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The Good / Bad News Cycle

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Take heart all you bears.

There's a pretty clear cycle that seems to be in motion, each time the cycle completes, the true outlook is a little more bearish.

Over the last few months, certainly since the 9th of August, there has been a clear chain of events, something like this:

10 Really bad thing happens

20 We all rejoice the coming EOTWAWKI

30 Someone spoils our fun by talking about rate cuts or actually cutting them

40 The bulls rejoice and the world's back like nothing ever happened

50 A little bit of reality comes along to temper their exuberance

60 Goto 10

70 Print "Oh dear, run for the hills"

At some point there will be a 15 Goto 70 and the cycle will end as we descend down to wherever we see this all ending up.

So don't lose heart, we're just sitting at line 40 right now. Line 50 has already started with some of the news today and we'll be back at 10 before you know and we'll all be partying like it's 1999 again :P

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Take heart all you bears.

There's a pretty clear cycle that seems to be in motion, each time the cycle completes, the true outlook is a little more bearish.

Over the last few months, certainly since the 9th of August, there has been a clear chain of events, something like this:

10 Really bad thing happens

20 We all rejoice the coming EOTWAWKI

30 Someone spoils our fun by talking about rate cuts or actually cutting them

40 The bulls rejoice and the world's back like nothing ever happened

50 A little bit of reality comes along to temper their exuberance

60 Goto 10

70 Print "Oh dear, run for the hills"

At some point there will be a 15 Goto 70 and the cycle will end as we descend down to wherever we see this all ending up.

So don't lose heart, we're just sitting at line 40 right now. Line 50 has already started with some of the news today and we'll be back at 10 before you know and we'll all be partying like it's 1999 again :P

A good post to read just before I switch off the computer. Ta! ;)

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Guest wrongmove

This has been a mega week for bears!

There has been a bank run that required intervention from the central bank!!!

The problem is that many here act like manic depressives - they get wildly over excited on every bit of news, then collapse into a big black hole when things swing back a bit.

Take a step back, and there is no question that the last few days have been the most bearish in a long, long time.

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