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Frank Hovis

Why No Prediction Of Hpc In The Papers?

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I have been looking but there's no mention of it. It's all about a credit squeeze shaking out the debt market and affecting subprime and this is making share prices fall.

They have picked up that the credit squeeze is hitting highly leveraged deals (ABN) and refinancing (Somerfield, Man Utd) but have singulalry failed to pick up on the fact that the most common highly-leveraged investment is residential property so house prices will inevitably be hammered. But as it's not a highly-visible instant market like shares the effects are not yet obvious.

There are quite a few intelligent financial journalists out there. Surely one of them has spotted it? If somebody's seen a good story this weekend please post a link because I am baffled by this.

Meanwhile the BBC, with its arthritic finger on the pulse, publishes some blurb from the Halifax about people paying more to live by the sea. This is under business news ffs. Revoke their charter now :angry:

And to throw in an anecdotal: I've been doing a few interviews recently. A good half of the candidates have mentioned paying the mortagae as a reason for looking for a new job; one even had to pack in studies to get an evening job as well. There is a wasted generation out there whose lives are being ruled by their mortgages.

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because people with massive VIs are still 'hoping' that somehow, all th emagic free money they have been given over the last decade won't simply 'fade away'.

Yours,

Ernest Kingsmill

I expect that from the usual suspects, but certain papers (esp. the Telegraph) usually produce thoughtful intelligent pieces. It's like there's a D-notice on this.

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I have been looking but there's no mention of it. It's all about a credit squeeze shaking out the debt market and affecting subprime and this is making share prices fall.

They have picked up that the credit squeeze is hitting highly leveraged deals (ABN) and refinancing (Somerfield, Man Utd) but have singulalry failed to pick up on the fact that the most common highly-leveraged investment is residential property so house prices will inevitably be hammered. But as it's not a highly-visible instant market like shares the effects are not yet obvious.

There are quite a few intelligent financial journalists out there. Surely one of them has spotted it? If somebody's seen a good story this weekend please post a link because I am baffled by this.

Meanwhile the BBC, with its arthritic finger on the pulse, publishes some blurb from the Halifax about people paying more to live by the sea. This is under business news ffs. Revoke their charter now :angry:

And to throw in an anecdotal: I've been doing a few interviews recently. A good half of the candidates have mentioned paying the mortagae as a reason for looking for a new job; one even had to pack in studies to get an evening job as well. There is a wasted generation out there whose lives are being ruled by their mortgages.

There was very coverage of the Crash during the crash last time. The press kept saying 20% increase next year for a few years but all the time the prices were dropping. It was very much word of mouth, from pension advisors, work mates, friends who have their houses on the market for years, a constant flow of reposessions, EAs closing down, jobs related to the property industry being lost. By the time it has reached the papers it has happened. Also a good indicator is when developers start offering you endless add-ons and 1st year free, cheap mortagge you name it, it has started.

Edited by joey

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Possibly because, given that the housing market is to a large extent about consumer confidence, the papers don't want to predict a HPC for fear of being accused of partly causing it. And of course there are far more newspaper buyers out there who don't want a HPC to happen than those who do.

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How could there possibly be a HPC? THe credit crunch and sub-prime is something that only affects America. Only American banks were stupid enough to lend to people who could never hope to repay.

Well, thats what todays papers would have you believe. :ph34r:

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Couldn't agree more - seems really odd doesnt it. Here we are with a financial crisis engendered by a massive housing bubble in the US - this much is acknowledged but no one seems to be joining the dots to say - hold on a minute - we also have a massive housing bubble in the UK only much much worse - Uk average property costs double the US average property and we have greater levels of debt to boot. We also have a great deal of subprime lending , according to some in the know greater than the US. Yet no one seems willing to draw the, to my mind, obvious conclusion i.e the housing market is deep in the crapola and the credit squeeze will inevitably bring it down - we will follow the US. Yet if housing is mentioned at all it is always in terms of a slowing in inflation rather than falls like we are seeing in the US, Ireland , Spain etc

I'm assuming a D notice is an instruction from the governement not to mention something - because of national security ?

I suspect it is to do with the journos own vested interests - most will by OOs I guess.

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I have been looking but there's no mention of it.

because, apart from some journalists at the FT and Economist who STRented in 2003 the other journalists havn't shifted their pads yet. Once they've sold up in 2 months they will open the floodgates.

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I'm assuming a D notice is an instruction from the governement not to mention something - because of national security ?

It's a voluntary agreement between the Government and the media whereby the former can ask the latter not to publish certain information or cover debates on the grounds of protecting national security (D-Notice Website). One would hope that if the Government did abuse the system in order to try and suppress the full extent of a HPC or any other story which is clearly not defence-related, the press would give them short shrift. But there are now so many intermeshing VIs kicking around between them that one can never be completely sure.

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because, apart from some journalists at the FT and Economist who STRented in 2003 the other journalists havn't shifted their pads yet. Once they've sold up in 2 months they will open the floodgates.

I think their scared like it's bad 'ju-ju' or something. If they say it, it just might happen! :ph34r:

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If you look a few months ago at the papers the would say crash boom crash boom, however now when the fan hits the S*** they are really worried i and i have a gut feel that the crash in property is underway bet you ll see the media sell of there housing stock this week. if it doesnt blow up this week its surely will at the end of the year.

Some thing this big should have been covered yet nothing mums the word, that why newspapers arent a source of information anymore.

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Although this doesn't affect the national press so much, one reason why local rags are still relentlessly trying to talk up HPI is that a large proportion of their income is from EAs' adverts (especially the freesheets). There have been 3-4 stories a month in the York Evening Press for as long as I can remember on the state of the local housing market, quoting local EAs at length (usually the ones who have several full page ads in the Thursday property supplement) opining that HPs can only go up. There is never, ever any balancing quote from a dissenting voice.

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Today on page 5 of the business section, the Sunday Times has a great headline: "Panic on Wall Street". Maybe I missed something, but didn't the FTSE fall more than the Dow? Why are our press only interested in economies of other countries!

PS, David Smith is in fine form peddling the usual everything is fine stories.

Edited by mrphil

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Sentiment - it's all about sentiment. And knowing what their readers want to read! However, on Friday the BBC mentioned 'sub-prime', 'crash' and 'leading to recession' all in the same paragraph: the first time I'd heard it. Maybe eyes are opening now...

TD

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Thrussell put his finger on it a while back ('92).

(the forum censored word is probably a colloquialism for bovine excrement)

On this hollow earth

In this empty space

We all dance to a tune

Played by the master race

Those faceless moneymen

Yeah, you're probably one of them

Hear their endless muzak tune

That plays on and on

And when the ******** happy choir

Greets another grim day

When the angels swim to our aid

Well, here comes another cliché

While we hide from our barren end

The advertisers pretend

That the world is as they say

Well, here comes another cliché

On this hollow earth

In this empty space

We all dance to a tune

Played by the master race

Those faceless moneymen

Yeah, you're probably one of them

Hear their endless muzak tune

That plays on and on

And when the ******** happy choir

Greets another grim day

When the angels swim to our aid

Well, here comes another cliché

While we hide from our barren end

The advertisers pretend

That the world is as they say

Well, here comes another cliché

And when the ******** happy choir

Greets another grim day

When the angels swim to our aid

Well, here comes another cliché

While we hide from our barren end

The advertisers pretend

That the world is as they say

Well, here comes another cliché

... grim and unsettling, but that's why you're pissing away your last in a forum called House Price Crash late on a Sunday evening, no?

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It is quite simple - any reporter has a requirement to stick to facts - journalists are not supposed to speculate about thing that may or may not happen - even though they do. You and I may think a crash is imminent - I think it is already happening.

Also why fuel a crash - make it worse through speculating about the out comes of present events that will affect virtually everyone detrimentally? You could be accused of irresponsible reporting.

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It is quite simple - any reporter has a requirement to stick to facts - journalists are not supposed to speculate about thing that may or may not happen - even though they do.

Journalists are paid to do exactly that - speculate.

Reporters are paid to copy-paste news releases from PR Newswire. Or mouth them in pieces to camera.

Stereotypes, sure. But the thing about stereotypes...

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Get some cash out of the wall while you still can.

I remember the great sugar scam of the 1970s. Some bright spark started a rumour there was a serious shortage of sugar, this started panic buying of which we have not seen the like of since. Supermarkets shelves were cleared in record time while the Government and Suppliers insisted there was no shortage. As articulated lorries arrived from Ireland and Continental Europe shown on TV News Bulletins, the panic got worse as sugar was being sold off the back of these lorries at treble the price. Suffice to say it only lasted a couple of weeks and the situation finally got back to normal. I would guess the person who started the rumour ended up a very rich person. :D

Cue ??????????

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Journalists are paid to do exactly that - speculate.

Reporters are paid to copy-paste news releases from PR Newswire. Or mouth them in pieces to camera.

Stereotypes, sure. But the thing about stereotypes...

Yes I have worked with a few famous journalists - but this is not what they are supposed to do - they are supposed to be objective.

I do not believe for one minute there is a conspiracy theory about underreporting the financial crisis. It is just most common or garden Journalist do not understand the story and they just regurgitate what they are told. Most eveyone else falls asleep during the Business news sections ( if it is not about Madelene McCanns or the Beckhams then it is not important).

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
but would you wanna take the risk of being caught with your pants down?

That`s one thing I`ve never been caught with. If I had listened to all the doom mongers the past 40 years I would have nothing today.

There are VIs and there are VIs, nobody gives good advice for nothing without self interest, think about it, believe me they fetch tears to my eyes. ;)

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Depends on each persons situation really, i benefit more from a crash than a boom.

ive been seeing companies Diversify/ cut staff normally that equates to trouble times ahead, trying to save just before a down turn.

The way it may pan out fund managers et al may need to sell asset below market price no one will buy, why because people will be withdrawing from accounts, some will go bankrupt.

If your counter argument is ECB et al have injected money, and clients are taking it out its even a bigger mess and no bank is reducing price on lending. fund managers and any other person link to this financial mess will try and off load their huge property portfolio as the only source of income is from the public thus crash the housing market.

Its the quickest on the market to get rid of propert that will win thus transfering the situation back to the banks.

this is how i think it may go, who is the end loser the public it always been that way.

Edited by crash2006

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Depends on each persons situation really, i benefit more from a crash than a boom.

ive been seeing companies Diversify/ cut staff normally that equates to trouble times ahead, trying to save just before a down turn.

The way it may pan out fund managers et al may need to sell asset below market price no one will buy, why because people will be withdrawing from accounts, some will go bankrupt.

If your counter argument is ECB et al have injected money, and clients are taking it out its even a bigger mess and no bank is reducing price on lending. fund managers and any other person link to this financial mess will try and off load their huge property portfolio as the only source of income is from the public thus crash the housing market.

Its the quickest on the market to get rid of propert that will win thus transfering the situation back to the banks.

this is how i think it may go,who is the end loser the public it always been that way

As the link says above its blocked the only source is the public to get things moving again.

Edited by crash2006

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I have been looking but there's no mention of it. It's all about a credit squeeze shaking out the debt market and affecting subprime and this is making share prices fall.

They have picked up that the credit squeeze is hitting highly leveraged deals (ABN) and refinancing (Somerfield, Man Utd) but have singulalry failed to pick up on the fact that the most common highly-leveraged investment is residential property so house prices will inevitably be hammered. But as it's not a highly-visible instant market like shares the effects are not yet obvious.

There are quite a few intelligent financial journalists out there. Surely one of them has spotted it? If somebody's seen a good story this weekend please post a link because I am baffled by this.

Meanwhile the BBC, with its arthritic finger on the pulse, publishes some blurb from the Halifax about people paying more to live by the sea. This is under business news ffs. Revoke their charter now :angry:

And to throw in an anecdotal: I've been doing a few interviews recently. A good half of the candidates have mentioned paying the mortagae as a reason for looking for a new job; one even had to pack in studies to get an evening job as well. There is a wasted generation out there whose lives are being ruled by their mortgages.

I agree with you Frank --- something SMELLS real bad...... This guy - http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press - in the US is hot on bad journalism in general. Fact is - don't know about anyone else here --- but I've long felt that the Media in general have quite deliberately let the HPI run - and can only conclude that they have significant Vested Intererest in this --- e.g. Own property and/or BTL investments - so don't wich to upset the apple-cart at all......... Pretty sad - but there you have it! There is potentially a GREAT and HUGE story about Dodgy Loans/Mortgages etc etc. HUGE.

Edited by eric pebble

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