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Si1

Dr. Patrick Dixon 'leading Futurist" Is Very Bullish On Hpi

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It's hard to ignore someone as celebrated and esteemed in certain business circles - a futurist, a predictor of long term trends

strikes me as a very bright chap, but his bullish argument is "same old same old"

the other thing is he is seems very very self-confident, I inately distrust such over-self-confidence, even tho it often brings people considerable success - things like elements of identical wording between his personal utube webpage and the article on him in wikipedia, his dedication to religion, etc. Give me Krigman or Bootle any day, but there you have it, his views still deserve some airing here. He's not an economist, incidentally, but a medical doctor by training.

edit: accidental rude language!

Edited by Si1

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It's hard to ignore someone as celebrated and esteemed in certain business circles - a futurist, a predictor of long term trends

strikes me as a very bright chap, but his bullish argument is "same old same old"

the other thing is he is seems very very self-confident, I inately distrust such over-self-confidence, even tho it often brings people considerable success - things like elements of identical wording between his personal utube webpage and the article on him in wikipedia, his dedication to religion, etc. Give me Krigman or Bootle any day, but there you have it, his views still deserve some airing here. He's not an economist, incidentally, but a medical doctor by training.

edit: accidental rude language!

There will a lot of "demand" for the new Canon nanotechnology TV next Spring. But at 5k + there will not be many sales.

The problem with applying the two legs (supply and demand) of the three leg economic trading formula (supply, demand and price) is that affordability is sometimes ignored.

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he is being far too simplistic, doesn’t take into account that banks have the power of credit, 10 years ago it was hard to get a mortgage unless you where prime. now some banks offer mortgages to dogs :lol: .

he only mentions 2 things that are worthy the rest is him babbling on.

he says interest rates are half what they where in the 1990 crash, so people can borrow 2x more than their earnings now. so 3.5 was the norm then so apparently 7x should be ok now.

secondly that about 1million people emigrate here every 3 years, which is true and will affect rent and house prices!

suggests living costs are lower than they where 15-20 years ago which is ******** from my experience!

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Guest Bart of Darkness
says they can't fall for more than 6 months due to demand

Interesting. We were told for a long time that they couldn't fall AT ALL, "due to demand".

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Guest pioneer31
the other thing is he is seems very very self-confident, I inately distrust such over-self-confidence, even tho it often brings people considerable success - things like elements of identical wording between his personal utube webpage and the article on him in wikipedia, his dedication to religion,

believes in fairy stories huh? enough said

Edited by pioneer31

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Guest Bart of Darkness
"Here Doctor - take this pistol and hold them off for as long as you can while we escape in these dinghies"

:lol:

or, alternatively, from "Tomorrow Never Dies".

Dr. Kaufman: I was just doing my job.

James Bond: So am I [shoots him].

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When house prices start falling considerably I can imagine the media will run a lot of stories about how its just a temporary glitch and prices will recover soon. I reckon the sheeple will believe it too and will be sitting waiting just to jump in when there is a small fall in prices thinking they are getting a bargain.

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Guest AuntJess
When house prices start falling considerably I can imagine the media will run a lot of stories about how its just a temporary glitch and prices will recover soon. I reckon the sheeple will believe it too and will be sitting waiting just to jump in when there is a small fall in prices thinking they are getting a bargain.

I suppose that they have to say something like that, or no one will be buying for YEARS!! :o

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Guest Bart of Darkness
When house prices start falling considerably I can imagine the media will run a lot of stories about how its just a temporary glitch and prices will recover soon

Exactly what they did last time.

Link.

Friday 17 NOV 1989 - The Times - House prices to recover next year

House prices are expected to reach a turning point in the third quarter of next year after a two-year decline, Charterhouse the merchant and investment banking group said yesterday in its annual study of the housing market.

Sunday 14 OCT 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices bottom out

The long slide in house prices could be nearing its end. The Halifax's latest quarterly survey of the property market shows that prices in general rose by 0.5% in September, and the indications are of a definite bottoming-out.

Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - House-price surge is on the way, but wait for it

Plummeting prices, higher earnings and mortgage rates of less than 10% have set the stage for a housing market revival next year, when prices are expected to rise by more than inflation.

Saturday 02 MAY 1992 - The Times - House prices begin to rise

House prices rose by 0.7 per cent last month, making the average cost of a home Pounds 55,565, the Nationwide Building Society, said yesterday. The rise comes after four months of falling prices.

Thursday 16 DEC 1993 - The Times - House price boom predicted for 1994

House prices will rise by 19 per cent across the country next year, and by 25 per cent in the prime areas of London, according to the research department of Savills estate agent.

As we all know, house prices did rise.

Eventually....... <_<

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
It's hard to ignore someone as celebrated and esteemed in certain business circles - a futurist, a predictor of long term trends

strikes me as a very bright chap, but his bullish argument is "same old same old"

the other thing is he is seems very very self-confident, I inately distrust such over-self-confidence, even tho it often brings people considerable success - things like elements of identical wording between his personal utube webpage and the article on him in wikipedia, his dedication to religion, etc. Give me Krigman or Bootle any day, but there you have it, his views still deserve some airing here. He's not an economist, incidentally, but a medical doctor by training.

edit: accidental rude language!

Overleveraged. Couldn't take the heat of a real job in medicine.

Seems to be a little shiller for the highest bidder.

RFID chips being a favorite.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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It's hard to ignore someone as celebrated and esteemed in certain business circles - a futurist, a predictor of long term trends

strikes me as a very bright chap, but his bullish argument is "same old same old"

the other thing is he is seems very very self-confident, I inately distrust such over-self-confidence, even tho it often brings people considerable success - things like elements of identical wording between his personal utube webpage and the article on him in wikipedia, his dedication to religion, etc. Give me Krigman or Bootle any day, but there you have it, his views still deserve some airing here. He's not an economist, incidentally, but a medical doctor by training.

edit: accidental rude language!

Of course this dude has no vested interest at all .

Look at what he paid for his house in 2000 .

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=1%2C+...W5+2AN&n=10

Only £1,225,000 .

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
So he's a sci-fi writer who can't handle fictional prose.

He should stick to wittering about nano-bots and space tourism.

Fool.

Or start a cult, but sue anyone who tries to call it a cult.

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Or start a cult, but sue anyone who tries to call it a cult.

Heh. yeah the mind******s are certainly a mean bunch. Still, they can't be blamed for the crusades or the spanish inquisition.

As the old joke goes, the difference between a cult and a religion is about 2000 years.

Screw the lot of them. I'm with Dr Dawkins.

Edited by geneer

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Exactly what they did last time.

Link.

Friday 17 NOV 1989 - The Times - House prices to recover next year

House prices are expected to reach a turning point in the third quarter of next year after a two-year decline, Charterhouse the merchant and investment banking group said yesterday in its annual study of the housing market.

Sunday 14 OCT 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices bottom out

The long slide in house prices could be nearing its end. The Halifax's latest quarterly survey of the property market shows that prices in general rose by 0.5% in September, and the indications are of a definite bottoming-out.

Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - House-price surge is on the way, but wait for it

Plummeting prices, higher earnings and mortgage rates of less than 10% have set the stage for a housing market revival next year, when prices are expected to rise by more than inflation.

Saturday 02 MAY 1992 - The Times - House prices begin to rise

Good post, seen similar before (not just back then!) but a good reminder.

House prices rose by 0.7 per cent last month, making the average cost of a home Pounds 55,565, the Nationwide Building Society, said yesterday. The rise comes after four months of falling prices.

Thursday 16 DEC 1993 - The Times - House price boom predicted for 1994

House prices will rise by 19 per cent across the country next year, and by 25 per cent in the prime areas of London, according to the research department of Savills estate agent.

As we all know, house prices did rise.

Eventually....... <_<

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It's hard to ignore someone as celebrated and esteemed in certain business circles - a futurist, a predictor of long term trends

strikes me as a very bright chap, but his bullish argument is "same old same old"

the other thing is he is seems very very self-confident.

Where was this clown in 2000 predicting housing would be 200% more expensive in 7 years time, any tool can predict future events after the event, here's my contribution, yesterday the UK is going to enjoy glorious sunshine.

Anytime I see anyone standing up and claiming to be an expert at predicting the future I always think to myself, "Shut the ****up and sit down t**t", maybe its just me. :unsure:

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As you say, nothing new.

see his video:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=qPuE_-qAWD4

here's an exchange i had with him:

BubbFromGEI (2 weeks ago) :

Well, that was a remarkably one-sided argument! What about: the huge SPECULATIVE component of demand, the poor yield returns, and the excessively lax lending. Surely, the cycle is about to roll over. Just look what is happening in the US.

pjvdixon (2 weeks ago) :

Well I am giving a longer term view. You are right that in any market we see cycles of demand and housing is no different. As I explained in the video, the tax environment in the UK encourages people to over-invest in housing beyond their personal needs, for example as an alternative to pension planning.

- -

Should I respond?

oh dear, he's just described micro-behaviours characteristic of a bubble.

Up to you if you respond or not, you seem to enjoy jousting with bulls. I increasingly prefer to tell them to f*** off with direct reference to their hackneyed arguments of yore, such is the case for the bears currently. Interesting that he argues with you at all. If he IS the heavyweioght he reckons he is then he shouldn't have the time or the inclination to deal with the likes of you or me. Bootle, King or any other real heavyweights just wouldn't have the time, so why is he being so micro-egotistical to argue at our level? cos he's scared, and not that hot in the first place. just a bad sci fi writer.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

This headline from 1992 caught my eye:

Sunday 21 JUN 1992 - The Sunday Times - 'Boom days gone forever' as house prices still fall

The housing market is showing no signs of recovery and will remain depressed for the next five years as cautious buyers adjust to new economic circumstances, says an authoritative report to be published on Tuesday.

"Gone forever"? Not quite.

But not a million miles away from "house prices only ever go up".

Is there a vested interest in people not understanding market cycles?

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pjvdixon (2 weeks ago) :

Well I am giving a longer term view. You are right that in any market we see cycles of demand and housing is no different. As I explained in the video, the tax environment in the UK encourages people to over-invest in housing beyond their personal needs, for example as an alternative to pension planning.

- -

Should I respond?

He spends quite a while talking about the small island/housing shortage/not building enough houses argument.

To understand why the "housing shortage" argument, as used to explain the rapid house price growth, is a load of nonsense,you need to understand some fairly basic economic concepts.

Firstly, a house is an asset. Secondly, housing is the ongoing economic benefit that we derive from that asset. The value of the house (the asset) is the present value of the economic benefit (housing) it provides. Basically we build houses because they provide us with housing.

So what does this mean? Well we don't measure the price of housing by the price of the house, we measure it by the price of housing.

In a similar way a train is an asset, and it provides an economic service, transport. You don't measure the cost of transport by the price of the train, but by the price of the train fare, ie by the value of the economic benefit it provides.

So how do we measure the price of housing? Well that's very easy, you head over to the latest ONS inflation report, and there you will find the cost of housing, measured using rents, because rents represent the ongoing economic benefit from the asset.

Now if you look at rents you will find that they rise in line with wages, and have done for donkey's years.

In the last year house prices have risen by about 12%, rents by about 3.5%.

The "Housing shortage", used as an excuse for HPI, is an argument for uninformed people, and the Doctor should know better.

What this guy should spend his time trying to understand is why house prices have risen faster than rent or wages, because that is where the problem lies.

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