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What Happens If The Landlords All Sell?

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Overall market must fall, but what happens if your landlord gives you two months notice, per the contract. Number of available alternative rental properties would be falling rapidly if others think the same. The price falls will not be quick enough to keep up but what alternative are you left with other than to buy knowing that the market will drop further??

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Guest Shedfish
Unlikely with many landlords locked in because of negative equity. These will be desperate for tenants to keep helping their cashflow.

this is what happened in the early 90s - some first hand experience of that...

it's a bit like a stage dive where everyone gets out of the way

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Overall market must fall, but what happens if your landlord gives you two months notice, per the contract. Number of available alternative rental properties would be falling rapidly if others think the same. The price falls will not be quick enough to keep up but what alternative are you left with other than to buy knowing that the market will drop further??

Absolutely wrong.

You're not thinking logically.

Landlords are selling. Each property will be sold either another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

If a landlord sells to another landlord, there are the same number of rental properties available.

If a landlord sells to a current renter, that person will vacate a rental property, making it available.

If a landlord sells to an owner occupier, that person's previous house will become available to rent or to buy... If it is made available to rent, there will still be no shortage of rental property. If it is sold it will be sold either to another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

Ad infinitum.

No step of the process reduces the number of homes available to rent.

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Hint: Go to your local cash machine and get a tenner out. Then make way to the nearest auction house.

Then go to the nearest pub and ask for advice on the housing market and get just as accurate predictions.

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If I've been kicked out of my rental property and can't find another one to rent then I'll be a forced buyer. Wouldn't others be in this position?

You could be a forced sharer.

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If I've been kicked out of my rental property and can't find another one to rent then I'll be a forced buyer. Wouldn't others be in this position?

I think you need to see it from your landlord's point of view. Assume he is panicking and wants to sell. Reports over the last few weeks have suggested that, bizarrely, btlers are still taking out new mortgages. First time buyers aren't. If he wants to sell to a btler your continued presence as a tenant is a major selling point. If he has any sense he will accept a temporary rent reduction in exchange for you staying put. If he can't sell to a btler and decides to target the owner occupier market he is really stuffed in that he needs to get you out which cuts off his income stream; he needs to spend relatively serious money on doing the place up because he is selling to a buyers market so the place needs to look spick and span and - speaking as a tenant myself - tenanted houses tend to get treated pretty cavalierly by the average tenant, compared to the average owner occupier. So if he chucks you out he cuts off 100s a month in rent; he commits to spending at least a few 1000s doing the place up; and he may not sell anyway, or not sell for a year or more. So chucking you out is not necessarily his best option. There's the added complication that he has a lender breathing down his neck but that doesn't necessarily hurt your position. If your rent is covering the mortgage that may be an added incentive to him to do nothing. If it isnt the bank may prefer to let him reduce his payments rather than foreclose and crystallise their loss and drive the market further down.

In summary: its not time for anyone to panic yet and when we get to that stage your landlord may well have more to panic about than you do.

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Overall market must fall, but what happens if your landlord gives you two months notice, per the contract. Number of available alternative rental properties would be falling rapidly if others think the same. The price falls will not be quick enough to keep up but what alternative are you left with other than to buy knowing that the market will drop further??

Speaking as a landlord, who has been 'in the game' for a little over a decade, with a modest portfolio I have to ask the question - why would I want to sell?

I can't see a good reason (check my sig) so your question is a bit moot, really.

And ,of course, there are many, many landlords who are in a much stronger position than I am.

So a bit of a non question, really, a bit like the one about how many angels can stand on the head of a pin.

HTH (but it probably won't) :huh:

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Speaking as a landlord, who has been 'in the game' for a little over a decade, with a modest portfolio I have to ask the question - why would I want to sell?

I can't see a good reason (check my sig) so your question is a bit moot, really.

And ,of course, there are many, many landlords who are in a much stronger position than I am.

So a bit of a non question, really, a bit like the one about how many angels can stand on the head of a pin.

HTH (but it probably won't) :huh:

While I work to get a decent deposit together, I rent. I rent only from landlords who have been established for a long time.

The reason is quite simple. The rents are more realistic, and I'm not likely to lose tenancy due to a forced sale.

I would suggest it's a very pertinent question to ask how long the owner has had the property. I'm also quite cheeky and ask "You're not going to have to sell quickly if the property market takes a dive, are you?"

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Speaking as a landlord, who has been 'in the game' for a little over a decade, with a modest portfolio I have to ask the question - why would I want to sell?

Even if you own outright, if you sell now and prices drop 50% over the next five years, you can buy more than twice as many properties five years from now (since you'll make interest on the money in the meantime).

And ,of course, there are many, many landlords who are in a much stronger position than I am.

No, the good news is that most landlords think the way you do, and don't understand investment... that's particularly true of the new BTLs who are propping up the market and will be the first casualties when and if it crashes. Of course if the government do try to inflate the debts away they'll get bailed out by luck.

As for all the landlords selling, there are plenty of short-term alternatives for people who rent, such as lodging with a co-worker.

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Even if you own outright, if you sell now and prices drop 50% over the next five years, you can buy more than twice as many properties five years from now (since you'll make interest on the money in the meantime).

No, the good news is that most landlords think the way you do, and don't understand investment... that's particularly true of the new BTLs who are propping up the market and will be the first casualties when and if it crashes. Of course if the government do try to inflate the debts away they'll get bailed out by luck.

As for all the landlords selling, there are plenty of short-term alternatives for people who rent, such as lodging with a co-worker.

How do you know?

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Absolutely wrong.

You're not thinking logically.

Landlords are selling. Each property will be sold either another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

If a landlord sells to another landlord, there are the same number of rental properties available.

If a landlord sells to a current renter, that person will vacate a rental property, making it available.

If a landlord sells to an owner occupier, that person's previous house will become available to rent or to buy... If it is made available to rent, there will still be no shortage of rental property. If it is sold it will be sold either to another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

Ad infinitum.

No step of the process reduces the number of homes available to rent.

Unfortunately you will have plenty of landlords who 'think' they'll sell quickly, ask for you to move out and have property on market for months. This could cause lack of rentals. After a while if the market is completly flooded there may be more properties that are simultaneously on the market and being rented in.

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Unfortunately you will have plenty of landlords who 'think' they'll sell quickly, ask for you to move out and have property on market for months. This could cause lack of rentals. After a while if the market is completly flooded there may be more properties that are simultaneously on the market and being rented in.

Yes, true. Leaving properties uninhabited during a lengthy sale is the only way that landlords selling would cause a supply / demand imbalance for rental.

As you say, though, this is likely to be self-correcting once landlords realise how slow sales are.

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Absolutely wrong.

You're not thinking logically.

Landlords are selling. Each property will be sold either another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

If a landlord sells to another landlord, there are the same number of rental properties available.

If a landlord sells to a current renter, that person will vacate a rental property, making it available.

If a landlord sells to an owner occupier, that person's previous house will become available to rent or to buy... If it is made available to rent, there will still be no shortage of rental property. If it is sold it will be sold either to another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

Ad infinitum.

No step of the process reduces the number of homes available to rent.

Good point, but what if a FTB who is currently living at home with his parents buys this house? surely that is one scenario which will reduce the amount of properties available to rent

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Guest d23
Absolutely wrong.

You're not thinking logically.

Landlords are selling. Each property will be sold either another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

If a landlord sells to another landlord, there are the same number of rental properties available.

If a landlord sells to a current renter, that person will vacate a rental property, making it available.

If a landlord sells to an owner occupier, that person's previous house will become available to rent or to buy... If it is made available to rent, there will still be no shortage of rental property. If it is sold it will be sold either to another landlord, someone who is currently renting or a current owner occupier...

Ad infinitum.

No step of the process reduces the number of homes available to rent.

i hear you on the above, but what was it you think that drove rents up during the last crash?

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Ad infinitum.

No step of the process reduces the number of homes available to rent.

I was with you until that point.

You are saying that no matter how many LLs sell, the number of rental properties would remain the same? So how does the ratio of rented to OO properties fluctuate over time? Of course it creates a change. You are right in saying that it is a small change, and over time, but it is not Ad infinitum.

Causes of loss of rental unit include, in decending order of importance:

People leaving the parental home (mentioned before)

Divorced couples sell one home, (might) buy two.

Second homers.

Immigration (either wealthy foreigners, or successfull people moving out of an overcrowded Rackman home)

Reinstatement of family home formally subdivided into two units.

Speculators (Buy to Leave empty)

Ex students vacating halls of residence.

Brothel

Cannabis farm

Cgnao, to use as a gold vault.

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If I've been kicked out of my rental property and can't find another one to rent then I'll be a forced buyer. Wouldn't others be in this position?

only if you have no family to go to who can put you up for a while

only if you have no friends to go to who can put you up for a while

only if you dont have a car to sleep in

only if all the hotels/motels are full

only if you are 100% forced to stay in the country

no one will buy property if it is going down 10% YOY. wait one year and buy for 20k less!

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I was with you until that point.

You are saying that no matter how many LLs sell, the number of rental properties would remain the same?

what he is saying is that the only thing that will affect rental prices are net increase in population, net increase in density of living, net decrease in supply

as the number of properties per year is growing (as we build more than we destroy) there is no net decrease in supply.

density of living is how many people live to a home, data is hard to come by for that, but in a recession or just a slowdown the density will increase (pushing rents down). ie a student will decide to live at home instead of rented since his parents cant MEW to pay for him to live away!

net population increase, this is the only thing that can account for rents possible going higher. but do the other two outweigh it?

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How do you know?

Because if more landlords understood investment, they'd be seriously thinking about selling -- or would have sold already -- rather than hanging onto a declining asset through a crash.

Any landlord who's hanging onto a property now is betting that the Bank of England will ensure that 'house prices only ever go up', or at least that any fall will be small and short-lived. Now, betting is fine if you understand that's what you're doing, and I certainly can't say they're betting wrong at this point, but most of them don't even seem to understand that it's what they're doing.

That applies even more so to new BTLs who are likely to be buying right at the peak of this bubble. Sure, their 'executive apartment' might be worth more in twenty years than it is today, but that's an awfully long time to hang onto a poorly performing 'investment' before making any kind of profit.

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Because if more landlords understood investment, they'd be seriously thinking about selling -- or would have sold already -- rather than hanging onto a declining asset through a crash.

Any landlord who's hanging onto a property now is betting that the Bank of England will ensure that 'house prices only ever go up', or at least that any fall will be small and short-lived. Now, betting is fine if you understand that's what you're doing, and I certainly can't say they're betting wrong at this point, but most of them don't even seem to understand that it's what they're doing.

That applies even more so to new BTLs who are likely to be buying right at the peak of this bubble. Sure, their 'executive apartment' might be worth more in twenty years than it is today, but that's an awfully long time to hang onto a poorly performing 'investment' before making any kind of profit.

Hate to burst your bubble mate but:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=56015

Not that your argument held much water before this anyway.

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While I work to get a decent deposit together, I rent. I rent only from landlords who have been established for a long time.

The reason is quite simple. The rents are more realistic, and I'm not likely to lose tenancy due to a forced sale.

I would suggest it's a very pertinent question to ask how long the owner has had the property. I'm also quite cheeky and ask "You're not going to have to sell quickly if the property market takes a dive, are you?"

I would suggest rather than ask the landlord have a look at the Land Registry Web-site and you will also see teh identy of his mortgagee. YOu could put the mortgagee on notice of your tenancy and in the event of any repossession proceeding you would then know about the possible threat to your tenancy.

The Landlord will not object because he would have already advised the lender that he was letting it out.(believe that believe anything!)

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Hate to burst your bubble mate but:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=56015

Not that your argument held much water before this anyway.

Yawn... I see the site has attracted new trolls while I've been away.

Yes, a whole 14,000 BTL landlords looking to sell really disproves my argument. Why, that must be a large fraction of the landlords in Britain, right?

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