Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Guest wrongmove

Halifax Confirms Housing Bubble Is Bursting

Recommended Posts

Guest wrongmove

You don't see headlines like that every day!

Halifax confirms housing bubble is bursting

"

More evidence emerged yesterday that the UK's booming property market is slowing down. Average house prices rose by 0.4 per cent in August but the inc-rease was down from July, according to the regular Halifax house price survey.

The August rise took the annual rate of house price inflation to 11.4 per cent and the average house price to £199,770. The monthly rise in house prices was half that recorded in July, when prices increased by an upwardly revised 0.8 per cent and the annual rate of house price inflation was 11.2 per cent. There is increasing evidence that affordability constraints are at last beg-inning to moderate the housing bubble.

Martin Ellis, chief economist at HBOS Halifax, said: "While the market remains robust, this provides further evidence that house price inflation has slowed since the beginning of the year.

The downward trend in house price growth is expected to continue over the remainder of 2007 as the five interest rate rises since last summer have an increasing impact on household spending and housing demand. Sound economic fundamentals, high levels of employment and a shortage in the number of properties available for sale will, however, continue to support house prices."

Month-to-month house price figures can be volatile. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's preferred measure of house price inflation is the average of the three-month growth rates of Halifax and Nationwide. This fell to 1.7 per cent in August from 1.8 per cent in July. Most observers agree with the Halifax that the housing market will cool further this year but they also think a further move on rates by the Bank may be necessary."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You don't see headlines like that every day!

Halifax confirms housing bubble is bursting

"

More evidence emerged yesterday that the UK's booming property market is slowing down. Average house prices rose by 0.4 per cent in August but the inc-rease was down from July, according to the regular Halifax house price survey.

The August rise took the annual rate of house price inflation to 11.4 per cent and the average house price to £199,770. The monthly rise in house prices was half that recorded in July, when prices increased by an upwardly revised 0.8 per cent and the annual rate of house price inflation was 11.2 per cent. There is increasing evidence that affordability constraints are at last beg-inning to moderate the housing bubble.

Martin Ellis, chief economist at HBOS Halifax, said: "While the market remains robust, this provides further evidence that house price inflation has slowed since the beginning of the year.

The downward trend in house price growth is expected to continue over the remainder of 2007 as the five interest rate rises since last summer have an increasing impact on household spending and housing demand. Sound economic fundamentals, high levels of employment and a shortage in the number of properties available for sale will, however, continue to support house prices."

Month-to-month house price figures can be volatile. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's preferred measure of house price inflation is the average of the three-month growth rates of Halifax and Nationwide. This fell to 1.7 per cent in August from 1.8 per cent in July. Most observers agree with the Halifax that the housing market will cool further this year but they also think a further move on rates by the Bank may be necessary."

Bursting? What the Halifax really said was:

More evidence emerged yesterday that the UK's booming property market is slowing down. Average house prices rose by 0.4 per cent in August but the inc-rease was down from July, according to the regular Halifax house price survey.

Soaring 0.4% in a traditionally slow holiday month is not exactly bursting. In fact it shows HPI is bouyant and likely to steam ahead as the Autumn buying season begins. More so as tens of thousands more buyers stream accross our Frontier looking to buy up properties and place pressure on what Paragon described yesterday as a hot BTL market.

Its a miracle doncha know?

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest wrongmove
Bursting? What the Halifax really said was:
More evidence emerged yesterday that the UK's booming property market is slowing down. Average house prices rose by 0.4 per cent in August but the inc-rease was down from July, according to the regular Halifax house price survey.

Soaring 0.4% in a traditionally slow holiday month is not exactly bursting. In fact it shows HPI is bouyant and likely to steam ahead as the Autumn buying season begins. More so as tens of thousasnds of more buyers stream accross our Frontier looking to buy up properties and place pressure on what Paragon described yesterday as a hot BTL market.

I agree - the title and the article don't really match very well.

But it's not your job to point this out RB. Hadn't you better change your label to neither, blah, blah, blah...?

:P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree - the title and the article don't really match very well.

But it's not your job to point this out RB. Hadn't you better change your label to neither, blah, blah, blah...?

:P

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest wrongmove
hmmm...so no prices falling this yr, just that house price growth will slow.

The YoY figure should drop pretty dramatically over the next few months - there were some big MoM rises posted last autumn which will drop out of the figs (unless they get repeated, which seems very unlikely).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Soaring 0.4% in a traditionally slow holiday month is not exactly bursting. In fact it shows HPI is bouyant and likely to steam ahead as the Autumn buying season begins. More so as tens of thousands more buyers stream accross our Frontier looking to buy up properties and place pressure on what Paragon described yesterday as a hot BTL market.

Its a miracle doncha know?

Cant the moderators remove this troll?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bursting? What the Halifax really said was:
More evidence emerged yesterday that the UK's booming property market is slowing down. Average house prices rose by 0.4 per cent in August but the inc-rease was down from July, according to the regular Halifax house price survey.

Soaring 0.4% in a traditionally slow holiday month is not exactly bursting. In fact it shows HPI is bouyant and likely to steam ahead as the Autumn buying season begins. More so as tens of thousands more buyers stream accross our Frontier looking to buy up properties and place pressure on what Paragon described yesterday as a hot BTL market.

Its a miracle doncha know?

Have you kidnapped RB and got him bound and gagged in the basement? let him back on now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bursting? What the Halifax really said was:
More evidence emerged yesterday that the UK's booming property market is slowing down. Average house prices rose by 0.4 per cent in August but the inc-rease was down from July, according to the regular Halifax house price survey.

Soaring 0.4% in a traditionally slow holiday month is not exactly bursting. In fact it shows HPI is bouyant and likely to steam ahead as the Autumn buying season begins. More so as tens of thousands more buyers stream accross our Frontier looking to buy up properties and place pressure on what Paragon described yesterday as a hot BTL market.

Its a miracle doncha know?

Pot, kettle, black :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had the Nationwide out yesterday on the BBC saying how hard consumer confidence had been hit and that the housing market was slowing and would mean the BOE does not need to raise rates.

Halifax put their spin out, as RB says, on 0.4% in a traditional quiet month (although it should be seasonally adjusted) that the housing market is at threat.

It is probably the most coordinated effort by the VI's to convince the BOE that their work is done, however it may back fire as most readers/listeners will take it at face value and I am sure this will add to the already changing sentiment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We had the Nationwide out yesterday on the BBC saying how hard consumer confidence had been hit and that the housing market was slowing and would mean the BOE does not need to raise rates.

Halifax put their spin out, as RB says, on 0.4% in a traditional quiet month (although it should be seasonally adjusted) that the housing market is at threat.

It is probably the most coordinated effort by the VI's to convince the BOE that their work is done, however it may back fire as most readers/listeners will take it at face value and I am sure this will add to the already changing sentiment.

I was being a bit sarky in my posts on this thread. I think this post sums it up--its all for the benefit of the BoE who the VIs know rely on their data to make a decision on rates. Watching Bloomberg today and they were talking about central bankers and praising the professionalism of the ECB in particular. They contrasted the BoE which they said was not made up of professional bankers although Merv was a nice academic chap.

I read the data that they take into account and its almost all VI stuff and in-house propaganda. No wonder they are so clueless. We need an independent BoE such as the ECB or even the Fed which is made up of experienced professional bankers who do not live in academic Ivory Towers. The Muppets are just a reflection of their creator and Gordon's only claim to fame as an economist is that he copied Big Al's every step along the way to the biggest credit bubble in history.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well they might have gone up 0.4% in August elsewhere, someone should tell the people where I live.

The market is now absolutely stagnant. House up the road just fallen through after a Sold sign has been up for 6 months. House round corner been on market now for 5 months. House directly opposite on market now since before Christmas.

But, and here's a funny thing - that again scuppers the boring supply/demand argument ... there are very few new properties coming on the market yet those on the market are not selling. Local estate agents windows have the same property in them two or even three times.

Is it HIPs (a lot of stuff where I live is 3 bed detached or bigger) or is it that people can't afford to move up, so they're not even thinking of moving. I foresee a long, dark winter of stagnation and falling prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alternative headline: "Why there's no need to raise rates today.".

Exactly, wouldn't surprise me if that were indeed their motivation.

:rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Shedfish
I agree - the title and the article don't really match very well.

But it's not your job to point this out RB. Hadn't you better change your label to neither, blah, blah, blah...?

:P

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

when i read the OP and RB's response something in my head went pop

this 'parallel universe' thing, there might be something in it after all. just popping outside to see what car i have today..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You don't see headlines like that every day!

Halifax confirms housing bubble is bursting

"

Month-to-month house price figures can be volatile. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's preferred measure of house price inflation is the average of the three-month growth rates of Halifax and Nationwide. This fell to 1.7 per cent in August from 1.8 per cent in July. Most observers agree with the Halifax that the housing market will cool further this year but they also think a further move on rates by the Bank may be necessary."

Drop out the Nationwide stats and the three month rolling increase has accelerated to 1.6% in August from 1.4% in July on the Halifax's measure.The Halifax stats were pretty positive so it is annoying they always go with the negative propaganda to reign back rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with crashmonitor – it looks to me like a slow decline in HPI following the mortgage approvals trend but Halifax are down-spinning it quite hard. I was predicting £200.2k SA with std-dev around £0.5k, but the actual outcome was slightly lower at £199.8k but well within the confidence limits; that’s either real volatility or a suggestion that the wedge between approvals and HPI feed-through may be widening slightly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 355 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.