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Realistbear

Great Crash I I Has Hit N Ireland

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http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/homefind...icle2844181.ece

Price of houses dropping
Watch this shocking story on Belfast Telegraph TV
7% dip after summer slump
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
By Helen Carson
Northern Ireland house prices have hit a summer slump after months of breaking new records.
Industry sources have told the Belfast Telegraph that those who bought a house four months ago could have lost money in the current market, sparking fears of negative equity. And one Ulster estate agent claimed that another interest rate rise could hammer house price growth down to nothing later this year.
A combination of the recent overheated market, rising interest rates, more new houses being released and a seasonal lull have been blamed for house prices falling by up to
7% in some cases
.

Looks like Great Crash II has taken a slight detour northward from Eire befopre it makes a full landfall here? 7% down is a BIG and exciting start to the crash.

Edited by Realistbear

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house prices falling by up to 7% in some cases.

Down by up to 7% following a rise of 40% in the previous 12 months.

Is there something newsworthy here?

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Down by up to 7% following a rise of 40% in the previous 12 months.

Is there something newsworthy here?

Well, let's look at this way. If Mr. & Mrs. Hilary Smythe Ponce-Fergit bought a nice semi near the Shanklin Estate for 350k in June and find that their house is now worth only 325k your would not be joining in too many after dinner conversations about how much your house has gone up in the last week.

Or, put another way, 7% down could be the start of a very long crash to the bottom. Just think how the Ponce-Fergits might be feeling. Paranoia? Regrets over buying at the top of the market?

IWBSBIIWT

Edited by Realistbear

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I think NI contagion from the ROI was generally predicted here, based on the Irish having used Euro mortgages on their main residences in the South to BTL like mad in the North. (With the added bonus of MIRAS which the NIers don't get anymore.)

And yes it is significant. House purchases are generally highly geared (a 100% mortgage is effectively infinite gearing!) so gains are magnified on the way up and the loses are magnified on the way down. This polarises sentiment and means the herd is either rushing in or rushing out.

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Well, let's look at this way. If Mr. & Mrs. Hilary Smythe Ponce-Fergit bought a nice semi near the Shanklin Estate for 350k in June and find that their house is now worth only 325k your would not be joining in too many after dinner conversations about how much your house has gone up in the last week.

Or, put another way, 7% down could be the start of a very long crash to the bottom. Just think how the Ponce-Fergits might be feeling. Paranoia? Regrets over buying at the top of the market?

IWBSBIIWT

:lol:

How I would love to be a fly on the wall at dinner parties attended by recent NI BTLers in the next few weeks!

Agree with Nationalist about the herd mentality also.

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Down by up to 7% following a rise of 40% in the previous 12 months.

Is there something newsworthy here?

There is, we have seen speculative house price gains now for 8 years.

~However we were seing drops in 2005 before interest rates were dropped in response *(and against Mervyn King's wishes)

However, the press would report that house prices were up on a year before, which they were.

If you measure increases on a monthly basis then decresses can also be measured against a monthly basis.

Its where it will start

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