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ianbeale

Cpi Poll

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After the ftse rebound today and the credit crunch that has disappeared (now thats magic!) - i think we could all do with a pick me up - lets hope for some decent figures for the highlight of the week - cpi 0930 tuesday- have your stab in the poll for what its worth - 2.4 for me would do nicely

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Higher, lower, higher good game, good game.

It will be lower, because thats want they want it to be.

They being BoE, Gordon and Co.

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I'm going for a fall to 2.2% since the smug gits at the BOE have been even smuggier than usual. I think they know the numbers (unlike the reality) are behaving just as they want.

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if this comes in low at 2.1 or less then we might as well give up -- 6%+ IRs are key to the hpc - i honestly believe it will take a lot more IR to get rid of inflation than they think espescially with china now running at >5%-- global economy and all that

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Interesting that the market expectation is 2.3% and the expectation on this site is 2.6% plus.

For what its worth, you need to remember that July is a big sales month and the discounting in the summer sales was high this year due to the poor summer. However inflationary pressures are higher than normal so the effects may net off meaning that the figure may remain unchanged at 2.4%.

My prediction is 2.4% with a drop to 2.2% in September.

Edited by harris

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Feels like a 2.2, possibly a 2.1. Will "surprise" the markets with an undershoot.

I've got practically nothing to base that on, other than the pretty deep apparent discounts on high street.

2.6 though - seriously?

5.75 may well be the peak.

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em

There seems to be a lot of people believing inflation is falling.

I dont see any changes since my prediction a month ago that the CPI figure will be 2.7% for July. I can not think of anything that's going to help Merv push the rate down. I would predict the CPI figure to go over the 3% mark early into next year if not before as Merv has already used up all his clever tricks.

I still expect an interest hike in either October or November.

It could all get very painful next year.

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em

There seems to be a lot of people believing inflation is falling.

I dont see any changes since my prediction a month ago that the CPI figure will be 2.7% for July. I can not think of anything that's going to help Merv push the rate down. I would predict the CPI figure to go over the 3% mark early into next year if not before as Merv has already used up all his clever tricks.

I still expect an interest hike in either October or November.

It could all get very painful next year.

There is strong evidence to support this

Factory gate prices were even and output price inflation rose a little but input price inflation was much lower than expected so 2.3% for me.

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Here's some figures:

CPI June 2006 = 102.5

CPI July 2006 = 102.5 (same)

CPI June 2007 = 105.0

So YoY figure for June 07 (published July 07) was 105.0 / 102.5 (June 06 index) = 1.0243 (giving 2.4% headline CPI increase).

If tomorrow's index figure is 105.1 (equivalent to YoY increase of 1.2%) then CPI increase will be 2.5%

If it is 105.2 (equivalent to YoY incease of 2.4%) then it will be 2.6%

So I'm saying at least 2.6 tomorrow.

To get 2.3 the index needs to fall from 105.0 to 104.9

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2.3

Meaningless, but lower than the last random set of numbers.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2251596.ece

From Times OnlineAugust 13, 2007
Factory inflation continues to rise
A sharp decline in the cost of raw materials, such as imported metals, fails to stop producers upping prices
Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
Input prices for factories fell last month at their fastest pace since July, the Office for National Statistics said today, but manufacturers are still increasing their prices.
Edited by Realistbear

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That was me, and it proves my point perfectly. They really do manipulate these statistics... of all the months to pull this out of the bag it happens during the middle of a disruptive market event.

No wonder the BoE is sidelining the ONS.

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