crash2006 Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Well, after just 5 calander days of banking crisis, a warning from Greespan prices will drop, banking share drops and government turmoil it seems we are out of the woods. Shareprices are on the rise, interest rates are dropping and CPI is even under target and the BoE injecting much needed liquidity. That Government guarentee really p!ssed on the bonfire in here!GC2 didn't last as long as most people thought it would. Move along now, nothing the see hear. Its not over, money markets are not moving, people DO NOT WANT TO BUY DEBT now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minos Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Its not over, money markets are not moving, people DO NOT WANT TO BUY DEBT now. That's probably why they will lower rates in the US today. Hoping that unfreezes things a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madasafrog Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 (edited) Well, I can tell you for a fact that it doesn't take such a post to provoke the BTL/VI/Troll assault; very often just saying something that isn't what people want to hear is enough. In fact I've actually been told on here that I'm an unwelcome gatecrasher "at a party", which speaks volumes I think. I occasionally but rarely resort to suggesting that another poster is being less than truthful about their proclaimed motives for something they've said, and perhaps described the alternative interpretation that I feel fits more naturally, which I suppose can come close to being mildy insulting. But it would certainly be something I would feel comfortable saying to somebody's face, in the spirit of heated debate. As to personal insults, relating to the notion of infirmity, such as reference to "meds" etc - absolutely never. I have never made a direct personal attack on anyone like that. And yet, I see on another thread, I'm now ranked as an arch bull in disguise. A bull I am most certainly not. But I've explained that all the times I'm going to explain it. I have fell foul of this too. If you make a bearish post, everything is fine, but when posting anything slightly bullish, you can expect an angry response. A recent thread on ducardo just got thrown straight into the troll subforum!!! I have been on a few forums over the years and I can honestly say that there was nothing that he had posted that was offensive or trollish in behaviour. He is even a bear but he disagrees with some of the uber bear sentiments so into the troll forum you go. Its becoming a bear pit. Or maybe its a hangover from the party and there are a few "bears with sore heads" Edited for typos Edited September 18, 2007 by madasafrog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmarks Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 At the time of writing, even with assurances from the Chancellor, Northern Rock's share price only has only recovered by 6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methinkshe Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Its not over, money markets are not moving, people DO NOT WANT TO BUY DEBT now. Exactly - now the debt parcels have been found to contain a lot less than AAA contents, who in their right mind would buy them? The game is over because what has become known cannot be unknown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravity always wins Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 You know, I think you're right; I haven't seen anything yet. Well if you missed the run on Northern Rock Bank then you are probably likely to miss everything. Not very observant then are you or don't you think a run on a UK bank is very serious. If someone on here had said there was going to be a run on a UK bank a month ago you would have laughed them down as being a doom mongerer now that it has actually happened you hardly seem to notice. Me thinks the rest of the world noticed and judging by the pound they took more heed of it than you. try www.Ostrich.com you may feel more at home there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 I wonder if the Bulls are really as bothered about the possible change of tide as the Bears imagine. I have a BTL, and like many others bought the property many years ago when prices were much lower. Do I really care if prices fluctuate - no. As the market value of the property has risen I have not been thinking yipee I'm rich - conversly if it declines I won't be thinking I am in trouble. I will simply continue to as I have done these past few years, chipping away at the mortgage with the rent I receive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frozen_out Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 I wonder if the Bulls are really as bothered about the possible change of tide as the Bears imagine. I have a BTL, and like many others bought the property many years ago when prices were much lower. Do I really care if prices fluctuate - no. As the market value of the property has risen I have not been thinking yipee I'm rich - conversly if it declines I won't be thinking I am in trouble. I will simply continue to as I have done these past few years, chipping away at the mortgage with the rent I receive. I don't mean this to be rude, but you and people in your situation are irrelevant. Just like my sister who has £100k of equity in a property she bought for £35k in 1997. The fact that you bought many years ago means you bought in a sensible time, unlike many on here I have no problem with BTL landlords. You;re just trying to get along like everyone else. Good luck to you. However there are many people who bought since 2004 (both OO and BTL) who are/will be in trouble, it is these people that will turn sentiment and set the prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orbital Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 I wonder if the Bulls are really as bothered about the possible change of tide as the Bears imagine. I have a BTL, and like many others bought the property many years ago when prices were much lower. Do I really care if prices fluctuate - no. As the market value of the property has risen I have not been thinking yipee I'm rich - conversly if it declines I won't be thinking I am in trouble. I will simply continue to as I have done these past few years, chipping away at the mortgage with the rent I receive. yeah, but that's easy for us to say as home owners. If you are a priced out FTB or you gambled on STR then you do kinda need this to happen. I dont think people really want others to suffer, they are just interested in their own position. Its all still vested interest and greed, just from a different pov. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meow Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Welcome to the crash.It will be like this all the way to the bottom. Bulls jumping on any bit of good news and extrapolating it. Same as last time. Yes, doesn't the "past headlines of the late eighties/early nineties" bit of this site show the gradual change of sentiment, then big headlines interspersed with "nah, it's ok", then bigger headlines interspersed with "well it's not that bad" etc... etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meow Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 I think we have seen quite clearly that when the sh1te hits the fan the BoE / Government will do all they can to minimise the impact. So, given a choice between GC2 or 10 years of zero house price growth until salaries catch up, I know which they would prefer and will therefore engineer if all else fails... The government is the biggest VI in those whole charade anyway, hmmmm, I wonder if that could be erm... "used"... RIGHT! Drop the student debt or we all queue outside Alliance and Leicester!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bug16 Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 yeah, but that's easy for us to say as home owners. If you are a priced out FTB or you gambled on STR then you do kinda need this to happen. I dont think people really want others to suffer, they are just interested in their own position. Its all still vested interest and greed, just from a different pov. So, by your example, a starving man watching a fat pig eat until he vomits then eats some more at a banquet is the greedy one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Its becoming a bear pit. Edited for typos Well it is called www.housepricecrash.co.uk so the views of forum members shouldn't be a surprise to anyone (although it does go in the direction of apocalyptic, foaming-at-the-mouth rage sometimes). I'm amazed at the number of disgruntled non-bears (neither, bulls, whatever) on here who are upset because their views aren't always welcomed or applauded. Do you think the views of a butcher trying to promote steak would be welcome on www.vegan.com?? For me, all views are welcome as it usually leads to interesting debates but if you post bullish views you shouldn't be too surprised at the odd side-swipe from some members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirge Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Its becoming a bear pit. I love the bull/neither posts, the best part of this forum is watching the two sides give their views, i admit it the bears at times could be a little calmer... Without the bulls/neithers it would just be a big bear reacharound, and i dont wanna even think about that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madasafrog Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Well it is called www.housepricecrash.co.uk so the views of forum members shouldn't be a surprise to anyone (although it does go in the direction of apocalyptic, foaming-at-the-mouth rage sometimes). I'm amazed at the number of disgruntled non-bears (neither, bulls, whatever) on here who are upset because their views aren't always welcomed or applauded. Do you think the views of a butcher trying to promote steak would be welcome on www.vegan.com??For me, all views are welcome as it usually leads to interesting debates but if you post bullish views you shouldn't be too surprised at the odd side-swipe from some members. Its like being an arab at a barmitsfa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearbullfence Posted September 18, 2007 Author Share Posted September 18, 2007 (edited) Well, after just 5 calander days of banking crisis, a warning from Greespan prices will drop, banking share drops and government turmoil it seems we are out of the woods. Shareprices are on the rise, interest rates are dropping and CPI is even under target and the BoE injecting much needed liquidity. That Government guarentee really p!ssed on the bonfire in here!GC2 didn't last as long as most people thought it would. Move along now, nothing the see hear. He he... some interesting opinions in the thread with full range of views from the sky is falling to everything is rosy. Just to clarify my original post, and apologies as I was in a rush to click the submit button... I believe what we have seen over the last 5 days was the start of GC2. This tipping point would have, if left unchecked given the bears their 10 years of recession and houses worth nothing type scenario, I really think it would have. The one thing that happened that, to be fair many bears had forseen and had plenty of debate over, is that the Government stepped in to provide security to bank desposits. That is a whole new ball game, a government backing banks who have a poor business model is one of those paradigm shifting actions. Bank runs are pretty much prevented. God knows what will happen from here but it wont be the major meltdown we could have had. BTW - all this talk of neithers, bears, bulls... they're just labels, underneath we are all the same... nerds. I'm a neither, wishing I was a bear but expecting to be a bull. PS - Illiterate, hardley. Was typing quickly. Edited September 18, 2007 by bearbullfence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 (edited) Well it is called www.housepricecrash.co.uk so the views of forum members shouldn't be a surprise to anyone (although it does go in the direction of apocalyptic, foaming-at-the-mouth rage sometimes). I'm amazed at the number of disgruntled non-bears (neither, bulls, whatever) on here who are upset because their views aren't always welcomed or applauded. Do you think the views of a butcher trying to promote steak would be welcome on www.vegan.com??For me, all views are welcome as it usually leads to interesting debates but if you post bullish views you shouldn't be too surprised at the odd side-swipe from some members. Ah, so you're making the mistake of thinking the debates are expressions of what people would LIKE TO HAPPEN, rather than what they think WILL happen? Hence, any argument which suggests that the outcome is not the one you want, you take to be an assertion that it should happen, and hence you find it a provocation? Someone saying "people will eat meat" is not the same as "people should eat meat". Edited September 18, 2007 by Levy process Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toastie Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Ok, I'm no finanical expert, far from it, but i have been reading posts on here and some are saying the the correction in house prices will no longer happen, all because the bank of England bailed out the northern rock. I thought the housing correction was going to be due to credit tightening, which after the northern rock debacle is sure to tighten further. Am I wrong in thinking this? I would like to know as i have a reasonable deposit and need a house but due to the recent news i'm putting it off for 6 months to a year to see what happens. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks Richard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDFTB Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Well, after just 5 calander days of banking crisis, a warning from Greespan prices will drop, banking share drops and government turmoil it seems we are out of the woods. Shareprices are on the rise, interest rates are dropping and CPI is even under target and the BoE injecting much needed liquidity. That Government guarentee really p!ssed on the bonfire in here!GC2 didn't last as long as most people thought it would. Move along now, nothing the see hear. I think you've peaked too early mate.LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Well, after just 5 calander days of banking crisis, a warning from Greespan prices will drop, banking share drops and government turmoil it seems we are out of the woods. Shareprices are on the rise, interest rates are dropping and CPI is even under target and the BoE injecting much needed liquidity. That Government guarentee really p!ssed on the bonfire in here!GC2 didn't last as long as most people thought it would. Move along now, nothing the see hear. I'm getting so bored of these moronic 'it ain't happened, so never will posts' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benedict Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 BTW - all this talk of neithers, bears, bulls... they're just labels, underneath we are all the same... nerds. lol! No wonder it gets so tense in here, lets just hope nobody makes any assertions about which Star Trek was the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Crash Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Maybe they have to leave to recover their stamina, after putting up with being incorrectly labelled a BTL landlord, VI, Troll etc. on every second response to their posts. So which one are you then, eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Well, after just 5 calander days of banking crisis, a warning from Greespan prices will drop, banking share drops and government turmoil it seems we are out of the woods. Shareprices are on the rise, interest rates are dropping and CPI is even under target and the BoE injecting much needed liquidity. That Government guarentee really p!ssed on the bonfire in here!GC2 didn't last as long as most people thought it would. Move along now, nothing the see hear. Is 5 as high as you can count? The banking crisis started back in the beginning of August, therefore it's approaching 40 days and it's far from over. As far as I'm aware banks still aren't lending to each other and interbank rates are near 7%. That doesn't translate into cheap mortgages anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mybrainhurts Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Well, after just 5 calander days of banking crisis, a warning from Greespan prices will drop, banking share drops and government turmoil it seems we are out of the woods. Shareprices are on the rise, interest rates are dropping and CPI is even under target and the BoE injecting much needed liquidity. That Government guarentee really p!ssed on the bonfire in here!GC2 didn't last as long as most people thought it would. Move along now, nothing the see hear. "They rejoiced when the first plane hit the building, so I said to them: Be patient." (Osama bin Laden) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted September 18, 2007 Share Posted September 18, 2007 Ok,I'm no finanical expert, far from it, but i have been reading posts on here and some are saying the the correction in house prices will no longer happen, all because the bank of England bailed out the northern rock. I thought the housing correction was going to be due to credit tightening, which after the northern rock debacle is sure to tighten further. Am I wrong in thinking this? I would like to know as i have a reasonable deposit and need a house but due to the recent news i'm putting it off for 6 months to a year to see what happens. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks Richard The BoE has leant NR a loan which isn't on the kind of terms that NR is used to borrowing money - much higher interest and for as set period of time, designed to help them until money markets stabilise - but will they? Now goverment has backed all saves deposits but that won't save NR - this has given some stability back to the bank and prevented a complete run but the fact is that NR does not have a viable business model in an environment where money cannot be borrowed cheaply on the open markets. The effect of all this is that a mortgage lender, responsible for nearly 20% of new mortgage business - NR will no longer be able to lend 5-6X salaries at 125% of house price at low rates. This will remove a large chunk of people from the housing market and will exacerbate a house price crash which will exacerbate NR problems. NR will not exist outside of the next 6-12 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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