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Link To Nigel Jenkinsons Explosive Speech

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here is a link to a recent speech given by Jenkinson

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...7/speech315.pdf

Explosive stuff to drool over. The next step is a slide in the dollar and sterling as the rest of the world start to realise how overextended brits and yanks are. When you look at the greed of house owners and pensioners in both nations you start to realise just how unsustainable these two markets have become. Let's hope the 'money for nothing' generation get what they deserve....

What's needed is a prolonged period of house price deflation and a roll-back of public services and public and corporate pension commitments. They should start with the grossly generous pensions paid to the police, firemen and MPs. These are all non-value creating jobs bolstered by a union mentality and infinite public accounts budgets. The next step should be a complete overhaul of Gordons ugly socialist state which puts honest wealth creators last (the middle classes) and wealth squanderers first (government employees, and those who claim to 'make the markets' like the once heralded hedge fund managers).

Edited by bpw

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here is a link to a recent speech given by Jenkinson

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...7/speech315.pdf

Explosive stuff to drool over. The next step is a slide in the dollar and sterling as the rest of the world start to realise how overextended brits and yanks are. When you look at the greed of house owners and pensioners in both nations you start to realise just how unsustainable these two markets have become. Let's hope the 'money for nothing' generation get what they deserve....

What's needed is a prolonged period of house price deflation and a roll-back of public services and public and corporate pension commitments. They should start with the grossly generous pensions paid to the police, firemen and MPs. These are all non-value creating jobs bolstered by a union mentality and infinite public accounts budgets. The next step should be a complete overhaul of Gordons ugly socialist state which puts honest wealth creators last (the middle classes) and wealth squanderers first (government employees, and those who claim to 'make the markets' like the once heralded hedge fund managers).

Good work!

Banks may,therefore, find themselves unable to access normal sources of funding liquidity. The
measures to which a bank in this situation would have to resort, such as large scale
asset sales, could have major adverse spill over effects through the system, as could
the most extreme case of an outright failure to meet obligations as they fall due.
Liquidity buffers may help in this regard: a bank holding a buffer of assets that is
reliably liquid under conditions of stress, perhaps with a core component that is
eligible as collateral at the central bank, should always be able to access liquidity in a
way that avoids precipitating severe market disruption
...../
(Conclusion)
While financial institutions are in a strong financial position,
risk taking has
increased and the vulnerability of the financial system as a whole to a sharp change in
conditions has risen.
Against this background, and given the
considerable uncertainty
regarding how many new complex financial products would perform in more strained
market conditions, it is important to improve the analysis and understanding of tail
risks through systemic stress tests and thereby strengthen risk management, to ensure
that financial institutions retain strong buffers of capital and liquidity, and that
investment in the financial and legal infrastructure keeps pace with market
developments and thus ensures that it remains robust and resilient.

According to the World Bank's website* UK Plc owes 10 Trillion $ and most of it is institutional/bank debt. If the creditors are calling in the loans due to risk aversion that sum, or a large part thereof, will have to be paid back. What does Gordon do? Print or go to the IMF and borrow even more? A great deal of money is being repatriated to the US as international stocks are sold off and the flight to safety is seeing large amounts move into US Treasuries--they may have their markers better covered than we do.

When my banking friend told me a couple of months ago that the crisis had 1929 written all over it I can see more clearly what he meant by that. I shall be meeting with him later this morning to see what he knows about his own particular bank he consults with. I have recently switched most of my STM fund into US FDIC CDs and noted on the Fidelity website that billions have been moving out of money markets into CDs which are guaranteed by the US government. "Rumour" last week was that trillions in money markets had been bet on the derivatives markets and that the usual safety net may not be in place for these funds if there is a run on them.

_______

* http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/D...1805415,00.html

Edited by Realistbear

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They should start with the grossly generous pensions paid to the police, firemen and MPs. These are all non-value creating jobs bolstered by a union mentality and infinite public accounts budgets. The next step should be a complete overhaul of Gordons ugly socialist state which puts honest wealth creators last (the middle classes) and wealth squanderers first (government employees, and those who claim to 'make the markets' like the once heralded hedge fund managers).

I agree, and have said so on previous threads. The state sector pensions are totally unsustainable. When (and it is when, not if) the government finally has to act there will be blood on the streets. They will start with LA workers, then teachers, then NHS workers and finish up with the Police and armed services - this is because they will be needed to sort out the inevitable unrest.

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I agree, and have said so on previous threads. The state sector pensions are totally unsustainable. When (and it is when, not if) the government finally has to act there will be blood on the streets. They will start with LA workers, then teachers, then NHS workers and finish up with the Police and armed services - this is because they will be needed to sort out the inevitable unrest.

They've already made changes to the current armed forces package. It's compulsory for new recruits but was an option for serving personnel. They can't legally just change things overnight as contracts have been signed and exchanged.

Personally I don't think it would work. You don't piss off your key workers unless you want to bring the country to it's knees.

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They've already made changes to the current armed forces package. It's compulsory for new recruits but was an option for serving personnel. They can't legally just change things overnight as contracts have been signed and exchanged.

Personally I don't think it would work. You don't piss off your key workers unless you want to bring the country to it's knees.

Esxpecially as we may need them back home sooner than planned. :o

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This is an excellent speech. I am not sure if this was the one that he was planning to give again - but which has now be postponed.

However, the thing that bothers me is why no actions were taken by central banks if the analysis that is presented in this speech was being discussed. Indeed, many people on HPC have been discussing it on and off for well over a year now!

It seems to me that the problem has been well known for some time, but insufficient action was taken to ensure that the financial system was secure. Pumping money in after the system seized up is similar to an ambulance dash to Accident & Emergency after a heart attack when simple preventative medicine could have been administered years ago that would have done less harm to the patient.

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They can't legally just change things overnight as contracts have been signed and exchanged.

grow up. They can change anything whenever they like. Gordon Brown has already demonstrated this with his past actions including 'post dating' tax legislation which was (and still is) a clear breach of human rights. Has anyone complained? of course not. Not while houses keep going upa squillion a day tax free.

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They haven't changed my contract without my personal blessing and they wouldn't because the can't. Having been a member of one of the services for 20 years, I've seen a lot of redundancies, changes in policy and changes in contracts. None have yet been compulsory.

I haven't been told to grow up for a long time though, PG. Thank you. It's made me feel quite invigourated. :rolleyes:

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This is an excellent speech. I am not sure if this was the one that he was planning to give again - but which has now be postponed.

However, the thing that bothers me is why no actions were taken by central banks if the analysis that is presented in this speech was being discussed. Indeed, many people on HPC have been discussing it on and off for well over a year now!

It seems to me that the problem has been well known for some time, but insufficient action was taken to ensure that the financial system was secure. Pumping money in after the system seized up is similar to an ambulance dash to Accident & Emergency after a heart attack when simple preventative medicine could have been administered years ago that would have done less harm to the patient.

I must say, I find it very strange that the events of the last few weeks have been so widely predicted by so many commentators, city traders and indeed members of the central banks themselves for so long and yet nothing was done. I can only conclude that rather than being stupid, as a few who post here would have us believe, those who had the power to act were either too busy making money for themselves to care, or were too afraid of taking action for fear of being blamed for causing the very thing they were trying to prevent.

Unlike a heart condition, if you administer painful medicine to avoid a financial crisis, it becomes very difficult to prove that the crisis would have occurred if you hadn't administered it. So rather than being heralded as a life saver if you act, your are condemned as a torturer. Much better to do nothing and just say "I told you so" after the event.

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Guest vicmac64
They've already made changes to the current armed forces package. It's compulsory for new recruits but was an option for serving personnel. They can't legally just change things overnight as contracts have been signed and exchanged.

Personally I don't think it would work. You don't piss off your key workers unless you want to bring the country to it's knees.

Key workers are those keeping the economy going - not those with their noses in the trough.

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What's needed is a prolonged period of house price deflation and a roll-back of public services and public and corporate pension commitments. They should start with the grossly generous pensions paid to the police, firemen and MPs. These are all non-value creating jobs bolstered by a union mentality and infinite public accounts budgets. The next step should be a complete overhaul of Gordons ugly socialist state which puts honest wealth creators last (the middle classes) and wealth squanderers first (government employees, and those who claim to 'make the markets' like the once heralded hedge fund managers).

Has to be said though, they dont have it that easy. I am not rushing out to join the army, be a police man or a teacher. Pretty thankless task. Also being a socialist is a good thing surely? Striving for a more just and equal society where oppertunity is available to all, the old, the sick and the underprivalaged are cared for and the boundries between nations are eroded. The right wing aganeda seems to be driven by fear, mistrust and jelousy. Never attractive traits in anyone. Dont appeal to me much anyway.

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. Also being a socialist is a good thing surely? .

Yes, a good thing if you are a socialist, live in Scotland or Wales, are in the Quango trough, if your are in consultancy legitimisation business, do some government paid job with a pension, believe socialists are morally superior and hence more equal, resent the success of others and envy individual achievement so much that you want everyone to succeeed to the same level despite the logical impossibility of such a goal.

A*** 'A'levels for all!

Big houses for everyone!

Free money!

Tax the rich! If there's not enough of them, tax the poor more!

Feed the world!

End global poverty!

Flat screens are a human right!

End pollution NOW!

Encourage the whole world to benefit from UK benefits and free health care!

You too can be RICH under New Labour! Watch out for Tony Blair giving awy his £8m book advance! Gordon Brown is of course quite different. Duh!

Socialists CARE (for each other).

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Yes, a good thing if you are a socialist, live in Scotland or Wales, are in the Quango trough, if your are in consultancy legitimisation business, do some government paid job with a pension, believe socialists are morally superior and hence more equal, resent the success of others and envy individual achievement so much that you want everyone to succeeed to the same level despite the logical impossibility of such a goal.

That is just plane not true. I am a socialist and greatly admire anyone who has achieved, through hard work and ability, success. They deserve the financial and other rewards which go along with that. I work in the private sector. I don't know anyone who works harder or longer than myself. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need is as true today as it was in Marx's time. I refuse to sit guarding my little pile of crumbs and scowling out the world. If nothing else, it is undignified and lacks style.

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here is a link to a recent speech given by Jenkinson

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...7/speech315.pdf

Explosive stuff to drool over. The next step is a slide in the dollar and sterling as the rest of the world start to realise how overextended brits and yanks are. When you look at the greed of house owners and pensioners in both nations you start to realise just how unsustainable these two markets have become. Let's hope the 'money for nothing' generation get what they deserve....

What's needed is a prolonged period of house price deflation and a roll-back of public services and public and corporate pension commitments. They should start with the grossly generous pensions paid to the police, firemen and MPs. These are all non-value creating jobs bolstered by a union mentality and infinite public accounts budgets. The next step should be a complete overhaul of Gordons ugly socialist state which puts honest wealth creators last (the middle classes) and wealth squanderers first (government employees, and those who claim to 'make the markets' like the once heralded hedge fund managers).

"rant mode on"

I get a little tired of the public sector being lumped into one boat and all getting it in the neck for its pension rights. MP's are ripe for being singled becuase they tend to vote themselves more generous conditions each year that passes, but for the rest of us it is not so black and white.

My scheme the Firemans pension scheme which demands 11.75% contributions which has never been invested but spent by previous goverments. How many people contribute that level of payment towards their pension every month?

Since the schemes inception previous goverments have been very happy to take the contributions and spend the massive surplus they have enjoyed over many years but now the scheme has matured we are finding that the tax payer now has to prop up the scheme and it is deemed over generous.

If I fulfill my contract by paying my full contributions and give my years of qualifying service then I feel it is only fair that the goverment fulfil their side of the contract. I like anyone responsible am planning and paying for my retirement.

The old scheme that I am on has been closed to new entrants since April 2007. The new scheme is less generous but the new entrants have the option to consider this when deciding to pursue a career.The goverment did try to change the conditions of the old scheme but luckly was defeated. This is not to say that we will face this action again and the scheme benefits may be watered down in the future. In retrospect I am now wondering if it would of been better to have invested my contributions elsewhere.

How can you say that Fire and Rescue is a non-value job when we prevent death,injury and mitigate losses from flood,fire,chemical,special service and biological incidents? This all also has a economic value to the economy.

"rant mode off" :rolleyes:

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. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need is as true today as it was in Marx's time.

Problem: it was no more true then than it is now.

What happens when the state pays out to all equally and collects all excess in to redistribute according to need is that people have no incentive to work or save so the whole pile of envy collapses and we find that 'need' depends upon links to the apparatchik.

Socialism is certainly 'holier than thou' (no one works harder than a socialist nor cares more for others) and that's the root of its problem.

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here is a link to a recent speech given by Jenkinson

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...7/speech315.pdf

Explosive stuff to drool over. The next step is a slide in the dollar and sterling as the rest of the world start to realise how overextended brits and yanks are. When you look at the greed of house owners and pensioners in both nations you start to realise just how unsustainable these two markets have become. Let's hope the 'money for nothing' generation get what they deserve....

What's needed is a prolonged period of house price deflation and a roll-back of public services and public and corporate pension commitments. They should start with the grossly generous pensions paid to the police, firemen and MPs. These are all non-value creating jobs bolstered by a union mentality and infinite public accounts budgets. The next step should be a complete overhaul of Gordons ugly socialist state which puts honest wealth creators last (the middle classes) and wealth squanderers first (government employees, and those who claim to 'make the markets' like the once heralded hedge fund managers).

And pray what value creating job do you do ?

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Well I would have thought watching whats happening with the stock markets and central banks now

would put paid to the myth that we are living in a free market or of that of the invisible hand.

Free market discipline only applies to the poor. We have followed the neoliberal agenda, and look where its got us,

to another recession/depression, you would have thought we had learnt by the past and the causes of the great depression

of 1929.

Also that jobs can be divided up as either wealth generating or wealth consuming, work is either useful to society in some

way or it is not. A lot of jobs in the financial sector and estate agencies are have we have discovered recently are actually

damaging to our economy and society. A lot of people have gotten very rich and their only contribution is that they have

sold the country and its people down the river. And we are meant to look up to them, they are our role models.

Well I dont look upto them, I wouldnt piss on them if they was on fire.

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Well I would have thought watching whats happening with the stock markets and central banks now

would put paid to the myth that we are living in a free market or of that of the invisible hand.

Free market discipline only applies to the poor. We have followed the neoliberal agenda, and look where its got us,

to another recession/depression, you would have thought we had learnt by the past and the causes of the great depression

of 1929.

Also that jobs can be divided up as either wealth generating or wealth consuming, work is either useful to society in some

way or it is not. A lot of jobs in the financial sector and estate agencies are have we have discovered recently are actually

damaging to our economy and society. A lot of people have gotten very rich and their only contribution is that they have

sold the country and its people down the river. And we are meant to look up to them, they are our role models.

Well I dont look upto them, I wouldnt piss on them if they was on fire.

Beyond your full bladder and the understandable desire for relief, I am not sure what your point is, exactly.

By definition, free markets cannot have any discipline or they would not be free. Perfect marktets are hypothetical, not real.

I don't understand what an neoliberal 'agenda' is or could be. Sounds self-contradictory to me.

I can't comprehend an invisible hand, how would I know it was there let alone even being a hand?

Is there a 1929 depression happening now? I see no signs of it. I do read a lot of imagination-less idiots wanting one though.

Some people might be rich - so what? I dont have a problem with that. I am very happy for other people to be successful. I do not resent them or want to tax them out of existence for my own benefit.

I do not look up to anybody per se. I do admire some people for a variety or reasons and accomplishments. I would rather live in a world of achievers than a world of envy, jealousy and resentment.

The man who tried to put out the killer-cult Islamist at Glasgow airport gets my vote. He was so desirous of saving life HE would have resorted to piss had that been all that was available.

Shame on you.

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They've already made changes to the current armed forces package. It's compulsory for new recruits but was an option for serving personnel. They can't legally just change things overnight as contracts have been signed and exchanged.

Personally I don't think it would work. You don't piss off your key workers unless you want to bring the country to it's knees.

There's no such thing as "key workers". Unless you mean everyone who works in the productive side of the economy (i.e. not the state).

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Beyond your full bladder and the understandable desire for relief, I am not sure what your point is, exactly.

By definition, free markets cannot have any discipline or they would not be free. Perfect marktets are hypothetical, not real.

I don't understand what an neoliberal 'agenda' is or could be. Sounds self-contradictory to me.

I can't comprehend an invisible hand, how would I know it was there let alone even being a hand?

Is there a 1929 depression happening now? I see no signs of it. I do read a lot of imagination-less idiots wanting one though.

Some people might be rich - so what? I dont have a problem with that. I am very happy for other people to be successful. I do not resent them or want to tax them out of existence for my own benefit.

I do not look up to anybody per se. I do admire some people for a variety or reasons and accomplishments. I would rather live in a world of achievers than a world of envy, jealousy and resentment.

The man who tried to put out the killer-cult Islamist at Glasgow airport gets my vote. He was so desirous of saving life HE would have resorted to piss had that been all that was available.

Shame on you.

You sir are a ****!

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From each according to his ability, to each according to his need is as true today as it was in Marx's time.

Human nature being what it is, it's become more like 'from each according to whether he'd rather scrounge or work'.

Don't get me wrong, I believe in socialist ideology and am happy to see some of my labour going to support it provided that the requirement to make such contributions is universal. At the moment the system gives you a choice of being a tax-slave, or a benefit-parasite.

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There's no such thing as "key workers". Unless you mean everyone who works in the productive side of the economy (i.e. not the state).

The state/private boundary says nothing about where the productive side of the economy is. I've seen plenty of non-jobs in the private sector, jobs that are only maintained to protect a manager's turf, or to hide the fact that he over-specified the project's staffing requirements.

Jobs like doctors and teachers exist in both sectors; the value added (treated patients, educated children) does not depend on whose name is on the employment contract. There's even a case to be made that a system such as the US one, where healthcare is private and seen as a profit centre for the hospitals and insurance companies concerned, costs tend to inflate beyond reason (so we see that US healthcare costs around 15% of their GDP with little benefit in fundamental measures like life expectancy or infant mortality).

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"rant mode on"

I get a little tired of the public sector being lumped into one boat and all getting it in the neck for its pension rights.

Agreed. Firemen, the police, the armed forces - the sort of jobs society needs doing well, and should recognise a more limited working life than someone based in an office. I guess many of us have been guilty of generalisation when discussing the public sector. Personally I object to the size of pensions being accrued by the civil service with no funding in place to cover the exposure, and the cost of the Local Governement pension scheme which offers benefits far in excess of the private sector.

My scheme the Firemans pension scheme which demands 11.75% contributions which has never been invested but spent by previous goverments. How many people contribute that level of payment towards their pension every month?

I understand a lot of BTL Landlords do...... What age do you receive a pension BTW?

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...myth that we are living in a free market...

Heaven's sake! What is free market if you have to pay up to 40% in tax just to sell you labour! And that's even before you got paid and start paying other taxes.

And it's guaranteed as death!

I am making you a sandwich while you are making me coffee. The chap steps in, bites half of your sandwich and gulps half of my cup for the road.

What effing free market?! :lol:

Edited by refusnik

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