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Timm

All This Crazy Talk Reminds Me

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I was driving around Oxford on a series of valuations. I was somewhat different to the bear you see today, after all, it was almost six years ago. I still smoked in those days, I was thinner, and probably better looking. I had a well cut suit, and the firm had given me a flash working car. I had my elbow out the window, the radio was turned up, and I was wearing shades. I was listening to Mark and Lard on Radio One, who were talking about a US crash. Such a thing was quite unthinkable in those days, but it appeared that they were pretending to take it seriously. It was a sunny day, and I was not really listening, but I remember thinking the pair of pranksters were quite convincing for a change. Anyway, I got a text from my current squeeze saying she was worried about her brother, who was helping to set up an office for Foxtons in New York . Thinking he might be facing the sack, I texted back, asking why, and she replied "It is under attack." In a cold moment of dawning clarity, I understood that the radio was telling me about planes crashing into the world trade centre, and she was worried her brother might be dead.

The current wild rumours sort of remind me of those few minutes, after I had been told of the attacks, but had refused to accept them as being quite literally; unthinkable. While I still hold the belief that we will see control of this liquidity crisis, but tightened lending and growing defaults, I'm thinking: are the tin hats right, and am I just not listening?

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I was driving around Oxford on a series of valuations. I was somewhat different to the bear you see today, after all, it was almost six years ago. I still smoked in those days, I was thinner, and probably better looking. I had a well cut suit, and the firm had given me a flash working car. I had my elbow out the window, the radio was turned up, and I was wearing shades. I was listening to Mark and Lard on Radio One, who were talking about a US crash. Such a thing was quite unthinkable in those days, but it appeared that they were pretending to take it seriously. It was a sunny day, and I was not really listening, but I remember thinking the pair of pranksters were quite convincing for a change. Anyway, I got a text from my current squeeze saying she was worried about her brother, who was helping to set up an office for Foxtons in New York . Thinking he might be facing the sack, I texted back, asking why, and she replied "It is under attack." In a cold moment of dawning clarity, I understood that the radio was telling me about planes crashing into the world trade centre, and she was worried her brother might be dead.

The current wild rumours sort of remind me of those few minutes, after I had been told of the attacks, but had refused to accept them as being quite literally; unthinkable. While I still hold the belief that we will see control of this liquidity crisis, but tightened lending and growing defaults, I'm thinking: are the tin hats right, and am I just not listening?

I think you'll find it was Moylesy who was on at the time of the attack :P Know what you mean about the current state of affairs though-not good IMO not good at all!!! As for you being an estate agent-glad to hear you saw the error of your ways :)

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The current wild rumours sort of remind me of those few minutes, after I had been told of the attacks, but had refused to accept them as being quite literally; unthinkable. While I still hold the belief that we will see control of this liquidity crisis, but tightened lending and growing defaults, I'm thinking: are the tin hats right, and am I just not listening?

No you are listening.

liquidity problems are going to be with everybody for a few years and this will mean tightened lending.

Raised interest rates will mean more defaults.

Wage inflation will make property seem less expensive.

I think its all going to happen in slow motion.

RB can call it a crash that started in Q1 if he wants to but it wont be a good description

Crash no not really - IMO a slow deflate.

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Financial armageddon re "tightened lending and growing defaults" (stonethecrows):

I may be an STR bear and a bit of a tin hat, but even from a personal perspective, I'm hoping for the latter rather than the former.

It will be enough to bring prices down, and I won't have to start hoarding baked beans!

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
I was driving around Oxford on a series of valuations. I was somewhat different to the bear you see today, after all, it was almost six years ago. I still smoked in those days, I was thinner, and probably better looking. I had a well cut suit, and the firm had given me a flash working car. I had my elbow out the window, the radio was turned up, and I was wearing shades. I was listening to Mark and Lard on Radio One, who were talking about a US crash. Such a thing was quite unthinkable in those days, but it appeared that they were pretending to take it seriously. It was a sunny day, and I was not really listening, but I remember thinking the pair of pranksters were quite convincing for a change. Anyway, I got a text from my current squeeze saying she was worried about her brother, who was helping to set up an office for Foxtons in New York . Thinking he might be facing the sack, I texted back, asking why, and she replied "It is under attack." In a cold moment of dawning clarity, I understood that the radio was telling me about planes crashing into the world trade centre, and she was worried her brother might be dead.

The current wild rumours sort of remind me of those few minutes, after I had been told of the attacks, but had refused to accept them as being quite literally; unthinkable. While I still hold the belief that we will see control of this liquidity crisis, but tightened lending and growing defaults, I'm thinking: are the tin hats right, and am I just not listening?

My neighbours are now looking plump and juicy, and I've bought some British made land mines to protect my property.

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I think you'll find it was Moylesy who was on at the time of the attack :P Know what you mean about the current state of affairs though-not good IMO not good at all!!! As for you being an estate agent-glad to hear you saw the error of your ways :)

Veering very off topic - but I first heard about the attack from Mark & Lard at about 2:30pm - didn't Moyles do the drive time show from 4:00pm back then?

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No you are listening.

liquidity problems are going to be with everybody for a few years and this will mean tightened lending.

Raised interest rates will mean more defaults.

Wage inflation will make property seem less expensive.

I think its all going to happen in slow motion.

RB can call it a crash that started in Q1 if he wants to but it wont be a good description

Crash no not really - IMO a slow deflate.

Ahhh, the fabled 'soft landing' which has occurred after every other boom in history....IMHO. ;)

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Veering very off topic - but I first heard about the attack from Mark & Lard at about 2:30pm - didn't Moyles do the drive time show from 4:00pm back then?

That would fit with my recollection. Thought I was going mad!

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That would fit with my recollection. Thought I was going mad!

I was in my thesis supervisor's office at the time. He said he'd just had an email saying a plane had flown into the Trade Centre. We thought they had meant a small Cesna type plane and carried on. Over the next few minutes his computer started to bleep more and more frequently until we decided to break off and see what all the fuss was about. The CNN and BBC webpages wouldn't load due to internet traffic so I went over to the student union and saw it all unfold on TV. I literally couldn't believe what I was seeing. I kept wanting to believe it was some an elaborate special effects trailer for Godzilla 2 or something but at the same time I knew it wasn't fake. It was like having a discontinuity in my head: reality wasn't real!

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We thought they had meant a small Cesna type plane and carried on.

That's what my first thought was at the time! It was only when I suggested that one of the others find out via WAP that it hit home.

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I was in my thesis supervisor's office at the time. He said he'd just had an email saying a plane had flown into the Trade Centre.

I always had a soft spot for the WTC, the Manhatten skyline just isn't complete anymore...

Actually I reckoned they should have rebuilt them, it would have been such a positive step

and would have demonstrated to Osama and his mates the power of a free economy.

The symbolism would have been huge...

You knocked 'em down? OK, we'll just rebuild and get on with our lives so 4uck you Mr Laden!

Yes, they would be a target again but so is every tall building in the world...

...the solution lies elsewhere...

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I think what is funniest about all of this is how much we have come to validate all forms of life as being sustainable!

Step back for a second and think about human history as a whole. When in human history has anyone been able to plan ahead with any form of security at all? No sooner do you get your little cottage up and running when a band of 6 foot Celts painted blue are running down your hill wanting to hack you to pieces! The Celts move on and then the Vikings are coming up the river wanting to do the same thing! Now we have chavs and neds who will stab you just for? well because they want to and can!

Security is a dream. A noble one but a dream all the same. Humanity has never attained peace and security and to my mind unless the bible is correct and we can at some stage be governed by a spirtiual leader rather than a human one never will!

Planning is prudent but tenuous at best because of all the variables and unknowns not to mention the known knowns and the known unknowns! Are there anymore?

As Solomon said. What is the point of all my works? A chasing after the wind is all it is. Who is to say that a fool will not come after me and ruin it all! I think we have had many fools since Solomons day!

I think we are a great and pathetic species at the same time. Individually great but collectivly barbaric and could not organise a piss up in a bewery if our very lives depended on it!

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Planning is prudent but tenuous at best because of all the variables and unknowns not to mention the known knowns and the known unknowns! Are there anymore?

It's the unknown unknowns that get you ;)

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This is another one of those events like when Kennedy got shot isnt it. They say everyone remembers where they were when they heard about it. I was collecting my son from school at just after 3pm and Im sure it was Moylesy I heard announce that one of the towers had collapsed after being hit by a plane and I thought (as you would) that it was a windup at first-Mark and Lard may well have been on air when the planes first hit. As soon as we got home I switched on the Roger Melly and sat watching in disbelief for a good hour or so after that.

Couldnt agree more Soul Reaver that we are a great yet pathetic species. We like to believe we are sooo civilised but the fact is that in spite of many great achievements we can all to quickly and easily revert back to the 'laws of the jungle' and behave like bloody animals! :(

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I was at home recovering from having my appendix removed and watched it all on TV.

.

I am slightly ashamed to admit that my first thought was not about the tragedy of the

event itself but "Oh F**K, the yanks are going to go mental over this"

.

Two wars, the "patriot act", extrodinary rendition, guantanamo, Abu Gariab later....

I think my gut instinct was right, the reaction was far worse than the impact of the

event itself.

.

ST

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The current wild rumours sort of remind me of those few minutes, after I had been told of the attacks, but had refused to accept them as being quite literally; unthinkable. While I still hold the belief that we will see control of this liquidity crisis, but tightened lending and growing defaults, I'm thinking: are the tin hats right, and am I just not listening?

ive noted that many arguments on HPC are treated in isolation, they often assume that nothing else exists to counteract the predicted events. For example people talk of job losses but never consider new jobs created. Sectors that are failing without considering people are resourceful and adaptable and will find new ways to make a living etc.

My point is that I think it is wrong to think that nothing will be done to keep things as stable as possible, yet such action is never considered. Whether it can be controlled or not I dont know... they'll certainly have a good go!

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This is another one of those events like when Kennedy got shot isnt it. They say everyone remembers where they were when they heard about it.

Indeed. Mine was pretty spooky as well - i happened to be in a training course on the 34th floor or the UK's tallest office block that morning. All the other attendants (employees from other banks) phones going off getting the news. Could see staff looking out of the window ominously - didn't last long as we all got evacuated.

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