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Methinkshe

Sterling Crisis?

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I seem to remember cgnao recommending Canadian $ as an option to sterling. Does that still hold true or is the euro a better bet short term?

C$2.15 2 weeks ago

C$2.11 1 week ago

C$2.05 right now

C$ will tend to lag the USD. I don't see any rate cuts over there in the next 6 months, maybe one in the next 12 months. Until recently, forecast has been for C$ to fall slightly (a few cents) against the GBP early next year. Doubt that's the case anymore.

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C$2.15 2 weeks ago

C$2.11 1 week ago

C$2.05 right now

C$ will tend to lag the USD. I don't see any rate cuts over there in the next 6 months, maybe one in the next 12 months. Until recently, forecast has been for C$ to fall slightly (a few cents) against the GBP early next year. Doubt that's the case anymore.

Sterling now below USD2 and touching 1.44 against the Euro. Probably a buying opportunity according to the BBC !

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Thanks for the info. As a matter of interest, has Canada not suffered a similar HPI and sub-prime problem? Why is their currency considered less prone to devaluation?

I guess because they have less debt and more natural resources.... RB will no doubt tell you if thats correct... he seems to be the debt man here.

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Guest Popalot
Sterling now below USD2 and touching 1.44 against the Euro. Probably a buying opportunity according to the BBC !

Now at 1.99 and dropping....thanks Greenspan, my old mate!

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Thanks for the info. As a matter of interest, has Canada not suffered a similar HPI and sub-prime problem? Why is their currency considered less prone to devaluation?

Oil sands. Wheat belt.

HPI very mixed across Canada.

It's a big place. I mean you may think it’s a long way down the road to the chemist, but that’s just peanuts to Canada (with apologies to Douglas Adams).

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Try some Yen ?

The U.K. has an economy based on financial services, house price inflation,government

jobs and....not much else.

Japan on the other hand, makes stuff and exports it around the world .

For me the question is which country will fare best , given the likelyhood of a world recession.

Japan has no credit bubble to burst and will continue to bump along the bottom ,whereas the

U.K. has reached the tipping point. Gradually people will wake up to the fact that we are living

on a mountain of debt and we will see sentiment change over the next few months.It's

only a question of time before we see a run on the pound I believe.

I've seen the Yen at 131 to the GBP in 1995, 250 a few weeks ago and now 229.

I expect to see 180 before the end of April.

Btw, the yen is ideal for holding in hard cash I think, as interest rates are almost non- existant.Perfect mattress money!

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If you really want or need to hold cash, only CAD or CHF.

Don't have enough savings to make gold a worthwhile proposition at the moment, just rainy-day savings which I have just withdrawn from Nationwide and converted to Canadian dollars. Don't think I got a very good rate but at least I feel I'm doing something positive and who knows, if I wait six months or so I may even make a bob or two. Worth a punt, anyway.

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Sterling now below USD2 and touching 1.44 against the Euro. Probably a buying opportunity according to the BBC !

The state run BBC can kiss my left testicle.

Doesn't it have any re-runs of homes under the hammer it can repeat instead of giving financial advise?

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I had a look at O and A for opening an account but all though they keep clients deposits in a separate account they don't offer any insurance (sorry - can't find a link to the info now). Does anyone else have any links where it is possible to open an account in foreign currencies that would include CHF and C$ in the list of available currencies?

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Try some Yen ?

...

It's only a question of time before we see a run on the pound I believe.

I've seen the Yen at 131 to the GBP in 1995, 250 a few weeks ago and now 229.

I expect to see 180 before the end of April.

Btw, the yen is ideal for holding in hard cash I think, as interest rates are almost non- existant.Perfect mattress money!

I'm waiting desperately for the money to get into my current account so I can load up with some yen this week (mainly for my Japan trip in Nov, but also a little extra to stash away in Mrs christh's .jp bank account). I just can't see sterling going higher in a hurry what with all this banking nonsense going on at the moment. Although Gordie and gang's reassuring noises will have helped, unlike the previous hand-in-sand tactics in the Major years. I'm also wondering what effect the FED decision tomorrow may have on the GBP/Yen pairing, if any. Lemme buy my yen, then it can all go to the deuce for all I care. :P

10cc's Wall Street Shuffle comes to mind: 'You need a yen to make a mark' and of course 'Watch the greenbacks tumble / Feel the Sterling crumble'

PS. the wife is from Tokyo (ultra delayed response)

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Try some Yen ?

The U.K. has an economy based on financial services, house price inflation,government

jobs and....not much else.

Japan on the other hand, makes stuff and exports it around the world .

For me the question is which country will fare best , given the likelyhood of a world recession.

Japan has no credit bubble to burst and will continue to bump along the bottom ,whereas the

U.K. has reached the tipping point. Gradually people will wake up to the fact that we are living

on a mountain of debt and we will see sentiment change over the next few months.It's

only a question of time before we see a run on the pound I believe.

I've seen the Yen at 131 to the GBP in 1995, 250 a few weeks ago and now 229.

I expect to see 180 before the end of April.

Btw, the yen is ideal for holding in hard cash I think, as interest rates are almost non- existant.Perfect mattress money!

nice tip and very clearly explained for someone like me whos a bit of a pilot fish when it comes to money. thanks.

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While the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the national central banks remain in their possession, all gold and foreign exchange reserves are, under the terms of the Maastricht treaty, at the disposal of the ECB

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perceptions about Canada are very wrong in the UK. Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto are large cosmopolitan cities with expensive housing. That said there are still many places to live with very affordable housing. The real point to note is that Alberta is sitting on a sea of oil. The so called tar sands hold more heavy oil and bitumen than saudi does conventional oil.

Given that it looks like peak oil has arrived and given failires to develop the likes of Alaska and the eastern gulf of mexico its pretty clear the next major development in the oilfield will be in Alberta. The potential revenues are staggering and for that reason I am betting on Canadas currency becoming like the NOK.

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perceptions about Canada are very wrong in the UK. Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto are large cosmopolitan cities with expensive housing. That said there are still many places to live with very affordable housing.

And even those cities are still relatively cheap compared to London. The Canadian banks aren't as debt-crazed as the British ones, so HPI hasn't hit the country as badly, but there's still been a lot in the West thanks to the oil boom and elsewhere thanks to BTLs and flippers.

The other issue is that the Canadian government brings in about 200,000 immigrants a year, so that's nearly a 1% population growth per year. They're mostly skilled immigrants with money, not low-paid Poles, so they have to live somewhere.

The real point to note is that Alberta is sitting on a sea of oil. The so called tar sands hold more heavy oil and bitumen than saudi does conventional oil.

And it's useless as a means of avoiding peak oil problems because it's impossible to extract fast enough due to energy requirements and environmental issues; not to mention that the Albertans I know are getting fed up with the oil-fed boom in their cost of living... most of them don't see the oil money, but they have to pay the higher prices it's creating.

The oil sands are going to become a huge political issue in the next few years.

The potential revenues are staggering and for that reason I am betting on Canadas currency becoming like the NOK.

I think Canada will do better than Britain for the next decade (otherwise I wouldn't be here), but I think the Canadian dollar is overvalued right now. If America goes into a recession, then the East of Canada will follow and the West will be in trouble if reduced US spending causes a decline in resource usage.

That said, I wish I'd got the rest of my Sterling out of Britain last month...

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I had a look at O and A for opening an account but all though they keep clients deposits in a separate account they don't offer any insurance (sorry - can't find a link to the info now). Does anyone else have any links where it is possible to open an account in foreign currencies that would include CHF and C$ in the list of available currencies?

Barclays offers a pretty good UK based (not off-shore) 'currency deposit account', you can have it in almost any currency you want. To open it you need to have a sterling current account with them (easy to open) and then go to the forex counter at any barclays branch and as for the currency deposit account form to fill out to open one (it takes about a week to open).

As long as you have more than £2000 in currency equivalent deposited the account is free, including transfers in and out to your sterling account. It's a branch/phone account (no internet banking).

You will even get competitive quartely interest paid (for example they currently pay 1.5% on CHF which is the same as the best savings accounts in Switzerland).

Unfortunately the 'currency deposit account' is not documented at all on their website (they only document the Euro and US accounts which are sort of similar) but you can get some flyers with the T&Cs at the forex counter at a branch.

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Dare I mention CitiBank ?

Yes, they are US based, and might be involved in subprime, but the UK part is UK regulated/backed :blink:

Foreign Currency Deposit Accounts

http://www.citibank.co.uk/personal/banking...ing/foreign.htm

My view is that since the carry trade pushed the Yen down and the GBP, NZ$, Aus$ etc up, then when the GBP goes down, the Yen goes back up.

So my vote is for Yen ........ and Gold :)

Steve

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I just watched on BBC news showing how American Home owners were struggling, then they showed a UK home owner Struggling and they pointed out the FED was likely to drop rates to protect their home owners. I am sure they were suggesting the same would happened here so sterling may well take a hit for that. However because our house prices have not dropped and probably wont if the BOE steps in again then that could support sterling.

Interesting time ahead!

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