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The End Of The Bull Run For Property & Stock Markets

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In the last five years the FTSE 100 has doubled to 6315 points today. However, the party is officially over.

Driving this afternoon on the way to get my car MOT'ed, I tuned into BBC Radio 4 to here the first episode of the new series of moneybox live. In the past they have always been farily bullish about investing in property and putting cash in to the stock market.

This new series the "expert" Alan Warner was bearish. When a caller was asking would putting money into shares in the stock market, he indicated that the bull run we have seen in the past 5 years will not repeat over the next 5 years.

He said this throughout the programme at least twice and possible even as many as four times.

He also indicated that property has become "Less atractive" as a investment lately and would remain so for some time to come.

When asked what would make a good investment, his reply was simple. Shop around for a good rate on a ISA as it is tax free and also look for high yied corporate bonds. Very bearish.

The bull run on the stock market and housing market is over. Now is a period of years where we will see volitility in both markets.

House prices around most of country are also slipping.

My point is, I dont think we see a crash, more of a long slippery decline back to 2001 levels in the hosuing market, however this will happen over 5 years and not 5 weeks.

Listen to the programme and judge the mood for yourself. Link below.

Source :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod....o4/moneyboxlive

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In the last five years the FTSE 100 has doubled to 6315 points today. However, the party is officially over.

Driving this afternoon on the way to get my car MOT'ed, I tuned into BBC Radio 4 to here the first episode of the new series of moneybox live. In the past they have always been farily bullish about investing in property and putting cash in to the stock market.

This new series the "expert" Alan Warner was bearish. When a caller was asking would putting money into shares in the stock market, he indicated that the bull run we have seen in the past 5 years will not repeat over the next 5 years.

He said this throughout the programme at least twice and possible even as many as four times.

He also indicated that property has become "Less atractive" as a investment lately and would remain so for some time to come.

When asked what would make a good investment, his reply was simple. Shop around for a good rate on a ISA as it is tax free and also look for high yied corporate bonds. Very bearish.

The bull run on the stock market and housing market is over. Now is a period of years where we will see volitility in both markets.

House prices around most of country are also slipping.

My point is, I dont think we see a crash, more of a long slippery decline back to 2001 levels in the hosuing market, however this will happen over 5 years and not 5 weeks.

Listen to the programme and judge the mood for yourself. Link below.

Source :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod....o4/moneyboxlive

I think you're right but I don't think we'll see an actual decline in house prices - instead I think we'll have 5 years of stagnation which along with rising inflation will indeed mean a relative decline.

But for those hoping for house prices to suddenly 'halve' or whatever - don't think it's going to happen like that! - certainly not in VERY many areas of this country!

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I think you're right but I don't think we'll see an actual decline in house prices - instead I think we'll have 5 years of stagnation which along with rising inflation will indeed mean a relative decline.

But for those hoping for house prices to suddenly 'halve' or whatever - don't think it's going to happen like that! - certainly not in VERY many areas of this country!

I agree with your conclusion.

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My point is, I dont think we see a crash, more of a long slippery decline back to 2001 levels in the hosuing market, however this will happen over 5 years and not 5 weeks.

A lot of us have always accepted that a "crash" IS a drawn-out affair that extends over 5 years, not 5 weeks.

I agree entirely: when I have spoken about a "crash", I have meant a timescale of years. That's why I don't know if I have the patience to play out my STR strategy.

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I think you're right but I don't think we'll see an actual decline in house prices - instead I think we'll have 5 years of stagnation which along with rising inflation will indeed mean a relative decline.

But for those hoping for house prices to suddenly 'halve' or whatever - don't think it's going to happen like that! - certainly not in VERY many areas of this country!

We'll see...if lenders end up going back to traditional lending standards (which I fully expect them to) then there's every reason to believe prices will slump. Once the downward slope starts it's very hard for it to stop as the banks become ever more cautious until they go too far and thngs finally bottom out.

It's either that or they hyper-inflate out of this mess...stagnation isn't an option with a credit contraction. As many a poster has said on here, nobody's managed to find an example of any type of bubble that has deflated in a controlled manner.

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In the last five years the FTSE 100 has doubled to 6315 points today. However, the party is officially over.

Driving this afternoon on the way to get my car MOT'ed, I tuned into BBC Radio 4 to here the first episode of the new series of moneybox live. In the past they have always been farily bullish about investing in property and putting cash in to the stock market.

This new series the "expert" Alan Warner was bearish. When a caller was asking would putting money into shares in the stock market, he indicated that the bull run we have seen in the past 5 years will not repeat over the next 5 years.

He said this throughout the programme at least twice and possible even as many as four times.

He also indicated that property has become "Less atractive" as a investment lately and would remain so for some time to come.

When asked what would make a good investment, his reply was simple. Shop around for a good rate on a ISA as it is tax free and also look for high yied corporate bonds. Very bearish.

The bull run on the stock market and housing market is over. Now is a period of years where we will see volitility in both markets.

House prices around most of country are also slipping.

My point is, I dont think we see a crash, more of a long slippery decline back to 2001 levels in the hosuing market, however this will happen over 5 years and not 5 weeks.

Listen to the programme and judge the mood for yourself. Link below.

Source :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod....o4/moneyboxlive

If you look at the P/E levels for the FTSE100 prices are by historical levels extremly cheap. I don't think the stockmarket has had its day yet, not unless there is a US recession on the way to lower earnings.

Edited by ringledman

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I agree with your conclusion.

I don't - sorry.

This monster will dissolve like the Wicked Witch of the West once lending dries up. Which is starting...

I say 6 months to serious falls.

I'm in the Midlands and I've just made 2.4% of any house by not buying just a few weeks ago.

That's crash speed.

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Nice Freudian slip at the start of that program where he almost says something like "stockmarket volatility caused by fears over UK subprime mortgage debt" but manages to change to US just in time :lol:

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In the last five years the FTSE 100 has doubled to 6315 points today. .....

The bull run on the stock market and housing market is over. Now is a period of years where we will see volitility in both markets.

House prices around most of country are also slipping.

The FTSE has actually seen virtually no increase on its peak about the turn of the millennium at the end of the dot com boom..

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE...&q=l&c=

The 'doubling' in value the last five years was actually just the recovery from the decline that took place after 9/11. The FTSE has not seen in a proper 'bull market' in stocks for a long, long time.

Edited by up2nogood

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Nice Freudian slip at the start of that program where he almost says something like "stockmarket volatility caused by fears over UK subprime mortgage debt" but manages to change to US just in time :lol:

I noticed that too.

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Guest d23
I don't - sorry.

This monster will dissolve like the Wicked Witch of the West once lending dries up. Which is starting...

I say 6 months to serious falls.

I'm in the Midlands and I've just made 2.4% of any house by not buying just a few weeks ago.

That's crash speed.

how do you figure that?

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In the last five years the FTSE 100 has doubled to 6315 points today. However, the party is officially over.

Driving this afternoon on the way to get my car MOT'ed, I tuned into BBC Radio 4 to here the first episode of the new series of moneybox live. In the past they have always been farily bullish about investing in property and putting cash in to the stock market.

This new series the "expert" Alan Warner was bearish. When a caller was asking would putting money into shares in the stock market, he indicated that the bull run we have seen in the past 5 years will not repeat over the next 5 years.

He said this throughout the programme at least twice and possible even as many as four times.

He also indicated that property has become "Less atractive" as a investment lately and would remain so for some time to come.

When asked what would make a good investment, his reply was simple. Shop around for a good rate on a ISA as it is tax free and also look for high yied corporate bonds. Very bearish.

The bull run on the stock market and housing market is over. Now is a period of years where we will see volitility in both markets.

House prices around most of country are also slipping.

My point is, I dont think we see a crash, more of a long slippery decline back to 2001 levels in the hosuing market, however this will happen over 5 years and not 5 weeks.

Listen to the programme and judge the mood for yourself. Link below.

Source :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod....o4/moneyboxlive

not quite.

we know the CB's are trying to inflate their way out of trouble.....at 13% p.a plus.

a quick bit of TA here for the FTSE..subtract 3200(THE bottom) from 6700(THE top)...gives about 3500

multiply this figure by 0.618.(nice fibonacci number)...gives 1300 or thereabouts.

now subtract that from 6700.

means we should see 5400 by the time the retracement plays out.

IT AIN'T OVER YET!!!!

dow 11000 looks feasible....and I think this will play out quite quickly....Fed easing or not,expect a shock by october.

Edited by oracle

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not quite.

we know the CB's are trying to inflate their way out of trouble.....at 13% p.a plus.

a quick bit of TA here for the FTSE..subtract 3200(THE bottom) from 6700(THE top)...gives about 3500

multiply this figure by 0.618.(nice fibonacci number)...gives 1300 or thereabouts.

now subtract that from 6700.

means we should see 5400 by the time the retracement plays out.

IT AIN'T OVER YET!!!!

dow 11000 looks feasible....and I think this will play out quite quickly....Fed easing or not,expect a shock by october.

Please do not quote M3 as inflation.

It may be inflationary but with asian central banks buying sterling as a reserve much of this money has a monetary velocity of 1 during its first year and 0 for every following year, ergo... that money is not inflationary.

Money also disappears into the ever growing drugs trade.

As the monetary velocity of our currency is falling M3 at 13% does not imply 13% inflation.

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My point is, I dont think we see a crash, more of a long slippery decline back to 2001 levels in the hosuing market, however this will happen over 5 years and not 5 weeks.

Listen to the programme and judge the mood for yourself. Link below.

Source :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod....o4/moneyboxlive

A 50% decrease would bring us to 2001 prices. I hope so, but i just cant see that happening.

Edited by sortofsilver

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Please do not quote M3 as inflation.

It may be inflationary but with asian central banks buying sterling as a reserve much of this money has a monetary velocity of 1 during its first year and 0 for every following year, ergo... that money is not inflationary.

Money also disappears into the ever growing drugs trade.

As the monetary velocity of our currency is falling M3 at 13% does not imply 13% inflation.

M3 is "stored" inflation,that's the problem.

it doesn't manifest itself straight away.

I base most of my investments as a return on M3...if I get less I am losing.

...but 13% inflation is probably not too far off the mark if you calculate the food,goods and services people use regularly.

2% CPI is plain fraud.

depending on which demographic you are,true inflation is currently between 6 and 9 percent..this will get shedloads worse when the chinese are actually allowed to buy stuff,when their CB stops manipulating the currency.

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I think you're right but I don't think we'll see an actual decline in house prices - instead I think we'll have 5 years of stagnation which along with rising inflation will indeed mean a relative decline.

But for those hoping for house prices to suddenly 'halve' or whatever - don't think it's going to happen like that! - certainly not in VERY many areas of this country!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :lol: My god. Have you learned nothing? Evidently!

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I think you're right but I don't think we'll see an actual decline in house prices - instead I think we'll have 5 years of stagnation which along with rising inflation will indeed mean a relative decline.

But for those hoping for house prices to suddenly 'halve' or whatever - don't think it's going to happen like that! - certainly not in VERY many areas of this country!

Goodness me I'm fed up of reading the inflation mantra.... it's going to clear all my debts.

Bolleaux!!! inflation without matching wage rises will leave you poorer, can you not see that?

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Please do not quote M3 as inflation.

It may be inflationary but with asian central banks buying sterling as a reserve much of this money has a monetary velocity of 1 during its first year and 0 for every following year, ergo... that money is not inflationary.

Money also disappears into the ever growing drugs trade.

As the monetary velocity of our currency is falling M3 at 13% does not imply 13% inflation.

The Austrian School of Economics clearly states it inflation IS measured through an increase in the money supply.

Austrian economics is a valid and adopted method of understanding economics and economies, the garbage you spouted is your sole view which is open to ridicule and does not warrant debate.

In fact your point is basically pointless as you contradicted yourself in your first 2 sentences (bold).

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The Austrian School of Economics clearly states it inflation IS measured through an increase in the money supply.

Austrian economics is a valid and adopted method of understanding economics and economies, the garbage you spouted is your sole view which is open to ridicule and does not warrant debate.

In fact your point is basically pointless as you contradicted yourself in your first 2 sentences (bold).

I think you have confused monetary inflation with price inflation.

Whilst also ignoring monetary velocity.

If velocity is falling it is possible to increase the supply of money and still have falling prices...

Since in the modern world of wired money, monetary velocity can be prone to huge and sudden swings and volatility, the old "austrian" approach is largely irrelevnt to modern day risk management.

You are applying Newtonian Laws to Einsteinian numbers.

Obviously the world is still flat and this is not open to debate. So you are free to ridicule "the garbage I spout".

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