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ianbeale

Nationwide Out Thursday 30th At 0700

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This one has been teetering on the edge - will we finally see some red on the board - falls have been reported by market watchers here for some months now - surely the lag has washed through by now!!!

my call 0.2 Negative

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This one has been teetering on the edge - will we finally see some red on the board - falls have been reported by market watchers here for some months now - surely the lag has washed through by now!!!

my call 0.2 Negative

If will be positive (even if by just a small amount) If it looks like being negative they will just adjust something in the criteria - something like remove any areas that show falls and average the rest. The whole system is corrupt they wont want to panic anyone so will produce more crap to keep it all going :(

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If you are a betting man you would have to say no. This question gets asked every month and the answer always turns out to be no. However, I'm waiting to be pleasantly surprised. People bang on here about how fast the crash will happen. Last time some people didn't even know about it after if had been dropping for a year. (Or so I've learned on here).

This time it is different. I'm sure the first time we get MOM falls nationwide, the press will repeat it every twenty minutes, it'll be a great story and RealistBears GC2 will be on!

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This one has been teetering on the edge - will we finally see some red on the board - falls have been reported by market watchers here for some months now - surely the lag has washed through by now!!!

my call 0.2 Negative

I'm much more interested in the monthly LR report due out the day before at 1100hrs as it drills down into much more detail.

I am expecting static growth with a majority of regions either static or negative.

There won't be any YoY falls yet - you will have to wait until September for the 1st of those (Powys, Monmouthshire)

However by November 2007 (against strong growth in Autumn 2006), I expect 20-30% of areas to be YoY negative. The first of the regions will go negative YoY on that month too (either Wales, West Midlands or East Midlands)

don't know if the above will prove to be correct, but we need something like that if we are going to see the sharp correction that this site and it's users crave.

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The VIs cannot afford to lose the psychological war at this stage. They will have to boost "asking prices" and fix the data accordingly. Any admission of negative MoM such as the LR Index is revealing will cause the sheeple to panic and the Sun to start printing panic headlines.*

My bet is that the VIs will keep things looking positive in the hope that the slowdown is just that, a slow down. However, I believe they know full well what is about to hit and they will try to stall it for as long as they can.

I voted fror a slight increase in MoM (despite the LR Index and Hometrack going the other way).

______________

* When they do it will mark the beginnning of the panic stage of GC2--a massive run to the EAs to get sold up.

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The thing I don't understand is how HPI can be 0, 0.1% etc. How can houseprices remain so similar from month to month given that a completely random selection of houses is sold? I would have thought there should be some months negative and some months positive depending on if mansions or studios are sold more in a given month.

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amazing the level of pessimism on this thread - surely (assuming these figs are not fudged) this indices must go red MoM if all the reports of falling prices on here are true

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If it isn't negative then the Nationwide pessimistic propaganda in the run up to this announcement is going to be found wanting.The only way they can achieve a drop to average earnings of 3.5% by Spring 2008(their forecast)is for a run of negative and static monthly growth until then to off-set the growth we have seen in the last few months.If it isn't negative then Nationwide ARE taking the p*ss.I agree with Ian Beale,it has to be negative.

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Just checked the Home Page and the cumulative growth April to July is 2.6%.A bit slower than I had anticipated.However,to now go 0.9% in the remaining eight months to March 2008,to hit their forecast,we have got to start having some bad results.

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The VIs cannot afford to lose the psychological war at this stage. They will have to boost "asking prices" and fix the data accordingly. Any admission of negative MoM such as the LR Index is revealing will cause the sheeple to panic and the Sun to start printing panic headlines.*

My bet is that the VIs will keep things looking positive in the hope that the slowdown is just that, a slow down. However, I believe they know full well what is about to hit and they will try to stall it for as long as they can.

I voted fror a slight increase in MoM (despite the LR Index and Hometrack going the other way).

______________

* When they do it will mark the beginnning of the panic stage of GC2--a massive run to the EAs to get sold up.

Just an anecdotal here RB, but a friend has been looking to buy in London in the past few months and has been told by EAs that to include flats 20-30k above their price range and then put in a lower offer.

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The Times tips Nationwide to show 0.5% up but down Y.O.Y to something like 9.3%. Not sure what their tips are worth they are often wrong !

Well in that case that will leave them with 0.4% to play with in the remaining seven months to March 2008 to hit that 3.5% annual rolling inflation forecast (for then).As I said before, the bad results have to come soon otherwise they are taking the p*ss with their forecasts.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Guest d23
Well in that case that will leave them with 0.4% to play with in the remaining seven months to March 2008 to hit that 3.5% annual rolling inflation forecast (for then).As I said before, the bad results have to come soon otherwise they are taking the p*ss with their forecasts.

their forecast for 2006 was 3% so seems like p*ss taking predictions is nothing new for them

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I guess we'll have to wait and see but my feeling is that we're not quite there yet and the data will still be positive.

I expect to see some red on the board by October.

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It won't be the first time that specific sectors of the market have been included / excluded at a whim. Then there are the seasonally adjusted fudge factors. No doubt there will be a bit of adjustment because of the recent flooding.

0.1% rise.

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Guest d23
1 hour 15 minutes to go. 6 negative--4 positive?

RB thursday 30th 07:00 is 21 hours away

presume you're thinking of the LR figures

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1 hour 15 minutes to go. 6 negative--4 positive?

RB this thread is for tommorrows nationwide which i believe are more widely reported in the sheeple media - having said that i am licking my lips at the land reg figs as they are the most reliable though i believe they have more lag than nationwide and will therefore be later to turn - fingers crossed though.

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RB this thread is for tommorrows nationwide which i believe are more widely reported in the sheeple media - having said that i am licking my lips at the land reg figs as they are the most reliable though i believe they have more lag than nationwide and will therefore be later to turn - fingers crossed though.

For some strange reason I thought today was Thursday! I am on holiday in Surrey at the mo so not keeping my eye on the calander. Hell, another day to wait--I wonder if anyone has a leaked report? :P

Edit: Yes, must be thinking LR figures. Too much excitement I am afraid. :lol:

Edited by Realistbear

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RB this thread is for tommorrows nationwide which i believe are more widely reported in the sheeple media - having said that i am licking my lips at the land reg figs as they are the most reliable though i believe they have more lag than nationwide and will therefore be later to turn - fingers crossed though.

I infer from your reply that the Land Registry figures are out today?

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