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Gurgle

One-in-ten Chance Of Housing Crash

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...18/nrics118.xml

Peter Damesick, head of UK property research at CB Richard Ellis, said the chances of a housing market crash were still "pretty small" because there was no obvious trigger such as the economic downturn or sharp interest rate increases seen in the early 1990s.

I think he's been asleep for the past week...

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Obviously, they can't be taken seriously with quotes like this:

"Those interest rate rises now appear to have run their course, economists say, leaving the Bank of England with enough room to cut them if housing market conditions worsen significantly next year."

Yes, RICS, interest rates only are there to support ever rising house prices. Dork.

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They also said somewhere that they expected HPI to fall from a projected 10% to a mere 5% next year as a result of recent events.

Mmm 5% ain't bad. I think I'll buy. :lol:

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In the Evening Standard last night, I was amused by the so called "Expert Panels" opinion on HPI. The top man a Savill's said he thought there'd be a 20% increas in the top end with a 12% across the market as a whole.

I'm assuming that this guy was last asked his opinion in August 2005.

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The top man a Savill's said he thought there'd be a 20% increas in the top end with a 12% across the market as a whole.

Yes but he had his fingers crossed behind his back.

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In the Evening Standard last night, I was amused by the so called "Expert Panels" opinion on HPI. The top man a Savill's said he thought there'd be a 20% increas in the top end with a 12% across the market as a whole.

I'm assuming that this guy was last asked his opinion in August 2005.

The funny thing is that this is exactly what these people always do. They draw straight lines or use regression or some other useless piece of shit (not that regression analysis is useless for everthing but it has a hard time telling the future).

It's just that now their words are so exposed. Never mind. Not their fault; the market you see. Same thing happens every time they all get it wrong and that's because they never really get it right; it's like parallel comment, it bears no relation to reality at all.

How many fund managers make money during downtrends? These guys probably think their opinion makes a difference; they're doing their civic duty by talking shite.

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rofl! Too true!

Its too early to say if this is deffo "the trigger" but its too early to rule it out also...

The only trigger this character needs is the one that's about to shoot an elephant dick up his back passage. :lol:

Edited by dstars

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Ahhh... seems like only yesterday when they were talking about the average HP in the UK reaching 300k in just a couple of years time, 10x average wages by 2026, etc... how quickly sentiment changes - makes you wonder what they'll be saying in another couple of months time :o 50% chance of a HP slump? HPs at 3x average wages by 2012? Take your pick!

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Was there a trigger for a HPC in the US, or Ireland? Why does no one ask the "experts" why they think the UK is immune? (limited land, housing shortage, immigration blah, blah, blah).

Do they think its sustainable to have house prices in NI at higher levels than say London, or for people to pay out an even greater proportion of their salaries on mortgages?

They should bring back the stocks, lock the RICS and CML spokesmen in them and pelt them with rotten fruit all day, whilst filmed by BBC News 24.

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