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Realistbear

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/10092007/325/house-prices-july.html

Monday September 10, 09:44 AM

House prices up in July
LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in Britain rose 12.4 percent year-on-year in July compared with a 12.1 percent increase in June, government data showed on Monday.
That took the average house price to 218,479 pounds.
The figures from the Department for Communities and Local Government are based on sale completions and thus lag other surveys.
Recent reports from mortgage lenders suggest house price inflation has remained robust in the face of rising interest rates although most lenders expect the market to slow later this year.

These kinds of figures pervaded the US market for months as prices continued to drop. Why? Fewer, more expensive, homes are skewing the data. Or, they are fibbing to prevent a panic. Who DO you believe these days?

IN the meantime, its like one of those budget horror films where they kill off the monster and the hero and heroin embrace--then the monster comes back alive again for one more go before finally being finished off.

The good news is that Merv will be hiking in October now that he sees IR have no impact whatsoever on the borrowing habits of the sheeple. :lol:

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest grumpy-old-man
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/10092007/325/house-prices-july.html

Monday September 10, 09:44 AM

House prices up in July
LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in Britain rose 12.4 percent year-on-year in July compared with a 12.1 percent increase in June, government data showed on Monday.
That took the average house price to 218,479 pounds.
The figures from the Department for Communities and Local Government are based on sale completions and thus lag other surveys.
Recent reports from mortgage lenders suggest house price inflation has remained robust in the face of rising interest rates although most lenders expect the market to slow later this year.

These kinds of figures pervaded the US market for months as prices continued to drop. Why? Fewer, more expensive, homes are skewing the data. Or, they are fibbing to prevent a panic. Who DO you believe these days?

IN the meantime, its like one of those budget horror films where they kill off the monster and the hero and heroin embrace--then the monster comes back alive again for one more go before finally being finished off.

The good news is that Merv will be hiking in October now that he sees IR have no impact whatsoever on the borrowing habits of the sheeple. :lol:

exactly RB.

just think how the data watchers on here will feel next year when some of the stats get "updated", showing falls where gains had been previously. :ph34r:

Look to the US, we will be in for the same, actually no, we will get much, much worse.

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Bovis are, in effect, saying that Mervs efforts have been in vain:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...bcnbovis110.xml

Bovis Homes enjoys rise in profits
By Richard Blackden
Last Updated: 9:38am BST 10/09/2007
Housebuilder Bovis Homes has seen
first-half profits rise as five interest rate increases from the Bank of England fail
to cool the housing market.

With freely available cheap credit it is little wonder IR have been somewhat of a joke in the marketplace.

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I hope you're right RB. I hope that the Monkey Policy Committee will realise they're useless and hike the IR next month.

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exactly RB.

just think how the data watchers on here will feel next year when some of the stats get "updated", showing falls where gains had been previously. :ph34r:

Look to the US, we will be in for the same, actually no, we will get much, much worse.

Your pessimism (or is it your optimism?) makes me smile! :)

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These kinds of figures pervaded the US market for months as prices continued to drop. Why? Fewer, more expensive, homes are skewing the data. Or, they are fibbing to prevent a panic. Who DO you believe these days?

Bulls eye!

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And guess how the BBC have chosen to spin the story...

"Home price inflation 'picking up'

Prices are rising faster, contrary to expectations

Average house prices in the UK are accelerating again, according to the Communities and Local Government department (DCLG).

Its latest survey shows that in July prices across the country rose by 2% to an average of £218,479.

That pushed the annual rate of inflation up from 12.1% to 12.4%, its highest since March 2005.

The main factor was soaring prices in London, where house price inflation is now 19.1%, and the South East.

In the South East the inflation rate rose from 10.7% to 11.9%.

Outside those two areas, prices in the UK in fact slowed down and were rising at a rate of just 10.6% a year, compared to 10.9% in June.

This latest pick up in average UK house prices comes despite higher mortgage costs due to the five increases in interest rates that the Bank of England has imposed since August 2006.

It also contradicts the opinions of mortgage lenders such as the Nationwide and the Halifax who have argued that property prices are starting to slow down, although their claims were based on survey evidence from August. "

More fuel for the fire - make sure the last blindfolded sheeple are herded in..

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Let’s see … 12.4% YoY – that means that the crash is here, but it’s invisible because of some mysterious ‘data skew’ (not true, CLG is mix-adjusted) and the evil VIs are hiding the real crash by telling us all porkies. :lol:

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I wonder how many of these were parts of chains starting in March etc?

Again and again, media never really telling the full story.

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Again and again, media never really telling the full story.

At least they got the data source right - CLG, mortgage completions, and didn't pretend this is from LR (thread title).

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This is great news for us, we complete in October.

The more good news, the less likely someone will pull out.

After that, free fall with any luck. B)

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And guess how the BBC have chosen to spin the story...

"Home price inflation 'picking up'

Prices are rising faster, contrary to expectations

Average house prices in the UK are accelerating again, according to the Communities and Local Government department (DCLG).

Its latest survey shows that in July prices across the country rose by 2% to an average of £218,479.

That pushed the annual rate of inflation up from 12.1% to 12.4%, its highest since March 2005.

The main factor was soaring prices in London, where house price inflation is now 19.1%, and the South East.

In the South East the inflation rate rose from 10.7% to 11.9%.

Outside those two areas, prices in the UK in fact slowed down and were rising at a rate of just 10.6% a year, compared to 10.9% in June.

This latest pick up in average UK house prices comes despite higher mortgage costs due to the five increases in interest rates that the Bank of England has imposed since August 2006.

It also contradicts the opinions of mortgage lenders such as the Nationwide and the Halifax who have argued that property prices are starting to slow down, although their claims were based on survey evidence from August. "

More fuel for the fire - make sure the last blindfolded sheeple are herded in..

What a load of ********, you guys are deluded sometimes. If that was bear material i.e "Prices down 0.4%" we would print it on a banner and dance naked round the streets of london and setting fire to bulls and cheering!!

This is surely bad news, it says in light of all past events, prices continue to rise and would have to fall dramatically before the end of the year to prove your crash 2nd Q 2007 theory.

Doesnt matter if the goverment are fiddling the figures does it, because the media believe and therefore so do the sheeple unless your a HPC regular of course. So when this gets printed tomorrow every stupid plucker is going to carry on pushing this bandwagon!!!!!!

Fecking great, Mortgage companies are going under, because everyones heard of Victoria havent they!!!

There is nothing to see hear, people would do well not to read a post that has been completely swung round in favour of the bears (even though it is as bullsih as you like), pull down their pants and jack off all over it!!

HPC NEWS - No news, property in the nations eyes continues to rise 5 times faster than inflation, we all hope for a crash but surely it would have been or at least started already!!! Joke

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Or, they are fibbing to prevent a panic. Who DO you believe these days?

Good question.

I chose NOT to believe the opinons of those who have been claiming the crash has already started or is imminent, for years. ;)

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I hope you're right RB. I hope that the Monkey Policy Committee will realise they're useless and hike the IR next month.

No chance.

Not one little chance.

Not even a tiny chance from the kingdom of tiny chances.

They are just useless.

Mind you, maybe the MPC are thinking that if they raise IR, then the target rate will be closer to the Libor rates.... so they might just do it do ease other problems! lol

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This is bad news, but July seems such a long time ago. A lot has happened since, but it will give the VI press another opportunity to claim that the housing market remains "firm" or "robust."

This is so like 1998/1999 when the official stats were claiming rises when it was apparent to house sellers, that the tide was rapidly going out.

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These figures don't make pretty reading.

Spline - I thought these were based on LR data. If so then why are the figures so different to the LR report?

Note - I would respectfully ask no-one other than Spline to reply to this question asbI've had "the figures are made up don't believe them" up to my ears, thanks

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/10092007/325/house-prices-july.html

Monday September 10, 09:44 AM

House prices up in July
LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in Britain rose 12.4 percent year-on-year in July compared with a 12.1 percent increase in June, government data showed on Monday.
That took the average house price to 218,479 pounds.
The figures from the Department for Communities and Local Government are based on sale completions and thus lag other surveys.
Recent reports from mortgage lenders suggest house price inflation has remained robust in the face of rising interest rates although most lenders expect the market to slow later this year.

These kinds of figures pervaded the US market for months as prices continued to drop. Why? Fewer, more expensive, homes are skewing the data. Or, they are fibbing to prevent a panic. Who DO you believe these days?

IN the meantime, its like one of those budget horror films where they kill off the monster and the hero and heroin embrace--then the monster comes back alive again for one more go before finally being finished off.

The good news is that Merv will be hiking in October now that he sees IR have no impact whatsoever on the borrowing habits of the sheeple. :lol:

Q2 07 ?

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These figures don't make pretty reading.

Spline - I thought these were based on LR data. If so then why are the figures so different to the LR report?

Note - I would respectfully ask no-one other than Spline to reply to this question asbI've had "the figures are made up don't believe them" up to my ears, thanks

Here's the direct link to the dclg press release Tuffers:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/news/corporate/467625

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I hope you're right RB. I hope that the Monkey Policy Committee will realise they're useless and hike the IR next month.

No chance. The BoE are only interested in inflation, and with the downward pressure on inflation now (cost of raw materials fell today to 0.5% increase) then it's likely if anything that interest rates could fall and we are at the peak of the cycle.

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And guess how the BBC have chosen to spin the story...

"Home price inflation 'picking up'

Prices are rising faster, contrary to expectations

Average house prices in the UK are accelerating again, according to the Communities and Local Government department (DCLG).

Its latest survey shows that in July prices across the country rose by 2% to an average of £218,479.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6986770.stm

The BBC really ought to be shot for that. Totally irresponsible Beeb "press release" reporting.

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If this data is based on mortgage completions for July then we are looking at deals struck in April - its is lagging data. I think Hometrack gives the best leading indicator. DONT PANIC - mind you I hope those useless gits on the MPC take this on board.

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These CLG figures are taken from mortgage completions in July. They are mix-adjusted (contrary to RB’s suggestion ;) ) but are not seasonally adjusted and would be up slightly in July, although this would not alter the YoY. But as others have said, HPI is on a gradual downward trend and you would expect a lagged figure to be higher.

Tuffers, As for the differences between LR-HPI sold price RSR and the CLG completions price – the two curves have diverged slightly, with CLG drifting down slightly (although still mirroring Rightmove quite well), but the gap is now gradually closing again. The FT-HPI for recent months is based on a *forecast*, not the actual LR sold prices, but contains quite a heavy ‘smoother’ which prevents it from responding to recent jumps, for example those reflected in RM asking prices.

Graphs showing the new CLG regional breakdown are here:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/odpm_regional/

Edited by spline

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Or, they are fibbing to prevent a panic. Who DO you believe these days?

Oh the irony!

Realist "I sold all my gold at the 1980 peak and shorted the pound just before my mate George Soros" Bear you really should change your name.... how about FantasistBear?

Edited by sossij

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