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Clear Cut Arguements For Price Crash

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After having a discussion with my Uncle who is firmly fixed in his beliefs that house prices will never fall, I tried posing a few reasons to him as to why, inflation, repossessions, lack of demand etc. Which he claimed are all clutching at straws, I would like to get through to him as he is currently considering buying a buy to let property and would not like to see him in finacial difficulties.

So I pose to you, fellow HPCers, why do you think the HPC will occur, to what extent, and with what evidence?

Cheers

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After having a discussion with my Uncle who is firmly fixed in his beliefs that house prices will never fall, I tried posing a few reasons to him as to why, inflation, repossessions, lack of demand etc. Which he claimed are all clutching at straws, I would like to get through to him as he is currently considering buying a buy to let property and would not like to see him in finacial difficulties.

So I pose to you, fellow HPCers, why do you think the HPC will occur, to what extent, and with what evidence?

Cheers

My arguments are usually based on house price/earnings ratios, economic cycles and what history has shown us.

I personally think it has already started here in Northern Ireland. A girl at work has bought a buy-to-let 3 months ago. I really feel sorry for here, but it was her own decission.

Unfortunately, we are in a change over period regarding the press. Some article are still very bullish and support your Uncles beliefs. However, I see many newspaper stories are now warning of what could happen.

Has there been a large increase in inventory in your area? Many sheeple here are noticing the sheer number of for sale signs popping up in the towns.

Unfortunately, I don't think the general public will become aware of the state of the housing market until this time next year... too late for your Uncle.

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Prices will return to their long run average at some stage but not until triggered by a recession.

We are in an unprecedented 15 year growth period which in my view has at least 5 years to run.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
After having a discussion with my Uncle who is firmly fixed in his beliefs that house prices will never fall, I tried posing a few reasons to him as to why, inflation, repossessions, lack of demand etc. Which he claimed are all clutching at straws, I would like to get through to him as he is currently considering buying a buy to let property and would not like to see him in finacial difficulties.

So I pose to you, fellow HPCers, why do you think the HPC will occur, to what extent, and with what evidence?

Cheers

Let the silly **** learn the hard way. Natural selection.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Prices will return to their long run average at some stage but not until triggered by a recession.

We are in an unprecedented 15 year growth period which in my view has at least 5 years to run.

Using the same nebulous train of thought.

********.

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After having a discussion with my Uncle who is firmly fixed in his beliefs that house prices will never fall, I tried posing a few reasons to him as to why, inflation, repossessions, lack of demand etc. Which he claimed are all clutching at straws, I would like to get through to him as he is currently considering buying a buy to let property and would not like to see him in finacial difficulties.

So I pose to you, fellow HPCers, why do you think the HPC will occur, to what extent, and with what evidence?

Cheers

Shortest clear-cut argument for me is : "Debt and demographics"

Debt evidence is easy to see. e.g.Credit Action monthly reports

Demographics is easy to see. e.g Paul Wallace - "Agequake"

Combining the above in a period of rising interest rates spells HPC.

However, the timing for a crash is anybodies guess, we have to get through the credit-crunch first, y-o-y indexes going negative the BTL panic, then let the lawyers move in.

VMR.

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Clear Cut Arguements For Price Crash

There isnt any for an imminent one is there?

The only thing you can say is that prices are at historical highs as compared average incomes and the debt needed to sustain prices is under strain as many find it harder to pay their mortgages. You could also point out there is a possibility of higher rates of interest and increased credit tightening.

But the fact a number of people cant afford to buy, or even possibly rent, a home doesnt really mean anything as long as there is enough to keep the market rising. The number of people who cant afford to rent has increased but the government is willing to make up the shortfall in benifits of one kind or another. That is why there are so few homless roaming the streets, the policy is everyone will be housed including incoming immigrants. Your uncle has more ammunition than you in this argument, but you could point out it is getting increasingly riskier.

Without a marked slowdown in GDP there cant be any correction to prices as the supply/demand is weighted to upward pressure without it. It would take a recession for the possibility of a "crash".

You could also emphasis the current debt bubble in the UK.

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After having a discussion with my Uncle who is firmly fixed in his beliefs that house prices will never fall, I tried posing a few reasons to him as to why, inflation, repossessions, lack of demand etc. Which he claimed are all clutching at straws, I would like to get through to him as he is currently considering buying a buy to let property and would not like to see him in finacial difficulties.

So I pose to you, fellow HPCers, why do you think the HPC will occur, to what extent, and with what evidence?

Cheers

Just email him the link to this website! Job done.

I personally think it has already started here in Northern Ireland. A girl at work has bought a buy-to-let 3 months ago. I really feel sorry for here, but it was her own decission.

OMG! Where has she bought, out of interest, and do you know how much she paid?

:ph34r:

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Just email him the link to this website! Job done.

OMG! Where has she bought, out of interest, and do you know how much she paid?

:ph34r:

A Semi in Omagh for 197K AFAIK.

I see alot of houses in the Cookstown area either dropping in price or the price they are coming on the market is lower than would have been expected 3 months ago.

Northern Ireland lead the UK market up. Wonder will we lead it down again?

... but lets not hijack this into another Northern Ireland thread :P

Edited by Belfast Boy

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A Semi in Omagh for 197K AFAIK.

I see alot of houses in the Cookstown area either dropping in price or the price they are coming on the market is lower than would have been expected 3 months ago.

Northern Ireland lead the UK market up. Wonder will we lead it down again?

... but lets not hijack this into another Northern Ireland thread :P

NI did not lead, it followed! It arrived at the party last with a 24-pack and began drinking desperately, trying to play catch-up. By midnight, all the big boys had scored all the good looking women and gone home. NI was still slugging away at the Diamond White in the corner.

We were last to go up and will probably be first to go down.

£197K for a semi in Omagh, sweet ****! I wonder what her yield is and how much of the mortgage she is subsidising???

hahahaha

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After having a discussion with my Uncle who is firmly fixed in his beliefs that house prices will never fall, I tried posing a few reasons to him as to why, inflation, repossessions, lack of demand etc. Which he claimed are all clutching at straws, I would like to get through to him as he is currently considering buying a buy to let property and would not like to see him in finacial difficulties.

So I pose to you, fellow HPCers, why do you think the HPC will occur, to what extent, and with what evidence?

Cheers

The fairly feeble responses to your question tell you all you need to know IMO. Your efforts to sway your Uncle round to your sentiments are unwise and self serving. If you disuade him and prices rise he will never trust you again. If prices fall, he will not thank you.

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The fairly feeble responses to your question tell you all you need to know IMO. Your efforts to sway your Uncle round to your sentiments are unwise and self serving. If you disuade him and prices rise he will never trust you again. If prices fall, he will not thank you.

Like I said sheeple won't know what's happening until it is to late. I know for a fact that Northern Ireland inventory is increasing rapidly. FFS all I have to do is drive through any local town and see the amount of for-sale signs. I know that properties that I was looking at buying, after I sold my house, are NOW having their prices reduced. New propertys that are coming on the market are more 'realistically' priced. It is a fact that house prices are coming down in America, Spain and Ireland. ...but what the heck, repeat after me 'UK property prices only go up!','UK property prices only go up!','UK property prices only go up!',

However, I also agree that your Uncle may not thank you either way.

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NI did not lead, it followed! It arrived at the party last with a 24-pack and began drinking desperately, trying to play catch-up. By midnight, all the big boys had scored all the good looking women and gone home. NI was still slugging away at the Diamond White in the corner.

We were last to go up and will probably be first to go down.

:lol::lol::lol:

I bow down to your superior knowledge, tara. I nearly missed the beer drinking contest with the big boys. I didn't get to leave the party with a nice girl. :( However, I did leave the party with enough money to pay for alot of naughty girls :D The party is over, hit the light switch on your way out.

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