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Big Us Bank Going Down?

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i'd say it's evens between Bear and Lehman

I used to work for Lehman until last month, I don't think they were anywhere near as heavily involved in sub-prime as Bear Stearns so would doubt it's them.

My money would be on Bear if it's anyone.

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i'd say it's evens between Bear and Lehman

There have been rumours about Lehmans in past troubled times (e.g. in 1998), there could be something in it this time possibly given how tied up with the sub-prime business they are although it's not clear to me how much of it they own as opposed to have sold on to others. If either of these two were in real trouble though, I would have expected it to show up in other ways first, particularly in their prime brokerage businesses where they would have started reducing the leverage available to customers in order to liberate some cash.

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Guest Shedfish

what a bunch of investment bankers - looks like you bought a lemon, brothers... need someone to wachovia in future...

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That's interesting, I wonder what the assets backing their ABCP programme are? If it's all the sub-prime stuff they packaged up themselves, it could put them at real risk. If it's other more saleable stuff they could presumably sell most of it quite quickly and take a big loss but not blow up.

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Guest Shedfish
That's interesting, I wonder what the assets backing their ABCP programme are? If it's all the sub-prime stuff they packaged up themselves, it could put them at real risk. If it's other more saleable stuff they could presumably sell most of it quite quickly and take a big loss but not blow up.

i think they shorted Black Swan futures...

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If someone had a good job for the past seven years and then within 3 weeks of lossing there job found that they could not even aford to buy food then something is wrong but this is what we are seeing happen to banks after years of boom, boom

Could just be that this someone had a gambling addiction, hence no money for a rainy day.

Yeah sure this somebody might just get a new job next week but longer term the future does not look bright.

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Ok... assume that I am really, really thick :unsure: What does that chart actually mean? Explain in words of not more than 2 syllabils please :unsure:

Banks only lend to each other at a very high risk premium. So, what do they know what we don't?

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Re: Lehman Brothers

"The bank was selling risk across the board last week at prices to clear. There is a lot of activity behind the scenes"

They have massive exposure in the fixed-income business, and as their board's current strategy regarding rumours of losses is a consistent "no comment", then they are seen by the Wall Street rumour mill as being in trouble. Hence the collapse in their share price over the last few weeks.

No-one outside Lehman knows the reality, it's simply that (currently) perception of risk is driving the market.

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Re: Lehman Brothers

"The bank was selling risk across the board last week at prices to clear. There is a lot of activity behind the scenes"

They have massive exposure in the fixed-income business, and as their board's current strategy regarding rumours of losses is a consistent "no comment", then they are seen by the Wall Street rumour mill as being in trouble. Hence the collapse in their share price over the last few weeks.

No-one outside Lehman knows the reality, it's simply that (currently) perception of risk is driving the market.

Lehman's chart is bad but no different really to other banks.

When insiders start to sell we'll know the truth.

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