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zhinzhon

From Bear To Bull

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I have changed my profile, I am changing camps from bear to bull. I no longer believe the government or BofE will allow a house price crash only moderate falls and a squeeze on consumer spending.

HOUSE PRICE CRASH CANCELLED

Edited by zhinzhon

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Riiiight.

And conversly, all previous governments and members of the BoE who have presided over crashes, and similarly the Fed in the US, wanted there to be a crash.

Uh-huh.

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Judging by some of RB's posts on another thread he has had some sort of complete personality change - that being the case, he's likely to turn bull at any moment. When it happens this bull run in the housing market will be officially over.

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I have changed my profile, I am changing camps from bear to bull. I no longer believe the government or BofE will allow a house price crash only moderate falls and a squeeze on consumer spending.

This is a complete misinterpretation of the recent events. The housing slump will hit harder and faster than some here can imagine.

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I have changed my profile, I am changing camps from bear to bull. I no longer believe the government or BofE will allow a house price crash only moderate falls and a squeeze on consumer spending.

HOUSE PRICE CRASH CANCELLED

What a surprise :lol:

Ole! :P

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is this a sarcastic post? are you on drugs????

how can any sane person be a bull at this moment in time????

I am not sane, I have been driven mad by the VI new bulletins and government interference.

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I have changed my profile, I am changing camps from bear to bull. I no longer believe the government or BofE will allow a house price crash only moderate falls and a squeeze on consumer spending.

HOUSE PRICE CRASH CANCELLED

I too have also changed statust (from bear to "neither"). However, I believe that it is more a case of HOUSE PRICE CRASH POSTPONED (TO AT LEAST 2010)

Best,

Monty

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I have changed my profile, I am changing camps from bear to bull. I no longer believe the government or BofE will allow a house price crash only moderate falls and a squeeze on consumer spending.

HOUSE PRICE CRASH CANCELLED

It all depends what you mean by "moderate falls" and the scale of the "squeeze on consumer spending"

BUT (in my view) the evidence strongly indicates that continuing HPI has already been cancelled. The government and the Bank of England cannot control the economic forces currently at large. Evidence of a boom not followed by a bust is thin on the ground. There appears to be nothing to prevent a House Price Crash. (My definition of HPC I would be a 10-15% nominal fall in national average house prices over a 12 month period).

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Some of you, like the past few posters understand where I am coming from. I am NOT saying house prices will go up.

Instead, I am saying whenever it looks like a crash coming the 10-15% over 12 months seems a reasonable point fromt he last poster, then Gordon, Allaister, Merve the FSA will simply do whatever it takes to prevent it as we have seen with NR savers.

Gordon has built his rep on the miracle economy is he is going to make sure nothing serious (only small annual falls of less than 5% will occur).

If a crash is coming, then based on what I have seen, dont be surpised if the BofE turn around and drop interest rates. Seriously !

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Some of you, like the past few posters understand where I am coming from. I am NOT saying house prices will go up.

Instead, I am saying whenever it looks like a crash coming the 10-15% over 12 months seems a reasonable point fromt he last poster, then Gordon, Allaister, Merve the FSA will simply do whatever it takes to prevent it as we have seen with NR savers.

Gordon has built his rep on the miracle economy is he is going to make sure nothing serious (only small annual falls of less than 5% will occur).

If a crash is coming, then based on what I have seen, dont be surpised if the BofE turn around and drop interest rates. Seriously !

Have you seen the nonsense being posted by the likes of Webmaster today?

This forum has obviously been hacked and that presumably includes zhinzon's account.

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This is b****X how can you turn bull on housing?

cheap credit has gone LTV ratios are dropping.

Some of our main mortagage lenders cannot get money to lend

Price of oil rocketing

Price of wheat rocketing

You are confused

time to be bear on property

and a Bull on commodities (for a bit thanks to the Fed)

and a bull on stocks (for a bit thanks to the Fed)

and a bull on inflation

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Some of you, like the past few posters understand where I am coming from. I am NOT saying house prices will go up.

Instead, I am saying whenever it looks like a crash coming the 10-15% over 12 months seems a reasonable point fromt he last poster, then Gordon, Allaister, Merve the FSA will simply do whatever it takes to prevent it as we have seen with NR savers.

Gordon has built his rep on the miracle economy is he is going to make sure nothing serious (only small annual falls of less than 5% will occur).

If a crash is coming, then based on what I have seen, dont be surpised if the BofE turn around and drop interest rates. Seriously !

I take your point on board. I woke up to the "independent" BoE after the Aug '05 IR drop and (thanks to this site) how the "management" of the economy has promoted inflation (particularly HPI) since 9/11 while taking steps to conceal it from the public.

BUT

a) It's getting obvious to everyone what is going on eg Trade Unions noticing rising inflation double the official rate.

B) The media is losing its ability to shape opinion if the NR panic is anything to by. Few listened to the "experts" and the soothing tones from the BBC and went for their money.

c) Talk of a "correction" is now established in media talk.

d) Gordon, Alastair, Merv and FSA (and BBC) rhetoric appears to be blaming the US sub-prime market so they can be excused blame for HPC.

e) If BoE lowered base rates it is not likely that banks will follow by lowering theirs if they want to increase deposits - savers matter more than borrowers now that times have changed.

f) Based on recent events and recent Rightmove announcement of falling house prices if I was wanting to downsize or get rid of a BTL empire I would do so asap.

What I'm saying is that events are now overtaking everyone and they will play out regardless of what the UK government does

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The price of wheat ?

Wtf has wheat got to do with having a crash in the housing market. I am not the only one who is confused, am I ?

Wheat drives food inflation, not only in bread and pasta but meat as most livestock is fed on it. Even though this inflation is unlikely be allowed to show in the CPI (it should have had a big impact in this months figure) which would drive rates higher it will leave less money in people pockets. If wheat stays at over 3 times the price it was at in April you will soon understand.

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The price of wheat ?

Wtf has wheat got to do with having a crash in the housing market. I am not the only one who is confused, am I ?

Wheat drives food inflation, not only in bread and pasta but meat as most livestock is fed on it. Even though this inflation is unlikely be allowed to show in the CPI (it should have had a big impact in this months figure) which would drive rates higher it will leave less money in people pockets. If wheat stays at over 3 times the price it was at in April you will soon understand.

Yes you are the only one who is confused you are lacking some vital information unlike confounded who clearly has a bigger picture.

Just because the price of commodities has been low for decades is no reason they will stay low. In fact it is the exact reason that commodities are likely to sky rocket in the next few years.

You cannot just look at UK house prices in isolation there are far bigger forces at play in the global economy that will destroy house prices.

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It's interesting to see the mood change on here

Thursday: DOOM!!!!

Friday: DOOM!!!!

Saturday: DOOM!!!!

Sunday: DOOM!!!!

Monday: DOOM!!!!

Today: DOOM DOOMED!!!

Edited by Della

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I feel like I am being baited. I feel that market will drop, but it will not crash. From time to time, on hpc.co.uk, we have heard statements like "This is it" and Black Monday, Black Tuesday etc etc. i have even indulged myself. But to fair, it just isnt going to play out like that.

The hosuing market will drop and we will keep hearing house prices down x%, but I really doubt we are all going to wake up and see falls of 10% or more. Even the C4 news has been saying what I have been thinking. Housepricecrash is great website, with a catchy name, but it isnt going to occur in the UK.

Just a long series of small drops, possibly even 30% over the next 5-7 years, but this is not MY definition of a crash it is a slowdown and a return to sensible prices which is what I want.

Now, feel free to savage me. :lol:

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Jesus Zhinzon you've been here even less time than me and you've caved in already. Pussy! :P

Whos caved in. Not me, theres plenty of fight left in me yet. I am just no convinced we are hoing to see a house price crash, based on the evidence of government intervention of the last few days. My view may have been different if NR went bust, but they didnt, so it isnt.

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Whos caved in. Not me, theres plenty of fight left in me yet. I am just no convinced we are hoing to see a house price crash, based on the evidence of government intervention of the last few days. My view may have been different if NR went bust, but they didnt, so it isnt.

Fence it is then. :rolleyes:

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