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greengreen

Rightmove Asking Prices Stats Are Misleading But

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I have always viewed the RM stats as misleading because of the fact that they simply track asking prices and are therefore not as reliable as stats from other sources.

Although I feel that there is a way to use the RM stats as an indication of sentiment.

Having read the thread about London falling, I then had a look at houseprices.uk.net and when you look at the HPI annual % chart for 2000 to 2007 you can see how the rightmove HPI moves above and below actual recorded HPI for some of the more reliable indexes. Notably as HPI reduces the RM HPI drops below the other indexes and on the way up as HPI rises the RM HPI moves to the middle or above the other indexes.

Essentially I see the RM stats as an indication of sentiment and a precursor to falling HPI. In the same way I dont see them as a precursor to rising HPI, its as if the annual HPI must increasing before the RM stats become more bullish. As the bullishness comes out of the market, homeowners expectations drop, EAs will want to make the sale and advise prices that are more realistic preying on the fears of sellers that the market is about to fall and therefore the RM stats will drop at a faster rate than the other indexes which then follow it.

I think that the RM stats will be interesting over the next few months. Apologies if I am stating the obvious or if you think that my analysis is nonsense.

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