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Realistbear

Halifax Warn That Its All Slowing Down-4 Months In A Row

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http://www.themovechannel.com/News/2007/August/8a.asp

Wednesday, August 08, 2007
UK house prices rose a modest 0.7% in July, confirming that house price inflation is slowing, according to Halifax...
House prices increased by
1.3% between April and July
, according to Halifax’s monthly House Price Index. This was the smallest three monthly rise – a good indicator of the underlying trend – since August 2006. The three monthly growth rate has fallen sharply in recent months, dropping from a high of 4.5% in March.
Martin Ellis, Chief Economist at Halifax, commented: "House prices increased by 0.7 per cent in July. This is the
fourth consecutive month that house prices have risen by less than 1.0 per cent
, confirming that house price inflation is slowing.”

For the Halifax--extremely bearish. That they even admit that HPI is "slowing" is a big step for them. Pity they didn't refer to the most recent LR report and the 5 regions that are not just seeing slowing but absolute falls! At least no mention of that ridculous piece from the housing association that HPI would break all world records and soar another 40% by 2012. It was strange to see so many VIs jump on that report and quote it as if it was a fact.

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Guest wrongmove
For the Halifax--extremely bearish.

Reads quite neitherish to me ;)

The YoY figure is still rising, so Q2 last year must have been even weaker.

There are some big MoM figs dropping out of the YoY over the next 6 months, so I would expect the YoY fig to be downhill from here.

But you really shouldn't read too much into these VI reports, RB. The lenders don't want higher IRs, so they have underestimated HPI in their forecasts for years now.

A slow down is what almost everyone in that industry wants.

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Err...didn't we have this last week RB?

I seem to recall posting something like '0.7% x 12 = 8.4%' = No HPC.

You've been listening to the VI's too long and have fallen into their spinning ways.

Patience, no need to make it up.

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Just for clarity.

House prices are still going up, yes? <_<

Depends what you read. If you are a fan of the LR Index they are going down in 5 of the 10 regions. Flat in 2 and just going up in the remaining 3. Overall: down.

If you are a fan of the Halifax you could say that the de-acceleration trend is powerful enough to drag the market into the same negative figures reported by the LR next quarter.

But for now it is probably safe to say only half the regions in the UK are falling. However, I think it is far worse than the LR indicate as they like to use "like for like" sales and forget to include the cost of improvements when quoting same property resales.

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Err...didn't we have this last week RB?

I seem to recall posting something like '0.7% x 12 = 8.4%' = No HPC.

You've been listening to the VI's too long and have fallen into their spinning ways.

Patience, no need to make it up.

Example:

0.7, 0.3, 0.0, -0.3, -0.7, -0.9....... = HPC

It starts slowly in the beginning. The rises get smaller and smaller. Then, before you know it, its headed in the other direction. The falls start off slowly. They get bigger and bigger as the crash progresses. Its the anatomy of a crash really. As well known property analyst Fernando Cortez once said : "Why eez eet so slow in zee begeening?"

Its all in the trend. I don't think Halifax is spinning the data quoted as to admit to a slowdown is against their interests. My guess is that the data is accurate in so far as it reflects their usual spin.

BTW, I didn't write the article it was something the Movechannel "made up." <_<

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Wales - christ what a reversal...9.0% up annual but that includes a 2.8% fall in last quarter

must just be a data smoothing error thingummyjig

edit...no i've got that all wrong haven't I - it's a 2.8% fall compared to the prices for the same quarter last year........still what does it mean I don't know but the bloke down the road from me who has had his house on the market for 2 years at 325k has just dropped it to 299k

Edited by WSG

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Thanks Jason. Looks like the Halifax are admitting to somewhat of a drop for my area:

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp

Quarterly Change (Q2 2007 on Q1 2007) -1.1%

IMO, -1.1% is completely skewed due to fewer, more expensive, properties selling. Most of the market around here is depressed and I know people who have been redcuing there prices by a considerable amount more than 1 or 2% to try to find a willing buyer.

d23 will not like the figure though as he likes to post positive HPI for my region! <_<

Edited by Realistbear

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...I don't know but the bloke down the road from me who has had his house on the market for 2 years at 325k has just dropped it to 299k

clearly a crash in the making, there is no way the price could have been wrong to start with, what with the scientific method of pricing houses the EAs have ;)

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Example:

0.7, 0.3, 0.0, -0.3, -0.7, -0.9....... = HPC

It starts slowly in the beginning. The rises get smaller and smaller. Then, before you know it, its headed in the other direction. The falls start off slowly. They get bigger and bigger as the crash progresses. Its the anatomy of a crash really. As well known property analyst Fernando Cortez once said : "Why eez eet so slow in zee begeening?"

Its all in the trend. I don't think Halifax is spinning the data quoted as to admit to a slowdown is against their interests. My guess is that the data is accurate in so far as it reflects their usual spin.

BTW, I didn't write the article it was something the Movechannel "made up." <_<

RB, I'm a fan - honest.

But if as a quarter they went up only 1.3% and the last month of the quarter is 0.7%, that means the other two months had a combined 0.6%. So if we're talking trends based on that quarter in isolation then I'm afraid next month should be 1%+!

I'm a bear but I'd like to stick to the facts as it doesn't help convince anyone that what they see on here is real if people enter the same spinning games as the VIs.

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Guest d23
Depends what you read. If you are a fan of the LR Index they are going down in 5 of the 10 regions. Flat in 2 and just going up in the remaining 3. Overall: down.

If you are a fan of the Halifax you could say that the de-acceleration trend is powerful enough to drag the market into the same negative figures reported by the LR next quarter.

altho if you're a fan of the FT index (the most reliable of indicators according to RB)

FT index shows house price revival continues

by Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: June 9 2006 09:40 | Last updated: June 9 2006 09:40

House price inflation continued to pick-up last month, taking the annual rate to 5.4 per cent from 4.5 per cent in April, according to the Financial Times house price index.

The figures do not show a slowdown in the monthly rise in house prices with a 0.5 per cent increase in May, exactly the same as the average monthly increase to date in 2006.

this coupled with the 'unsexed up' LR figures (RB's favourite) showing strong QoQ growth and mortgage approvals (the second best indicator apparently) still going strong then it appears to me we are experiencing the last few (4 or 5?) months of slowing HPI before a brief period of 'stagnation' followed by a correction starting sometime in the middle / end of next year.

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this coupled with the 'unsexed up' LR figures (RB's favourite) showing strong QoQ growth and mortgage approvals (the second best indicator apparently) still going strong then it appears to me we are experiencing the last few (4 or 5?) months of slowing HPI before a brief period of 'stagnation' followed by a correction starting sometime in the middle / end of next year.

Have I missed something or were you meaning to show 2006's stats?

Edited by Smell the w

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RB, I'm a fan - honest.

But if as a quarter they went up only 1.3% and the last month of the quarter is 0.7%, that means the other two months had a combined 0.6%. So if we're talking trends based on that quarter in isolation then I'm afraid next month should be 1%+!

I'm a bear but I'd like to stick to the facts as it doesn't help convince anyone that what they see on here is real if people enter the same spinning games as the VIs.

Some would say the QoQ is more relaible than MoM as it demonstrates a slightly longer trend. Halifax are saying 4 months of slowing which is a trend downward anyway you cut (spin) it.

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altho if you're a fan of the FT index (the most reliable of indicators according to RB)

this coupled with the 'unsexed up' LR figures (RB's favourite) showing strong QoQ growth and mortgage approvals (the second best indicator apparently) still going strong then it appears to me we are experiencing the last few (4 or 5?) months of slowing HPI before a brief period of 'stagnation' followed by a correction starting sometime in the middle / end of next year.

So its the end of 2008 now? IIRC you were calling it for the beginning of 2008. Is this changing with some kind of wind you see out there?

The latest LR Index shows 5 out of 10 regions negative--not just slowing. The latest quarterly Halifax report shows my area DOWN 1.1%--not just slowing but falling. IMO, these reports are significant as they both demonstrate that HPI has gone into reverse and is headed downwards in many regions. I think you are going to have to face reality that house prices are coming down and that you have lost the battle against the bears. <_<

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I don;t know if anyone's noticed but three regions fell in Q2 !!!!!!!!! :lol:

Has anyone else noticed how it's sweeping in from the West? Would make sense as it's gone US-->Ireland...London some time around Xmas? ;)

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Has anyone else noticed how it's sweeping in from the West? Would make sense as it's gone US-->Ireland...London some time around Xmas? ;)

Yes - it really is travelling like a pandemic.

Like that film with Dustin Hoffman - oh what is it... Breakout is it? The one with the monkey?

Imagine helicopters with Phil and Kirsty in NBC suits (Nuclear, Bio, Chem) shouting "Go back into your homes (sorry 'properdees') and lie under a duvet"

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