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Realistbear

"market Gloom As House Prices Stay Flat" Dick Donnell

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/27082007/140/marke...-stay-flat.html

Financial News

Monday August 27, 06:58 AM

Market Gloom As House Prices Stay Flat

House prices stalled during August as the market was hit by higher interest rates and more cautious consumers, new figures have shown. Property information group Hometrack said
it was the first time for 20 months that prices in England and Wales had failed to move ahead.
It said that while weaker conditions were always to be expected during the summer, the lack of movement in average house prices provided further evidence of a more deep rooted slowdown in the market as a result of increased affordability pressures and more cautious buyers.
Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, said: "The housing market faces a testing time over the rest of the year.

Good start to the week. 7 out of 10.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/27082007/140/marke...-stay-flat.html

Financial News

Monday August 27, 06:58 AM

Market Gloom As House Prices Stay Flat

House prices stalled during August as the market was hit by higher interest rates and more cautious consumers, new figures have shown. Property information group Hometrack said
it was the first time for 20 months that prices in England and Wales had failed to move ahead.
It said that while weaker conditions were always to be expected during the summer, the lack of movement in average house prices provided further evidence of a more deep rooted slowdown in the market as a result of increased affordability pressures and more cautious buyers.
Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, said: "The housing market faces a testing time over the rest of the year.

Good start to the week. 7 out of 10.

I don't understand, I have been watching the BBC all morning and it has not been mention, are you sure this is a credible source. The BBC would normally report on any of the 15 a month reports about price rises?

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A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

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A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

No but at least it is not a boom!!

You also need a lack a rising prices to pass through into the next phase which is almost certainly going to be a crash. :rolleyes:

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A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

The expectation of rising prices, coupled with easy credit, was what drove HPI. Now that both the easy credit and the expectation of price rises have been removed, will prices remain static at their current high level? I know what the smart money believes.

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Guest pioneer31
A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

Oh dear, somebody got out of the wrong side of bed this morning.

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Guest pioneer31
It said that while weaker conditions were always to be expected during the summer,

Always wise after the event huh? Surely the height of summer is prime time for the market?

Of course, rising IR's, rising bills and the onset of autumn will kick start the market I suppose? :rolleyes:

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A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

Crashes begin very slowly, almost imperceptibly. The first part of the cyle is HPI. Then the rate of HPI slows. It slows a little more and the first MoM negatives begin to show up. A few months after that and the first YoY negatives show up. By then the crash is already mature and its far too late to get out without heavy losses.

The key to investing is watching the trend. The trend is your best friend as it warns you what is to come.

Where is HPI today? According to the recent LR Index most recent report 5 regiopns out of 10 saw negative HPI. The LR Index lags by about 6 months. The slowing phase has now turned into negative data. We are quite late in the first stages of the cycle.

Thus

A lack of price increases is the beginning of a crash

A lack of price increases is the beginning of a crash..................

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Everyone knows that HPI is different in different regions in the UK.

IMO, Wales and the NorthWest are particularly vulnerable at the moment. Seaside towns like LLandudno are a sales disaster - nothing is moving - most of the town is now classed as being in a "floodplain" as well! However, there is still no HPC in Llandudno - just static prices.

HPC will only happen when people are forced to sell because they can no longer afford the mortgage and the lack of buyers drive the price adjustment.

At the moment, people are just taking their house off the market if they don't get their expected "price" - that ain't HPC.

The other thing is this. The really nice houses are almost always for sale at the top of a boom. The rubbish ones are for sale in a bust. If you see an unusual amount of nice houses for sale - it doesn't mean the market is crashing. It means the market is just past its "top".

IMO, there is a time lag with most surveys. If they are saying that prices are flat. This means that "real" selling prices are already dropping.

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I don't understand, I have been watching the BBC all morning and it has not been mention, are you sure this is a credible source. The BBC would normally report on any of the 15 a month reports about price rises?

Just been on the Today programme on R4. Nothing to worry about though according to the spokesborg

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Guest Bart of Darkness
A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

No but it's a necessary step to get from boom to crash.

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Guest vicmac64
A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

yeah keep taking the tablets

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yeah keep taking the tablets

Maybe, but he's still right though - we are NOT in HPC territory yet. There will be no HPC until people are forced to sell.

To me, HPC means a least a 30% drop in real prices.

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A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

You are Bruno P. I claim my five pounds.

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"Buyer confidence has been weakening on the back of increased affordability pressures over recent months but the turmoil in the global equity markets has added a new external dimension." said Mr Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.

Since when has the average UK house buyer been concerned about global equity markets. You can see it now.

Estate Agent : "So Mr Jones what do you think of the house".

MR Jones: "Well its just what we'll looking for but the Global upheaval in the Chinese equity market as a result of the unwinding of the carry trade has made me a bit nervous of committing at this moment in time".

Estate Agent : "Ya wot".

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Since when has the average UK house buyer been concerned about global equity markets. You can see it now.

Estate Agent : "So Mr Jones what do you think of the house".

MR Jones: "Well its just what we'll looking for but the Global upheaval in the Chinese equity market as a result of the unwinding of the carry trade has made me a bit nervous of committing at this moment in time".

Estate Agent : "Ya wot".

LOL :lol:

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The key to investing is watching the trend. The trend is your best friend as it warns you what is to come.

I agree trends are important.

The graph on this websites front page has a little red line thats still going up.

Trends are important.

Trends are important.

Trends are important.

Trends are important.

Trends are important.

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A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

A lack of price increases is NOT the same as a crash.

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The global fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis won't dent economic growth in Germany, according to Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, who said the country's financial sector can absorb the shock.

``We have no reason to believe that the consequences of the crisis that has been caused by the U.S. mortgage sector will spill over to Germany and the European Union,'' Steinbrueck told reporters in Berlin today.

6 days later.....

BERLIN: The German state of Saxony has decided to sell the Landesbank Sachsen (SachsenLB), which has been hard hit by the US sub-prime crisis, to the Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg (LBBW), a spokesman said Sunday.

He said the regional cabinet had held an urgent meeting to agree the sale of the troubled bank, which was given a 17.3-billion-euro (23.6-billion-US-dollar) bailout by Germany's savings bank in the wake of the crisis that threw world markets into turmoil.

A LACK of price increase is not the same as a crash, no, of course not, its just the BEGINNING :lol::lol::lol:

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