"scotland's Housing Boom 'coming To An End'

[Scarecrow]

BBC Link

In the three months to July 2007, property prices in Glasgow and Aberdeen fell by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively, compared with the previous quarter.

The figures were contained in the latest quarterly housing report published by Lloyds TSB Scotland.

There was a 10% fall in prices in the south east (excluding Edinburgh) and a 2.5% drop in the south west (excluding Glasgow).

Strange that the South East of Scotland should see a fall first.

[expatowner]

BBC Link

Strange that the South East of Scotland should see a fall first.

So?

A couple of scotch farms come off the property highs whilst Edinburgh and Glasgow hike prices YoYoY.

[Scarecrow]

BBC Link

Strange that the South East of Scotland should see a fall first.

What's a Scotch farm?

This report is important in the fact that it will spook people who believe that property values can only go up. With the high interest rates beginning to hit home, this change is sentiment will have a major impact on house prices in the near future. Speaking to colleagues yesterday, there was more than one who have put off becoming FTB til they 'see what happens'.

[marzipan]

What's a Scotch farm?

thats where whisky comes from, it grows on trees in scotland

[stillill]

And is harvested by Tam O'Shanter and carried to the market at Brigadoon on the back of a giant tamed Haggis.

Edited August 15, 2007 by stillill

[Goldfinger]

So?

A couple of scotch farms come off the property highs whilst Edinburgh and Glasgow hike prices YoYoY.

They'll follow soon. Just have a look at how many rabbit hutches executive flats are being built at the moment. HPI in the UK died on Thursday, 9 August.

Edited August 15, 2007 by Goldfinger

[benj]

Strange that the South East of Scotland should see a fall first.

Not at all. The south-east is full of undesirable towns that have had a lot of flashy new-build added over the last few years, which has been marketed like crazy. All the satellite towns of Edinburgh have seen prices sky-rocket because of this, as people priced out of the central Edinburgh market flee towards the suburbs. And now it appears to be dawning on people that in reality, they're not such great places to live after all.

Of course, in Edinburgh prices never go down. Never.

[Goldfinger]

Of course, in Edinburgh prices never go down. Never.

I heard that so many times, too!

[lulu]

I heard that so many times, too!

Yes, and Scotland is immune to any property market crashes so i am told. It is viewed as something that can only ever affect the South East of England.

When it comes, just wait how long before they start to blame the English too (I know, I am English and have lived in Scotland for years - everything is my fault aparently.... )

[Agentimmo]

Of course, in Edinburgh prices never go down. Never.

I was in Auld Reekie about a month ago. There are a lot of grim flats and terraced housing within spitting distance of the Castle that have crazy prices attached to them. Lots of speculation by parents from the South buying for their cherubs starting Uni / BTL tzars who earn c.£20K as builders but still manage to get loans for 3 or more properties / poor chumps who are seduced by the banks and other "dodgier" sources of credit to take out loans that are 4x5x6x their earnings.

All the classic players in the HPI market.

Edinburgh will crash as good as the others, if not more.

[Goldfinger]

I was in Auld Reekie about a month ago. There are a lot of grim flats and terraced housing within spitting distance of the Castle that have crazy prices attached to them. Lots of speculation by parents from the South buying for their cherubs starting Uni / BTL tzars who earn c.£20K as builders but still manage to get loans for 3 or more properties / poor chumps who are seduced by the banks and other "dodgier" sources of credit to take out loans that are 4x5x6x their earnings.

All the classic players in the HPI market.

Edinburgh will crash as good as the others, if not more.

Absolutely. On top of that you have to add a glut of new flats that will hit the market over the next 1-2 years. On top of that, Edinburgh is very dependent on the financial industry and tourism. All doing not so well in a recession.

Edited August 15, 2007 by Goldfinger

[brownbootcuts]

I knew that Aberdeen was slowing but did not realise that prices would drop.

[Leonard Hatred]

Of course, in Edinburgh prices never go down. Never.

Mmm... invest in West Pilton

[Goldfinger]

Mmm... invest in West Pilton

I foresee steep drops in Sighthill, Wester Hailes, Granton, and certain areas of Leith.

[ccc]

Prices are going down already in Edinburgh, people just don't realise it yet. I know someone who bought a 2 bed new build 15 minutes walk from the city centre. Underground parking, lift, en-suite, all the mod cons. Previously bought 4 years ago for 165k. They sold last month for 172k. In real terms that is a drop. And I suspect in the next 6 months these drops will actually fall in nominal terms.

I try telling this to people at work, most think they know it all, some do listen however. The number of times I have heard otherwise intelligent people saying ' There has never been a crash here before , there will never be one ' is amazing.

Before 9/11 no-one had ever flown 2 jets into a building live on TV to kill thousands of people. Didn't stop it happening though.

Most of these people also class themselves as 'homeowners', even though they have a mortgage of 100k + still outstanding. I don't even bother trying to explain to them the obvious mistake in their logic. These people don't WANT to listen to what could happen to their beloved property. And in my opinion this will be why the crash here will be huge.

Average salary in Edinburgh 25k. Average house price 225k. And still most people don't think something will have to give. Delusional.

[lulu]

I foresee steep drops in Sighthill, Wester Hailes, Granton, and certain areas of Leith.

Fountainbridge is a definate, I forget how many shoeboxes luxury apartments they are building on the old brewery site.

When it goes, Polworth/Dalry and Gorgie will not be far behind.....

[Timil]

Tumble weeds blowing through property Market in the Highlands.

Its going to crash badly average wage is Thrupence Ha'penny average house price is heading for 200K.

[Guest Skint Academic]

What's a Scotch farm?

The rest of us call them breweries I think

[dude wheres my house]

Good news again today, i bet this story is buried away in the website.

[feefifofum]

A bit more 'foot and mouth' might help property prices slump too

feeifofum

[billy-g]

Last time around, Edinburgh recovered very quickly after the crash. Well, the good areas did. Other parts, the 'up and comings' as the Estate Agents called them during the boom, went back to being percieved as the sh!t holes they actually were. This time around, who knows?

What is interesting is the amount of HPI thats occured in the strangest of places within commuting distance to Edinburgh. Will those places get mullered if a crash happens? Again, who can tell. Be interesting to see.

[Agentimmo]

Lovely property in West Pilton for £132 fixed price. Pretty sure it's been unsold for months.

Note how they state a burglar alarm is included. Maybe they also supply a shotgun and taser to keep the locals off the small plot of land.

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=240750

[Goldfinger]

What is interesting is the amount of HPI thats occured in the strangest of places within commuting distance to Edinburgh. Will those places get mullered if a crash happens? Again, who can tell. Be interesting to see.

Absolutely! £400,000 for some 4-bedroom hovel somewhere in East Lothian 15min from the train station? -50% within 3 years, if you ask me. Add a higher oil price to it and you'll end up with even less.

[lulu]

Lovely property in West Pilton for £132 fixed price. Pretty sure it's been unsold for months.

Note how they state a burglar alarm is included. Maybe they also supply a shotgun and taser to keep the locals off the small plot of land.

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=240750

But it does have laminate floors.... I am sure it is a bargain really.

Is Pilton not one of the areas that even the taxi drivers refuse to go to after a certain time of night?

[Leonard Hatred]

But it does have laminate floors.... I am sure it is a bargain really.

Is Pilton not one of the areas that even the taxi drivers refuse to go to after a certain time of night?

Well, I arrived back there in a taxi in the early hours of 01/01/2006

Stayed with a couple of Lady Avenger's mates in a big flat overlooking West Pilton park. Knew of its reputation, but we barely saw another soul the whole four days we were there.