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ziknik

Boe To Hold Interest Rates In September (07)

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Hi all. This is my first proper post.

I like to use the bookies odds converted in to ‘% chance of occurrence’ to predict things. I see it as an opinion poll where you have to pay for your vote. If it later turns out that were right, you get your money back and a share of the money from all the people who were wrong.

It’s usually pretty accurate for things like interest rates and big brother evictions. The obvious difference being that the people who sit on the MPC aren’t allowed to bet on the interest rates market.

These are the likelihoods for September. I will keep this thread updated with any changes.

UK
No Change = 97%
+0.25 = 4%
-0.25 = 4%
Any other change = 1%

No Change looks pretty certain to me

US
-0.25 = 57%
No Change = 43%
-0.50 = 14%
Any other change = 5%

This market has a high book percent, -0.25 and No Change could easily switch in the coming weeks

Europe
No Change = 57%
+0.25 = 50%
Any other change = 12%

This market has a high book percent, +0.25 and No Change could easily switch in the coming weeks

Australia
No Change = 98%
+0.25 = 6%
Any other change = 7%

No Change looks pretty certain to me

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=2042...&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=2040...&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=2042...&origin=MRL

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=2008...&origin=MRL

Note: Betfair is an exchange and not a bookies

Book Percent = Over Round. See the link if you are wondering why there is more than a 100% total chance of the events occurring.

http://www.1x2betting.co.uk/overround.php

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Quite a big change in the ECB odds today

Europe

No Change = 70% (up 13%)

+0.25 = 42% (Down 8%)

Any other change = 12%

The book percentage is still high @ 123.7% so there's still plenty of scope for things to change.

All the others a fairly similar to yesterday

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Quite a big change in the ECB odds today

Europe

No Change = 70% (up 13%)

+0.25 = 42% (Down 8%)

Any other change = 12%

The book percentage is still high @ 123.7% so there's still plenty of scope for things to change.

All the others a fairly similar to yesterday

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/...o?mi=(marketId)

If you want to scrape betfair odds. Obviously replace the marketId with the relevent betfair marketid.

Edited by abaxas

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Guest vicmac64
Quite a big change in the ECB odds today

Europe

No Change = 70% (up 13%)

+0.25 = 42% (Down 8%)

Any other change = 12%

The book percentage is still high @ 123.7% so there's still plenty of scope for things to change.

All the others a fairly similar to yesterday

They will hold - if they reduce them they will cause a run on the markets - it will be seen as a Bank knowing something is badly wrong with the markets.

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