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Borat's Bear

Criteria To Set Official Hpc Start Date

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Hi,

I was wondering if there is a consensus as to what criteria should be met before the offical HPC start can be announced?

If not maybe we should discuss...

I watched Borat only yesterday! Still pi$$ing myself laughing today :D

I believe people have already bagged 09/08/07 for the official start.. can't remember why exactly, though. Ask Goldfinger, he knows.

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Call me contrary, but I would say around 2 years ago in most of the country. (I always ignore London, I just can't help myself). Rises in the last 2 years have been the last convulsive throws of the frenzied speculative bulls and the ignorant. So as far as I'm concerned, we're already in it and have been for some considerable time.

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Guest d23
Hi,

I was wondering if there is a consensus as to what criteria should be met before the offical HPC start can be announced?

If not maybe we should discuss...

I agree, this is a very pertinent point

If someone considers that when HPI dislocated from the fundementals that made a correction inevitable then you could say the crash started in 2002 or 2003 ish

If someone else considers a crash to be 2 consecutive negative qtrs then we're a while away from that too

If your RB then we've been crashing for at least a couple of years because crashes start imperceptibly etc etc blah blah blah

For me when theres continued HPI over several months it's hard to call a crash, even if the rate of growth is slowing. I wouldn't advise anyone buying right now but I also wouldn't say we're in the midst of a crash just yet.

When we have a few consecutive months of falls or no growth across a couple of Indices then I would feel more like we are at the beginning of a crash and when we see YoY then I would say it was in full flow

Call me crazy but slowed growth and a couple of small irregular regional drops just doesn't feel that 'crashy' to me; they could well be portents of a coming crash but nothing that would have me cracking open a few bottles of veuve just yet. I've been burned before with this kind of false expectation before; it's been obvious for years that a correction is due and yet it still hasn't quite hit.

Whilst I feel a correction is of course inevitable and should start in 2008 I'm not going to start deluding myself that we have been in the middle of a country wide crash for many months.

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash

Could be when you get several consecutive months of -ve growth followed by a further IR increase

IR's at 8%+

EA's across the land not able to sell most of their properties (This would need an EA expert to set the criteria)

RB posting from a balanced article and not needing to highlight only the possible bearish points :D

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Guest d23
Call me contrary, but I would say around 2 years ago in most of the country. (I always ignore London, I just can't help myself). Rises in the last 2 years have been the last convulsive throws of the frenzied speculative bulls and the ignorant. So as far as I'm concerned, we're already in it and have been for some considerable time.

'unsexed up' LR figures for 2006 show hefty HPI for all regions (even ignoring london)

whether thats the last convulsive throws of frenzied bulls etc etc, it's still continued growth across most of the country (apart from the several people who are going to respond to this saying their area has stagnated for the last 5 years)

Try telling someone who's watched prices increase in their area by 10% / 12% in the last 2 years that they've been experiencing a crash and I'd think they'd tell you you were tripping.

Edited by d23

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I'd say 2 consecutive nationwide MoM falls in a reputable index.

"What's reputable"? Good question. LR, obviously.

Anyone care to volunteer which others are reliable? I'm not sure.

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I think first you have to define a crash.

Then you have to wait till that crash has happened.

Then you look back to see when the house price indices peaked.

Then add 1 day.

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I feel the first time a major index such as Hallifax or Nationwide goes negative year on year is a major milestone. No VIs can say prices are still growing once the YoY data goes red!

Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be there until 2008.

I've coined the phrase, "wait until 2008" This is the year when HPC goes mainstream.

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I feel the first time a major index such as Hallifax or Nationwide goes negative year on year is a major milestone. No VIs can say prices are still growing once the YoY data goes red!

Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be there until 2008.

I've coined the phrase, "wait until 2008" This is the year when HPC goes mainstream.

I reckon it should be when rate of change of HPI is below some threshold. now how you define HPI (Mom or Yoy) or rate of change (timing) and threshold is up for discussion . For example say jan, feb and march showed average YoY of 12% whereas average of Aug, Sep and Oct showed 2%. If the threshold is -10% then crash started in Feb as 12%-2%=10% etc.

Obviously woudl have to agree on data, threshold, nominal or real prices etc, but I think we should determine the inflection point of house prices as opposed to when they simply fall

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