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ianbeale

Land Reg Figs For July (29/8)

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this is a real negative figure when you strip out the home improvements factor that generally adds value to each property sold using land reg methodology - sub RPI anyway

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this is a real negative figure when you strip out the home improvements factor that generally adds value to each property sold using land reg methodology - sub RPI anyway

Nah, it's apples to apples remember!

The HPI is produced using the Repeat Sales Regression (RSR)

method. Under the RSR method, house price growth is measured

by observing houses which have been sold more than once. By

using repeat transactions, differences in the quality of homes

comprised in any monthly sample are greatly reduced – thereby

ensuring an ‘apples to apples’ comparison. The HPI uses Land

Registry's own price paid dataset. This is a record of all

residential property transactions made in England and Wales

since April 2000. At present it contains details on over eight

million sales. Of these, approximately 1.9 million are identifiable

matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression

analysis used to compile the index.

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What I'd like to know is - these are Julys Land registry figures so these relate to sales in what month? ie whats the lag time. What months sales are we really looking at?

These figures relate to May completions.

Sales volume down 9% from last year.

West Midlands and Wales look in trouble.

Newham continues it's fall. I predicted 0-2% HPI by christmas, which is still well on track.

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Very encouraging. Shame it couldn't just make it down to -0.1% and then I'd be smiling.

Why exactly is this encouraging? There's not much point in reading much into monthly changes as they wobble a lot for no real reason.

The headline annual figures are still showing significant HPI (no local authority experienced a fall...) - way above RPI.

:unsure:

Or is there something I am missing?

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july av price 181460

june av price 181039

increase 421

true MoM = (421/181039)*100

true MOM = 0.23%

how this rounds up to 0.1 I dont know - should be 0.0% - e mail sent to land reg asking for explanation

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Not much comfort for bears who don't live in the West Midlands, Wales or the North East.

London and the South-East still showing double digit growth, with prime London areas still over 20%.

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july av price 181460

june av price 181039

increase 421

true MoM = (421/181039)*100

true MOM = 0.23%

how this rounds up to 0.1 I dont know - should be 0.0% - e mail sent to land reg asking for explanation

rewind - should be MoM+0.2 oops - silly me

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Why exactly is this encouraging?

I didn't say it was time to break out the champagne:

I accept that MoM figures wobble but one has to start somewhere in ones interpretation.

And therefore, though inconclusive, I would consider a low MoM figure of +0.1% more encouraging than a high MoM figure of +1% and less encouraging than a negative MoM figure of -1%

To say otherwise is to say that MoM figures are irrelevant to the question of whether house prices are "booming" or "crashing". Is that really your position?

Edited by Selling up

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These figures relate to May completions.

Sales volume down 9% from last year.

West Midlands and Wales look in trouble.

Newham continues it's fall. I predicted 0-2% HPI by christmas, which is still well on track.

No these figures relate to completions notified to LR in July

Apparently 70% are notified within 1 month of completion, 90% within 2 months 95% within 3 months and after that it is statistically irrelevant.

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Nah, it's apples to apples remember!

i dont buy this

buy a rundown property cheap - do a 20 k make over and sell it on - that is 20 k real added value that was not reflected in the original prurchase price

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No these figures relate to completions notified to LR in July

Apparently 70% are notified within 1 month of completion, 90% within 2 months 95% within 3 months and after that it is statistically irrelevant.

yup

from the report:

House prices in England and

Wales exhibit slow monthly

growth for residential property

transactions that completed in

July 2007.

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No these figures relate to completions notified to LR in July

Apparently 70% are notified within 1 month of completion, 90% within 2 months 95% within 3 months and after that it is statistically irrelevant.

However these completions relate to a sale approx 4 - 8 weeks prior. At best it takes 4 weeks from offer accepted to completion. Therefore these figures relate to purchasers having offers accepted in May/June this year. Therefore these figures reflect the state of the market around that time and I would expect they are more reflective of the market in May.

Edited by housesforcourses

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I didn't say it was time to break out the champagne:

I accept that MoM figures wobble but one has to start somewhere in ones interpretation.

And therefore, though inconclusive, I would consider a MoM figure of +0.1% more encouraging than a MoM figure of +1% and less encouraging than a MoM figure of -1%

To say otherwise is to say that MoM figures are irrelevant to the question of whether house prices are "booming" or "crashing". Is that really your position?

No I didn't say that they are irrelevant to whether prices are "booming" or "crashing". What I meant was that a) MoM figures always need to be looked at in conjunction with the longer-term picture, over 6-12 months at least and B) Neither the MoM nor longer-term figures give any reason for thinking that one should be "encouraged" in one's expectation of an imminent HPC.

And to say that + 0.1% is "encouraging" because it is not +1% seems a bit funny. The annual figure has gone down from +20% to "only" +8% - is that "encouraging" too? ;)

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i dont buy this

buy a rundown property cheap - do a 20 k make over and sell it on - that is 20 k real added value that was not reflected in the original prurchase price

You've got a point, but not one the Land Registry want to think about!

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No these figures relate to completions notified to LR in July

Apparently 70% are notified within 1 month of completion, 90% within 2 months 95% within 3 months and after that it is statistically irrelevant.

exactly "from completion" is the key - it takes 2/3 months from someone walking through the door with the EA to actually getting the keys in their hands

add yor figures on to this date and you are looking at properties that were "sale agreed" stc in april/may (4 month lag)

nationwide should provide a better up to date indication (2 month lag) out tommorrow at 0700

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=54329

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Surely that volume data is MASSIVELY significant.

The properties sold at the lower end (i.e. 200k or less) ALL show a massive decrease in volume, even in London.

What does this mean?

Easy: prices are rising on the back of relatively small volumes of high value property.

The rest of the market is about to go into free-fall.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I think these are figures we were expecting.

It will take time, just like in the states.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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Neither the MoM nor longer-term figures give any reason for thinking that one should be "encouraged" in one's expectation of an imminent HPC.

And to say that + 0.1% is "encouraging" because it is not +1% seems a bit funny. The annual figure has gone down from +20% to "only" +8% - is that "encouraging" too? ;)

I don't really disagree with you. I think you over-estimate my bearishness.

Of course one needs to look at the whole picture and I would agree there's nothing there to make me shout "HPC imminent".

But I would like to see falling prices. Failing that I would like to see flat prices. So it IS "encouraging" that annual figure has gone from +20 to +8.

It's a step closer to where I want to be (large nominal falls). But I'm not claiming we're there. I specifically pointed out in my post in the first place that "I'm not smiling yet".

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Surely that volume data is MASSIVELY significant.

The properties sold at the lower end (i.e. 200k or less) ALL show a massive decrease in volume, even in London.

What does this mean?

Easy: prices are rising on the back of relatively small volumes of high value property.

The rest of the market is about to go into free-fall.

maybe there arnt any properties left in this price bracket because theyve gone up so much?

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The importance of this report is that it shows upward momentum breaking. In a market where everyone is buying because of anticipated capital gains, it's all based on momentum. Once that capital gain is taken out of the buying equation, prices will make even less sense than they do now and prices will fall. Given the difference in cost between renting and buying, it only makes sense to buy if you think house prices will go up by 10% a year for the next 10 years. Otherwise, you get so much more by renting, that it makes no sense to buy. I rent a house now where my monthly rent payment covers 1/6th (1/6th!) of the interest payment on the mortgage it would take to buy the place. That's totally insane (though not that I'm complaining).

Note also that volumes have headed down significantly over the past couple months.

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