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If The Us Goes Into Recession, Is The Uk 100% Certain To Follow?

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If the US goes into recession, is the UK 100% certain to follow?

Also, if the BoE drops rates, is housing certain to rise?

Yes and no.

The Economist recently ran a report on the prospects for recession and their conclusion was that a US recession would almost inevitably spill over into the UK.

A rate cut however, even back down to say 4.5% may not trigger any further house price increases. A rate cut is likely to be because of an economic slowdown which will trump a rate cut, credit is still tightening and there's a growing premium on mortgages over the base rate, and there's still the little problem that at today's prices houses are increasingly too unnafordable to sustain demand.

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I think that the Uk has to follow the US. We no longer have a useful manufacturing base. Our economy is based on financial services, media and debt. As Brown struggles with the national debt it will dawn on him that he can only raise taxes so much further before civil unrest. He can cut investment and more importantly he will ditch many off the useless civil service jobs he created to keep employment numbers rosy. The clunking fist will be seen as the most irresponsible, lying chancellor ever. A con artist who has duped the public into believing his numbers. It still amazes me that the man on the street buys into his claims of stable economy, low inflation, no more boom and bust crap. I hope he is sitting in No. 10 watching the debt market turmoil and realises the cause and consquences of what he has done. As a servant to the public ( not the other way round as Labour seem to think ) he should be held accountable for what is to come.

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If the US goes into recession, is the UK 100% certain to follow?

If...IF...what do you mean IF?

They've been in recession all year.

...o sorry, you probably believe the official numbers.

The answer is yes.

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If America sneezes Europe catches pneumonia. The UK is also worse off as we are reliant on one industry now. An industry which has always been famously creative at not pulling its weight in taxation in the best of times,

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If the US goes into recession, is the UK 100% certain to follow?

Also, if the BoE drops rates, is housing certain to rise?

No

?

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Yes, we will most certainly go into recession as indeed will many other nations such as China and India.

The whole financial swindle we have seen over the past decade under New Labour has been one of cloak and mirrors, they would argue that the old financial principles of yesteryear are long gone. However this same logic was applied to the Dotcom situation.

Effectively business uses borrowed money to smooth the period during which the make purchases or invest in work and then at a later date take payment. If this money dries up, or becomes more expensive then the business can easily fail.

When the US tanks, the knockon is wide and far reaching, more so today as we live in a truly Global Economy coupled with information flows that in yesteryear would take days to filter through, now takes milliseconds.

I'm afraid its one down, all down!!!!.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
If...IF...what do you mean IF?

They've been in recession all year.

...o sorry, you probably believe the official numbers.

The answer is yes.

I agree wisebear. I think the US have been slowing down for a while, it all depends whether you believe the stats & numbers doesn't it.

I don't believe them or the UK inflation or unemployment figures either. :ph34r:

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