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Peak Oil Put Back (again)

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looks like the peak oil crowd will have to wait a little longer now :lol:

18 Bln Barrels of Oil Discovered at Iraq's West Qurna-2

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani reported Thursday that reserves at the West Qurna-2 oil field are now 24 billion barrels, four times as much as were expected, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. The oil field is in dispute between Russian oil giant LUKOIL and the Iraqi government.

http://www.kommersant.com/p-11215/r_540/LU...Oil_Iraq_Qurna/

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looks like the peak oil crowd will have to wait a little longer now :lol:

http://www.kommersant.com/p-11215/r_540/LU...Oil_Iraq_Qurna/

The trouble with Peak Oil is that they do not take into account the upstream business at all. As far as PO are concerned the whole world has been explored and all reserves are known and accounted for! For a pragmatic view of PO one should read Battle for Barrels. It's a healthy counter to the peak oil crowd.

Mark.

Edited by Soul Reaver

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looks like the peak oil crowd will have to wait a little longer now :lol:

http://www.kommersant.com/p-11215/r_540/LU...Oil_Iraq_Qurna/

How many barrels of oil does the world consume a day ?

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_...oil-consumption

Check out the figures and divide it into your 18 billion barrels. I think you will find that they will be burned up soon enough

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How many barrels of oil does the world consume a day ?

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_...oil-consumption

Check out the figures and divide it into your 18 billion barrels. I think you will find that they will be burned up soon enough

thinking of it like that is irrelevant, what is important is how much they can pull out of this find per day and for how long. Doesn’t matter if they find an infinite amount if they cant bring it out of the ground.

so importantly, it might be that this oil field can provide 500k barrels a day, and if 9 of those 19bil are accessible. It means that field will be around for 50 odd years.

it also goes to show that there are still big fields to be discovered.

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thinking of it like that is irrelevant, what is important is how much they can pull out of this find per day and for how long. Doesn’t matter if they find an infinite amount if they cant bring it out of the ground.

so importantly, it might be that this oil field can provide 500k barrels a day, and if 9 of those 19bil are accessible. It means that field will be around for 50 odd years.

it also goes to show that there are still big fields to be discovered.

The problem is that discoveries are not keeping pace with consumption.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2007/0731.html

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it's not discovery it's refinery capacity

as for how much we use per day, yeah, it's a lot and its growing and has been for decades but there's still plenty of oil and no crisis, what we need is more refinery capacity

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The problem is that discoveries are not keeping pace with consumption.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2007/0731.html

Ah so we have passed peak already then and demand has outstripped supply? I dont see that myself yet. The reason is because hardly anyone is exploring at the moment! The number of discovery wells drilled is at an all time low for many many reasons.

Mark.

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Lack of new refining capacity hurts oil supplies

By Kevin Morrison

Published: March 11 2005 22:08 | Last updated: March 11 2005 22:08

Oil companies' failure to add new refining capacity to keep up with global demand for petroleum products is exacerbating already tight oil supply conditions and fuelling the rise in oil prices to nominal record highs.

Stricter environmental laws in the US, Europe, China and India are compounding the lack of excess refinery capacity as companies invest in new equipment to reduce sulphur content at the expense of adding new capacity.

Last year's increase of 2.65m barrels a day in global oil demand overshadowed the modest rise of 700,000 b/d in global refining capacity in 2004. This led to refiners enjoying their best margins in decades as gasoline and heating oil prices reached record highs.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/bf32d5b2-9277-11d9...000e2511c8.html

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it's not discovery it's refinery capacity

as for how much we use per day, yeah, it's a lot and its growing and has been for decades but there's still plenty of oil and no crisis, what we need is more refinery capacity

Conumption growing, discovery shrinking. The PO peeps are not saying there is no more they are saying that there is a peak of supply when demand is taken into account.

Saying a new field discovery destroys the PO theory is like saying house prices will always go up because they have this month. I think we're all pretty familiar with that line of reasoning ;)

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It is not just about the quantity of oil, but also the quality of the oil. We have been consuming the best quality, 'light' oils for years because these are the easiest to extract and refine. Much of the remaining oil is heavier, 'sour' oil, difficult to extract and refine. It also tends to give a much poorer energy return than the lighter grades.

Whether we are or are not at Peak will only be confirmed in about five to ten years time. If we wait that long and find that we are (or rather were) at peak in 2006/07 it will probably be too late to respond.

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Ah so we have passed peak already then and demand has outstripped supply? I dont see that myself yet. The reason is because hardly anyone is exploring at the moment! The number of discovery wells drilled is at an all time low for many many reasons.

Mark.

Who knows ? I do not and nor do you.

All I know is that an estimated 18 billion barrels of recoverable oil discovered in Iraq would only cover current world oil consumption of approximately 80 million barrels a day for about 7-8 months.

As for the number of 'discovery' wells they by their very nature have to find oil or gas. The dusters do not count.

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looks like the peak oil crowd will have to wait a little longer now :lol:

http://www.kommersant.com/p-11215/r_540/LU...Oil_Iraq_Qurna/

I dont believe a word of it.

Its an entirely political pitch to get the Americans to stay.

There is no way that 50 years of oil exploration somehow overlooked 18 Billion barrels.

Its a fantasy like the big Mexican and Chinese finds of late.

Even Ireland is pitching 'huge' new gas and oil fields that have been overlooked for 50 odd years.

Its all nonsense.

it also goes to show that there are still big fields to be discovered.

There is fk all new oil to be discovered that can be extracted and brought to market at less than $100-150 pb

There may be 'loads of oil' lying round, but its not undiscovered and its extremely expensive to get at.

Why would the Russians be planting flags under the North Pole if there were billions of barrrels of oil just lying round?

Lack of new refining capacity hurts oil supplies

By Kevin Morrison

Published: March 11 2005 22:08 | Last updated: March 11 2005 22:08

Oil companies' failure to add new refining capacity to keep up with global demand for petroleum products is exacerbating already tight oil supply conditions and fuelling the rise in oil prices to nominal record highs.

Stricter environmental laws in the US, Europe, China and India are compounding the lack of excess refinery capacity as companies invest in new equipment to reduce sulphur content at the expense of adding new capacity.

Last year's increase of 2.65m barrels a day in global oil demand overshadowed the modest rise of 700,000 b/d in global refining capacity in 2004. This led to refiners enjoying their best margins in decades as gasoline and heating oil prices reached record highs.

If the uber-capitalists of Big Oil are not building new refineries you have to ask 'why'?

Either there is no downstream demand (customers) or their is no upstream supply.

Or do you think that the economists, geologists, lawyers and accountants in some of the biggest companies in the world made a mistake?

The 'overlooked' massive supplies and are now crying into their fax machines?

Dont be naive - there isnt enough oil there - otherwise these people would be all over it.

Edited by needle

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Even if this was immediately developed with the best technology and pumped at maximum rate, it would add no more than 3 million barrels per day to world production. And that's the absolute best case.

Let's see... 85 million barrels per day demand rising at around 2 mmbpd per year. This buys us 18 months at the absolute most. And the field wouldn't possibly maintain that production rate for more than a few years at most before deline set in.

Rather than delaying peak oil, the reality that it has taken so long to find this and that 18 billion barrels does so little to help is confirmation of just how serious the situation is.

We don't need another 18 billion barrels that takes years to find and even longer to develop. We need an entire new Saudi Arabia, Russia or USA oil industry in less than that time if supply is going to keep up.

As for the rate of drilling, it's outright nonsense to say it's down. Practically every rig in the world is running flat out and the cost of hiring one has gone through the roof. That they aren't finding much is the very situation that has many concerned about oil.

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There may be 'loads of oil' lying round, but its not undiscovered and its extremely expensive to get at.

Why would the Russians be planting flags under the North Pole if there were billions of barrrels of oil just lying round?

If the uber-capitalists of Big Oil are not building new refineries you have to ask 'why'?

Does Russia now want to hurry up global warming?

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Does anyone else remember ( those now aged 45+) watching a BBC "Horizon" programme in the 1970's, during, or just after the first oil crisis?

I know time plays tricks with the old memory but I seem to remember the were predicting widespead oil shortages by 1990, and it "running out" by 2010. Worried me when I was looking forward to learning to drive.

I wonder what happened to the experts who made those predictions?

Oh yes, another question---- Did they ever find any oil around the Falkland Isles? Many people said at the time it was the only reason for fighting over them!

Regards

Rob.

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Does anyone else remember ( those now aged 45+) watching a BBC "Horizon" programme in the 1970's, during, or just after the first oil crisis?

I know time plays tricks with the old memory but I seem to remember the were predicting widespead oil shortages by 1990, and it "running out" by 2010. Worried me when I was looking forward to learning to drive.

I wonder what happened to the experts who made those predictions?

Oh yes, another question---- Did they ever find any oil around the Falkland Isles? Many people said at the time it was the only reason for fighting over them!

Regards

Rob.

The BBC may have said it, but those with real knowledge certainly weren't.

The message has been consistent for quite some time now. Discovery is going down and is below the rate of (rising) production. And no amount of increased drilling was able to arrest the decline in the US or other regions that have already peaked.

Most models have long put the date of peak at sometime around the year 2000. In the context of the overall history of civilisation, 20 years either side of that will have been a fairly decent prediction. Peak for conventional oil is 2005 thus far...

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Does anyone else remember ( those now aged 45+) watching a BBC "Horizon" programme in the 1970's, during, or just after the first oil crisis?

I know time plays tricks with the old memory but I seem to remember the were predicting widespead oil shortages by 1990, and it "running out" by 2010. Worried me when I was looking forward to learning to drive.

I wonder what happened to the experts who made those predictions?

I recall the prediction in the late 70s being '30 years of supply'. Which if we have peaked/will peak in the next few years, might not have been too far off the mark ... a representative from BP came to our school to talk about careers, and I asked him 'what future has a career with BP got beyond 30 years' and he replied that BP would be getting into other forms of energy. Which they have, to some extent.

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it's not discovery it's refinery capacity

as for how much we use per day, yeah, it's a lot and its growing and has been for decades but there's still plenty of oil and no crisis, what we need is more refinery capacity

Peak oil discovery was in the 1960's and it is an absolute fact that every year we are using more than we are discovering, just like many on this site get beaten around the head with a stick when they mention HPC to friends and family (who find HPC inconvenient to belive) the vast majority of the population also find the idea of ever more restricted cheap energy inconvenient to belive, it will come and it will bite and no amount of fancy financial engerneering can change it. Its about time the governments around the world made an issue of it and put some real effort into rearanging our lives without mass car transport and concentrating on new sourses of electicity generation, its probably too late for full mittigation measures however the later we all leave it the worse the consiquence, a bit like the current status of HPI, if they had killed that 7 years ago we would not be in for whats comming to us in the near future. (or should I say they with big mortgages etc)

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