It Ain't Just Houses.....

[nerble]

If I had the time, was being paid, and had the skills, I love to do a comparison of the 80’s supercar boom in relation to the wider economy. My theory is that you can measure economic cycles through supercar companies, and according to this fledgling theory, we must be near the peak.

I've just had a quick look at the fortunes of Aston Martin, and when ownership of the company changed. It is an interesting case, because the company has made a profit in only around 5 years of its history, it is therefore a marginal business and its attractiveness depends very sharply on the numbers of super-rich out there.

Founded 1914

1928 - sold to the Bertelli brothers, just before the 1929 stock market crash & start of the depression

1947 - sold to David Brown, start of the post-war consensus (the economy back then was dominated by post-war effects)

1972 - sold to William Willson - start of the 1970s bear market run

1980 - sold to Victor Gantlett (+ consortium) early 1980s recession

1987 - Ford took a major shareholding (leading to ownership) - housing crash in UK

2007 - sold to David Richards (+ consortium) - followed by......

So, major changes in AM ownership do coincide quite well with major economic changes. (BTW, I do hope that they continue to make cars for ever - the AMV8 is just lovely - even if it does look a bit like a Ford Puma from the back.)

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

I've just had a quick look at the fortunes of Aston Martin, and when ownership of the company changed. It is an interesting case, because the company has made a profit in only around 5 years of its history, it is therefore a marginal business and its attractiveness depends very sharply on the numbers of super-rich out there.

Founded 1914

1928 - sold to the Bertelli brothers, just before the 1929 stock market crash & start of the depression

1947 - sold to David Brown, start of the post-war consensus (the economy back then was dominated by post-war effects)

1972 - sold to William Willson - start of the 1970s bear market run

1980 - sold to Victor Gantlett (+ consortium) early 1980s recession

1987 - Ford took a major shareholding (leading to ownership) - housing crash in UK

2007 - sold to David Richards (+ consortium) - followed by......

So, major changes in AM ownership do coincide quite well with major economic changes. (BTW, I do hope that they continue to make cars for ever - the AMV8 is just lovely - even if it does look a bit like a Ford Puma from the back.)

I find things like this quite inetresting, cheers.

My son & I have a healthy interest in cars & I have noticed insane prices for some of the more mundane collectors cars in the last 2 years.

There have been a few posts on here discussing the connection between niche car prices & hpc's. I also believe that there is a link with expensive toys & hpc's.

[nerble]

My son & I have a healthy interest in cars & I have noticed insane prices for some of the more mundane collectors cars in the last 2 years.

I tried searching the forum for previous threads on this topic, but doesn't seem to be working at the moment. Can you remember the Jaguar XJ220? Many investors paid deposits for them in the knowledge that they could sell on for a massive profit. When prices tanked, a number of the investors tried to sue Jaguar - claiming that they were mislead (they lost of course). Heady days. Given that there is a five year waiting list for a new Rolls Royce right now, I bet there are plenty of people on the list who have paid their deposits and intend to sell their place to the highest bidder.

Was there a thread a few days ago about the shortage of crews for the thousands of mega-yachts that are being sold.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

I tried searching the forum for previous threads on this topic, but doesn't seem to be working at the moment. Can you remember the Jaguar XJ220? Many investors paid deposits for them in the knowledge that they could sell on for a massive profit. When prices tanked, a number of the investors tried to sue Jaguar - claiming that they were mislead (they lost of course). Heady days. Given that there is a five year waiting list for a new Rolls Royce right now, I bet there are plenty of people on the list who have paid their deposits and intend to sell their place to the highest bidder.

Was there a thread a few days ago about the shortage of crews for the thousands of mega-yachts that are being sold.

I do indeed.

here's one

[gravity always wins]

It's very interesting when "collectables", such as these are priced out of the range of "collectors".

And yes I DO remember when "old cars" were bought as "investments", back in the 80's.

Hopefully these are now back in the hands of the enthusiasts!

Funny what people will pay for an old watch sometimes...

I remember those days well invested in a couple of old classics and made a nice bit of money it was all the 80's city boys who wanted to buy the old Bond Aston Martins and the great cars from films like Bullit, Italian job and The Avengers.

The prices went ballistic near the end and everyone was talking about these cars - and that was precisely when I left the market (shortly after it collapsed - not because i left obviously)

I am 41 and have now seen (noticed) enough boom and busts that I can't understand why people get so blinded and never believe prices will fall from wines to cars property stocks and commodities time and time again. When the price of anything starts increasing by 30% it sends a shiver down my spine.

I do wonder about the general intelligence of the vast majority of "investors".

[LittleBro]

I have read somewhere that in the late 80s boom rare supercars saw sharp price increases before crashing with the economy as a whole quite abruptly. Sounds similar.

I've often considered the market for rare supercars to be a pre-cursor to the events of the houseing markets. IIRC the bottom fell out of exotica just months before the housing market.

However, this time around, the financing of such toys has kept things buoyant....my prediction is that shorty this market will tank. Fingers crossed.....

[Gurgle]

I find things like this quite inetresting, cheers.

My son & I have a healthy interest in cars & I have noticed insane prices for some of the more mundane collectors cars in the last 2 years.

There have been a few posts on here discussing the connection between niche car prices & hpc's. I also believe that there is a link with expensive toys & hpc's.

I don't know about niche car prices, but its well known within the automotive retail industry that dealers profits are closely linked to house prices as when things are looking rosy, people tend to MEW to buy a shiny new car.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

I don't know about niche car prices, but its well known within the automotive retail industry that dealers profits are closely linked to house prices as when things are looking rosy, people tend to MEW to buy a shiny new car.

new car sales are down in the UK arn't they ? they definetly are in the US.

My wife has a mini & we went for a look around at the new shape. We had no intention of buying, the salesman took our details & telephoned us 3 times over a period of 1 month.

We had done exactly the same 2 years previous when we bought her current mini & we never recieved any phonecalls & that was even after we had test driven one.

That tells me that sales were easy then, now they are not.

[Objective Developer]

I've just had a quick look at the fortunes of Aston Martin, and when ownership of the company changed. It is an interesting case, because the company has made a profit in only around 5 years of its history, it is therefore a marginal business and its attractiveness depends very sharply on the numbers of super-rich out there.

Founded 1914

1928 - sold to the Bertelli brothers, just before the 1929 stock market crash & start of the depression

1947 - sold to David Brown, start of the post-war consensus (the economy back then was dominated by post-war effects)

1972 - sold to William Willson - start of the 1970s bear market run

1980 - sold to Victor Gantlett (+ consortium) early 1980s recession

1987 - Ford took a major shareholding (leading to ownership) - housing crash in UK

2007 - sold to David Richards (+ consortium) - followed by......

So, major changes in AM ownership do coincide quite well with major economic changes. (BTW, I do hope that they continue to make cars for ever - the AMV8 is just lovely - even if it does look a bit like a Ford Puma from the back.)

Excellent work. Can we call it the Aston Martin effect?

(notice the 'we'...)

[canny man]

Fine Wine took a bath last HPC. I remember buying a good selection of late 80's First Growths - Lafite, Rothschild, Haut Brion, for 20-30 a bottle from distressed parcels. I still have some and expect to be adding to my cellarin the coming years.

[PatientObserver]

I have noticed quite a few ads around recently for buying collectable stamps. Stanley Gibbons is promoting them as inflation hedges, returns of about 12% pa, supposedly protected from asset crashes by their 'collectability' factor. I think they lost about 75% value in the last crash - early 80's. Can't remember much detail as I was quite young then.

[Solvent Celt]

I expect that when mortgage resets begin to bite and people are looking for assets to sell to make their mortgage payments the 2nd hand car market will have a lot of surplus stock!

Edited August 30, 2007 by Solvent Celt

[@contradevian]

I expect that when mortgage resets begin toy bite and people are looking for assets to sell to make their mortgage payments the 2nd hand car market will have a lot of surplus stock!

yes "second hand Ferrari, only one (investment banker) owner"

[Mikesev]

I have all but given up on ever trying to go to a large gig ever again because every man and his dog has become a ticket tout / flipper.

£100k for a watch? I swear by my 6 year old Pulsar that I bought for myself on my 21st, for £40

A tip if I may from someone who has experience: Go on to eBay about 2-3 days before the gig you want and chances are you can buy tickets at bargain basement prices. You might have to pay for express postage, but the fiver that costs you'll save on the tickets.

The reason being that sellers of tickets have only one differentiator, price. As the event date draws near it usually ends up a bloodbath for those sellers who thought they'd hang on.

Edited August 30, 2007 by Mikesev

[Jason]

Funnily enough, ZX80s are worth quite a lot, about £200 in used condition, more if boxed or in very good unboxed condition. Chuck it on Ebay old chap!

Cool. I still have the printer too... it's like a bog roll printer

Might keep it another decade, as I really can't be arsed to find it. Oh, and it's an *investment* now thanks to your comment, and it's *worth* at least £300 (gone up £100 during the writing of this post due to human greed).

Maybe we could buy the old HPC servers? It will be a collectors item in the years to come!

..~~... "I posted on that" (pointing to a dusty pc in the corner) ..~~...

Edit: £350.

Edited August 30, 2007 by Jason

[Benedict]

All perceived exclusive items go through the roof. Art is currently going through the roof so "was" champagne, Flashbacks to the late 1980s with E-types going for silly money. Its happening all over again akin to the 'food/gold sprinkling" madness in Japan.

Article in the insurance times this week talking about art prices . . . suggesting that some prices are already crashing and others likely to crash significantly in the near future, which could well lead to a rash of fraudulent claims as people's art is worth more to them as an insurance claims than the market value.

I'll have a chat to our specie underwriter at some point and get the lowdown, he'll know what's going on in all kinds of ridiculously overpriced collectible markets.

[nerble]

Excellent work. Can we call it the Aston Martin effect?

(notice the 'we'...)

Yes, we can if you like. Although it is more of a sign of the times than a cause, so call it the Aston Martin indicator.

Edited August 30, 2007 by nerble

[Garry AKA Pod]

A tip if I may from someone who has experience: Go on to eBay about 2-3 days before the gig you want and chances are you can buy tickets at bargain basement prices. You might have to pay for express postage, but the fiver that costs you'll save on the tickets.

The reason being that sellers of tickets have only one differentiator, price. As the event date draws near it usually ends up a bloodbath for those sellers who thought they'd hang on.

But I would be showing support for ebay touts then.

As for collectors. I can understand people buying classic cars as you can drive them. I can understand (to a point) buying expensive watches as you can wear them and see what time it is. However, what is the point in collecting wine? If you plan on drinking it, then fair enough, but I fail to see value in alcoholic grape juice. Could a wine connoisseur possibly explain the appeal please?

[vlad the impaler]

But I would be showing support for ebay touts then.

As for collectors. I can understand people buying classic cars as you can drive them. I can understand (to a point) buying expensive watches as you can wear them and see what time it is. However, what is the point in collecting wine? If you plan on drinking it, then fair enough, but I fail to see value in alcoholic grape juice. Could a wine connoisseur possibly explain the appeal please?

Why do people collect computer CPUs? It is a little hobby of mine, or was until two years ago. I started out in 1999, and built my collection up paying £5 here and £10 there on Ebay, buying rare prototypes, and things I thought were interesting (yeah I know, sad case!). 8 years later, there are now approx 30 websites devoted to people collecting vintage CPUs, and more collectors than you can shake a stick at. I watched a market develop, right from the start. Initially, there were just a few collectors like me, who did it for the fun of it. Next you got more collectors, and more interest. Next you got flippers and dealers; no more swapping spares with friends from this point. Now, we have endgame. Moderately rare stuff being bid through the roof on Ebay, and best of all, fakes being fabricated and sold into the newly emerged 'market'. A few friends with a shared hobby overtaken and destroyed by greed and avarice. I don't bother collecting CPUs anymore.

[@contradevian]

Why do people collect computer CPUs? It is a little hobby of mine, or was until two years ago. I started out in 1999, and built my collection up paying £5 here and £10 there on Ebay, buying rare prototypes, and things I thought were interesting (yeah I know, sad case!). 8 years later, there are now approx 30 websites devoted to people collecting vintage CPUs, and more collectors than you can shake a stick at. I watched a market develop, right from the start. Initially, there were just a few collectors like me, who did it for the fun of it. Next you got more collectors, and more interest. Next you got flippers and dealers; no more swapping spares with friends from this point. Now, we have endgame. Moderately rare stuff being bid through the roof on Ebay, and best of all, fakes being fabricated and sold into the newly emerged 'market'. A few friends with a shared hobby overtaken and destroyed by greed and avarice. I don't bother collecting CPUs anymore.

The things you learn on HPC. I wasn't even aware there was a market in old CPU's. As someone said earlier at least with a watch you tell the time, or you can drive a classic car, but an old CPU?

I've got a couple of Pentium IV's in a cardboard box.

[vlad the impaler]

The things you learn on HPC. I wasn't even aware there was a market in old CPU's. As someone said earlier at least with a watch you tell the time, or you can drive a classic car, but an old CPU?

I've got a couple of Pentium IV's in a cardboard box.

Have a read

I just started collecting because it was fun. I am a terrible hoarder, so I guess it is in my nature!

[vlad the impaler]

From the forum linked to above. A typical newbie post.

Does anyone know how I might be able to find the value of some of my chips?

It's apparent that a C8008 is a nicer catch than an 8088. But why (no need to answer)?

Any help would be great.

WHo cares what they are worth? Is it not enough to just have them???

[stonethecrows]

Ebay is full of weird and wonderful stuff that I cant personally see the appeal but hey someone must want this cr@p. Catflap who knows why someone would want to pay that-is it what they're bid up to or just what someone is TRYING to get ppl to bid. The oddest thing I think Ive ever seen listed on there was a fossilized turtle shit though I have no idea what it went for in the end.

[Guest Skint Academic]

Why do people collect computer CPUs? It is a little hobby of mine, or was until two years ago. I started out in 1999, and built my collection up paying £5 here and £10 there on Ebay, buying rare prototypes, and things I thought were interesting (yeah I know, sad case!). 8 years later, there are now approx 30 websites devoted to people collecting vintage CPUs, and more collectors than you can shake a stick at. I watched a market develop, right from the start. Initially, there were just a few collectors like me, who did it for the fun of it. Next you got more collectors, and more interest. Next you got flippers and dealers; no more swapping spares with friends from this point. Now, we have endgame. Moderately rare stuff being bid through the roof on Ebay, and best of all, fakes being fabricated and sold into the newly emerged 'market'. A few friends with a shared hobby overtaken and destroyed by greed and avarice. I don't bother collecting CPUs anymore.

It's a shame to hear about your hobby being destroyed, but then at least if you're getting out of it you probably made a few quid on your stash. I can't believe the irony of it all though. My dad hoardes absolutely everything he can and we have to be really strict with him. And I know for a fact that he has an old 8086 PC and my original Amstrad 286. He kept them in working condition along with original monitor and keyboard etc until the limited space made my mum badger him to at least store it on top of the cupboard. So if it now turns out that this is worth some money then it's a two-edged sword. Yes my parents could sell them, but then he would never throw anything out again! But on the other hand, if we could sell them, we might actually be able to convince him to get rid of them after all these years.

[vlad the impaler]

It's a shame to hear about your hobby being destroyed, but then at least if you're getting out of it you probably made a few quid on your stash.

No. I have not sold any of them at all. I have no doubt that I could make a killing, but that would make me as bad as the people I am moaning about. I am just not buying.

I am a bit like that. I would rather lose money, or indeed pay more if it means sticking with what I know is right. I consider practicing what you preach to be the divider between those who are truly principled, and those who are self serving, but just happen to share common irrititations about life in general. A good example of this would be someone who moans about HPI, and then STRs at the top of the market thus making a lot of money for themselves and contributing even further to HPI.

Edited September 1, 2007 by vlad the impaler