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Has Anyone Else Noticed?

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Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

We are almost a month into what is alleged here on HPC to be a monumental crdit crunch. Yet all around I see houses and flats selling quickly, and people clearly having no trouble raising the necessary mortgage finance. It also seems to me that rents are rising at a frightening pace. It looks like the landlords have the upper hand and can raise rents when they need to.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Does anyone even believe there is a mortgage credit crunch happening?

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Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

We are almost a month into what is alleged here on HPC to be a monumental crdit crunch. Yet all around I see houses and flats selling quickly, and people clearly having no trouble raising the necessary mortgage finance. It also seems to me that rents are rising at a frightening pace. It looks like the landlords have the upper hand and can raise rents when they need to.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Does anyone even believe there is a mortgage credit crunch happening?

Errrrrrr Yes.

I do see what you mean about no crash yet though, although if you checked the media reports of the last crash you will also see the media failed to report it until we were in the thick of it.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

We are almost a month into what is alleged here on HPC to be a monumental crdit crunch. Yet all around I see houses and flats selling quickly, and people clearly having no trouble raising the necessary mortgage finance. It also seems to me that rents are rising at a frightening pace. It looks like the landlords have the upper hand and can raise rents when they need to.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Does anyone even believe there is a mortgage credit crunch happening?

Dear Smells,

What appears to be happening is that holders of these credit derivatives are all in a little huddle trying to work out new and devious means of marking to market which doesn't make them look like foolish twats. When we know how little they're worth and lenders tighten up who and how much they'll lend, coupled with a big wadge of resets which many can't afford then it'll be happening sure enough.

Any questions?

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Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

We are almost a month into what is alleged here on HPC to be a monumental crdit crunch. Yet all around I see houses and flats selling quickly, and people clearly having no trouble raising the necessary mortgage finance. It also seems to me that rents are rising at a frightening pace. It looks like the landlords have the upper hand and can raise rents when they need to.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Does anyone even believe there is a mortgage credit crunch happening?

Smell the VI !!!! :P:P

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Dear Smells,

What appears to be happening is that holders of these credit derivatives are all in a little huddle trying to work out new and devious means of marking to market which doesn't make them look like foolish twats. When we know how little they're worth and lenders tighten up who and how much they'll lend, coupled with a big wadge of resets which many can't afford then it'll be happening sure enough.

Any questions?

The fact is that UK borrowers are able to repay their debts with ease in most cases. Sure there are some casualties but not enough to damage the bottom line. So why would there be a credit crunch here?

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Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Hell no. Maybe by living and working in London my opinion may be skewed - but i am just seeing houses still shifting in quick time, at or above asking price/sealed bids. Business as usual it seems http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6986770.stm

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What I noticed today was "FOR SALE".

I didn`t see much "SOLD".

A lot of the "FOR SALE" signs have been there for months, as have the "SOLD" signs.

No VI or media report can alter my conclusion, property sales are slow, very slow.

Edited by Prof

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Au contraire, Eric. My VI is in a massive crash as I do not own any property.

I can't see the crash happening over a weeks, credit crunch on no. It is likely to take several months before it starts to look like a nationwide crash. In order for house prices to keep going up, there needs to b a fresh supply of people who are able to get mortgages at large multiples of their incomes (5/6). These are the types of people who will be affected by the sub-prime credit crunch. Sensible low income mortgages will still be available.

City types are also relient on large bonuses to keep mortgae payments up. These could be affected by the smc (more to come on this one).

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The fact is that UK borrowers are able to repay their debts with ease in most cases. Sure there are some casualties but not enough to damage the bottom line. So why would there be a credit crunch here?

using debt to repay debt, holding back the wolf from the door. This is how people are able to service the huge debts at the moment. Once credit is more difficult to come by, this will cease.

There was some guy on radio5 today claiming he was "playing the CC companies at their own game" using 60day 0% interest CC 'cheques' to pay off other CC bills and use other 0% CC deals to allow him to keep spending. Its all too easy at the moment. This guy was 30K in the red on CCs!!

This is the tip of the iceberg and when the crunch settles in for winter this sh*t will get ugly

Edited by DoctorJ

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
The fact is that UK borrowers are able to repay their debts with ease in most cases. Sure there are some casualties but not enough to damage the bottom line. So why would there be a credit crunch here?

I don't argue with cows.

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Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

We are almost a month into what is alleged here on HPC to be a monumental crdit crunch. Yet all around I see houses and flats selling quickly, and people clearly having no trouble raising the necessary mortgage finance. It also seems to me that rents are rising at a frightening pace. It looks like the landlords have the upper hand and can raise rents when they need to.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Does anyone even believe there is a mortgage credit crunch happening?

Sigh.

Still, we had some very nice soup this evening. Sweated some potatoes in butter, added some finely chopped onions and diced carrots, then added stock (from turbot bones at the weekend) and a little Finnish rye-bread (which broke up during boiling), simmered for 10 minutes then added diced salmon with a splash of cream and warmed this through before adding some dill. Magnificent.

Could have looked out of the window for the crash to arrive, but chose to watch the sunset instead.

Maybe tomorrow I'll look at the mountain range in the distance and see if I notice it growing in height - which it is. Hoping to gather a few chanterelles from the foothills which will go beautifully with some locally produced chicken.

Night night, sleep tight.

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Maybe tomorrow I'll look at the mountain range in the distance and see if I notice it growing in height - which it is. Hoping to gather a few chanterelles from the foothills which will go beautifully with some locally produced chicken.

That is actually a superb and rather bullish metaphor you have constructed. You are saying that the crash will happen, just not in our lifetimes.

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using debt to repay debt, holding back the wolf from the door. This is how people are able to service the huge debts at the moment. Once credit is more difficult to come by, this will cease.

Channel 4's "Britain's Debt Crisis" report a couple of weeks ago indicated personal debt levels are already at their highest ever level - and are now rising by a billion pounds every 5 minutes. Easy? I don't think so.

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That is actually a superb and rather bullish metaphor you have constructed. You are saying that the crash will happen, just not in our lifetimes.

Need to see if the mountains are volcanic.

Anyway, that soup really was magnificent.

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Channel 4's "Britain's Debt Crisis" report a couple of weeks ago indicated personal debt levels are already at their highest ever level - and are now rising by a billion pounds every 5 minutes. Easy? I don't think so.

MILLION Not BILLION!!!

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Just wondered if anyone else has picked up on this.

We are almost a month into what is alleged here on HPC to be a monumental crdit crunch. Yet all around I see houses and flats selling quickly, and people clearly having no trouble raising the necessary mortgage finance. It also seems to me that rents are rising at a frightening pace. It looks like the landlords have the upper hand and can raise rents when they need to.

Does anyone really believe a crash is starting?

Does anyone even believe there is a mortgage credit crunch happening?

Almost a month? But I want it NOW. Can I put it on my credit card?

Edited by Bear Goggles

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The fact is that UK borrowers are able to repay their debts with ease in most cases. Sure there are some casualties but not enough to damage the bottom line. So why would there be a credit crunch here?

agree - no crash as yet and things around here seem to have sold in the last couple of weeks

disagree - working in the sub-prime industry at present I can assure you there is one hell of a crunch underway

and yes, if people don't pay their other bills they seem to be able to pay their mortgages

edited 'cos I can't speak english!

Edited by the end is nigh

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Guest wrongmove
agree - no crash as yet and things around here seem to have sold in the last couple of weeks

disagree - working in the sub-prime industry at present I can assure you there is one hell of a crunch underway

and yes, if people don't pay their other bills they seem to be able to pay their mortgages

edited 'cos I can't speak english!

There is clearly a subprime crunch going on, but will this be enough to crash the market?

I'm not convinced. Subprime is officially about 8% of the market. Let's assume this is an underestimate, and it's really about 15%, and the crunch reduces it to 5%.

So 10% of wannabee buyers are turned away.

This would take mortgage approvals down to say 100k from 110-120k now.

This would reduce HPI well below double figures, but would not take it negative.

the end is nigh - you are in the industry - could you estimate how many potential buyers will be turned away by the crunch? My figures are just guesses.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Sub prime or no sub prime, all I know the market in my area has come to a halt.

Estate Agents are now closing on Sundays, all except 1 out of the 9 in the Town Centre, and the loner is manned by just 1 member of staff.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
It's a bubble market, they always crash.

I agree with the exception of Gold, it will become the new world currency, 100% Guaranteed. ;)

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