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Has Gordon Released The 4 Horsemen Of The Apocalypse?

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http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/08/gordo...orsemen-of.html

Saturday, August 04, 2007
Gordon Brown & the Four Horsemen of the Apolcalypse
Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the four horsemen of the apocaplyse are out to get him. In his first six weeks in power he has experienced an act of war, floods and now pestilence in the form of an outbreak of foot and mouth. He must be worried about an imminent outbreak of famine.

The shaking of the world's credit markets and the imminent collapse of all the housing markets that relied on them may well be the 4th shoe to drop on Gordon. We are certainly seeing the poisons that have been lurking in the mud begin to hatch out in the form of rising reposessions, personal bankruptcies and the start of MoM price declines in 4 regions accross the UK. The SM wobbles are a clear indication that confidence in the HPI miracle is evaporating and that there is far worse to come as Bear Stearns indicated on Friday triggering an almost 300 point drop in the DOW (which may affect the FTSE Monday :o )

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Guest wrongmove

Next paragraph of Iain Dale's (who?) blog:

"But in some ways, these terrible occurences have helped him make his mark as Prime Minister. Even his opponents credit him with handling each of these crises well from a publicity viewpoint, even if the action has sometimes been lacking . He has now had three major opportunities to display his crisis management abilities, something the leader of the opposition rarely has the chance to do."

Relist, are you suggesting GB has caused the floods and foot and mouth? If so, how, and what did he hope to gain?

:unsure::huh::rolleyes:

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http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/08/gordo...orsemen-of.html
Saturday, August 04, 2007
Gordon Brown & the Four Horsemen of the Apolcalypse
Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the four horsemen of the apocaplyse are out to get him. In his first six weeks in power he has experienced an act of war, floods and now pestilence in the form of an outbreak of foot and mouth. He must be worried about an imminent outbreak of famine.

The shaking of the world's credit markets and the imminent collapse of all the housing markets that relied on them may well be the 4th shoe to drop on Gordon. We are certainly seeing the poisons that have been lurking in the mud begin to hatch out in the form of rising reposessions, personal bankruptcies and the start of MoM price declines in 4 regions accross the UK. The SM wobbles are a clear indication that confidence in the HPI miracle is evaporating and that there is far worse to come as Bear Stearns indicated on Friday triggering an almost 300 point drop in the DOW (which may affect the FTSE Monday :o )

I remembered playing old text based adventure games at school, and in one of those there was poison in the mud in a bog.

It wasn't real of course, just the computer selecting phrases according to the context of the game.

Reading through RB's post I thought that it wouldn't be too difficult to write a bit of software that scrapes websites looking for news relating to property, then quotes a small extract.

Follow this up with key phrases, these could be selected and re-arranged according to the content, and hey presto, something that could emulate human behaviour.

Then I wondered, maybe you are the software?

This is getting too spooky for me, we're entering the world of "The Matrix" here, so maybe one of the computer experts on this site could comment?

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I remembered playing old text based adventure games at school, and in one of those there was poison in the mud in a bog.

It wasn't real of course, just the computer selecting phrases according to the context of the game.

Reading through RB's post I thought that it wouldn't be too difficult to write a bit of software that scrapes websites looking for news relating to property, then quotes a small extract.

Follow this up with key phrases, these could be selected and re-arranged according to the content, and hey presto, something that could emulate human behaviour.

Then I wondered, maybe you are the software?

This is getting too spooky for me, we're entering the world of "The Matrix" here, so maybe one of the computer experts on this site could comment?

If RB was software I think he would have been ditched at Y2K :lol:

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Guest wrongmove
If RB was software I think he would have been ditched at Y2K :lol:

He certainly fails the Turing test :P

But back on topic. I think that, if anything, the public will not blame GB directly for "acts of God", and if he handles the situation well, he will come up smelling of roses.

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I remembered playing old text based adventure games at school, and in one of those there was poison in the mud in a bog.

It wasn't real of course, just the computer selecting phrases according to the context of the game.

Reading through RB's post I thought that it wouldn't be too difficult to write a bit of software that scrapes websites looking for news relating to property, then quotes a small extract.

Follow this up with key phrases, these could be selected and re-arranged according to the content, and hey presto, something that could emulate human behaviour.

Then I wondered, maybe you are the software?

This is getting too spooky for me, we're entering the world of "The Matrix" here, so maybe one of the computer experts on this site could comment?

You must be one of the Neithers?

<_<

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Next paragraph of Iain Dale's (who?) blog:

"But in some ways, these terrible occurences have helped him make his mark as Prime Minister. Even his opponents credit him with handling each of these crises well from a publicity viewpoint, even if the action has sometimes been lacking . He has now had three major opportunities to display his crisis management abilities, something the leader of the opposition rarely has the chance to do."

Relist, are you suggesting GB has caused the floods and foot and mouth? If so, how, and what did he hope to gain?

:unsure::huh::rolleyes:

No, the article was, in fact, not written by me but by Iain Dale. It is really a commentary on how Gordon has ascended at a time when there are an unusual number of cataclysmic events going on. I think Iain may be suggesting that Gordon, like politicians in the past, can ascend to power at inopportune moments. However, sometimes those moments can be spun around to advantage. A good example migh be Winston who was catapulted to fame because of WW2.

Hope this makes the point I believe Iain is making a little clearer?

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Why don't you bulls leave our RB alone? Can you not come out with some genuine bullish data to counter his arguments?

If not, leave his/her style of posting alone!

He/she is one of us (someone who wants houses to become cheaper) and so by declaring war on RB you declare war on us all.

If you're investors or estate agents or VI in any form you're going to get fried and you deserve it. Get used to the idea and plan accordingly.

You're like Hitler Youth when Ivan is at the gates of Berlin! "No surrender!" Really? well choke on your cereal in the next few months 'cos it's gonna get nasty. For you.

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Guest wrongmove
No, the article was, in fact, not written by me but by Iain Dale. It is really a commentary on how Gordon has ascended at a time when there are an unusual number of cataclysmic events going on. I think Iain may be suggesting that Gordon, like politicians in the past, can ascend to power at inopportune moments. However, sometimes those moments can be spun around to advantage. A good example migh be Winston who was catapulted to fame because of WW2.

Hope this makes the point I believe Iain is making a little clearer?

Iain was very clear, tahnk you.

I was referring to the title of the thread, "Has Gordon Released The 4 Horsemen Of The Apocalypse?", written by you, not by Iain.

So to clarify my question to you, Relist, are you suggesting GB has caused the floods and foot and mouth? If so, how, and what did he hope to gain?

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RB, you were doing so well with cutting out the biblical references. What happened?

Iain Dale and his blog came along and spoiled it all! :(

On a serious note though, it is apt for Iain to refer to the Apocaplypse as so many are thinking in these terms in an economic context. Bear Stearns were very apocalyptic on Friday. IMO, the coming HPC will probably be described as having "Biblical" proportions. Less thrilling to say it has "Dictionary" proportions. Or even "Shakespearean" proportions. Just doesn't have the same descriptive power as the imagery conjured up by Biblical references. There are quite a few of these cropping up these days such as "Judgement Day" for BTLers, or houses prices "going to hell in a hand basket" (whatever that means?). Or "God help the overgeared." The best one: "Blessed are the poor for we shall have many more of them after this crash has worked its way through."

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Guest wrongmove
Why don't you bulls leave our RB alone? Can you not come out with some genuine bullish data to counter his arguments?

If not, leave his/her style of posting alone!

He/she is one of us (someone who wants houses to become cheaper) and so by declaring war on RB you declare war on us all.

If you're investors or estate agents or VI in any form you're going to get fried and you deserve it. Get used to the idea and plan accordingly.

You're like Hitler Youth when Ivan is at the gates of Berlin! "No surrender!" Really? well choke on your cereal in the next few months 'cos it's gonna get nasty. For you.

:P

I'm not a bull, but a slightly bearish neither, and I stand to gain big time if property crashes, so I will ignore most of your post.

Bullish news: look at the indices, transactions and approvals.

Why do I question RB? Because as someone who is interested in the market, and wants a crash, I feel his biased, spun posting actually harms the cause. When undecided people read that stuff, it just gives them a damn good excuse to ignore the bear case. They will just conveniently think "the bears are deluded, dishonest nutters. There will be no crash".

This is a forum - a place for debate. It is not just a mouth piece for RB and others at the lunatic fringe of bearishness. If you want somewhere to post any rubbish you like without being challenged, then start a blog at your own expense and censor the comments.

If anyone is like the "Hiltler youth", it is those who try to supress debate to ensure that their view is the only one that gets heard.

Lighten up!

:P

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Iain was very clear, tahnk you.

I was referring to the title of the thread, "Has Gordon Released The 4 Horsemen Of The Apocalypse?", written by you, not by Iain.

So to clarify my question to you, Relist, are you suggesting GB has caused the floods and foot and mouth? If so, how, and what did he hope to gain?

I think Iain's first sentence set the tone quite well:

Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the
four horsemen of the apocaplyse
are out to get him.

Iain was merely using a literary device (the 4 horsemen) to set the context of events that have been occuring that could be seen as apocalyptic. I was posing the question as to whether Gordon is connected to the apocalyptic events that are going on around the world--many of which are ecnomic in their nature. You have to understand that the "4 Horsemen" are metaphorical and that Ian is probably not necessarily blaming Gordon for them but suggesting that Brown could simply be in the wrong place at the wrong time or not, as the case maybe.

The reference to the Apocalypse and the theme of jugment that is used in such literature would point to the floods, pestilence, wars and famine as possible "evil omens" somehow connected to the Brown premiership. Such "omens" are a common literary device and they appear throughout history. Some might argue that the evil "omens" are as a result of an evil presense in government or it might just be pure coincidence. I think Ian leaves it to the reader to decide for themselves. The key here is to distinguish between metaphor and the literal and to try to see the article in the context of the question the author is suggesting the reader pose. IMO Iain sets the tone and then goes on to explain how, even at a time of disaster, Brown can spin events to show himself in a good light.

IMO, the floods are the result of the "El Nino" effect and changing ocean current patterns that may be the result of solar activity and other cosmic phenomena. I have yet to be convinced it is man-made global warming. BSE and other animal diseases have been around for quite a while but I might be persuaded these are as a result of man's negligence in feeding animals inappropriate food.

Brown is simply to blame for aiding and abetting the biggest boom in HPI in world history and thereafter conspiring to perpetuate same when he knew or should have known that the consequences for the economy would be disastrous.

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When undecided people read that stuff, it just gives them a damn good excuse to ignore the bear case. They will just conveniently think "the bears are deluded, dishonest nutters. There will be no crash".

I have to disagree, I think RB's slightly romanticised/sensationalised posting style actually makes lighter reading than others thus making the forum more accessible to newcomers.

This was how I found it 6 months ago and I have been hooked ever since!

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I have to disagree, I think RB's slightly romanticised/sensationalised posting style actually makes lighter reading than others thus making the forum more accessible to newcomers.

This was how I found it 6 months ago and I have been hooked ever since!

Fair and accurate description! In fact, I have a trendency to take VI material and counterspin it to show it's baselessness. We have had several years of EA drama such as "House prices going up up and away" "Prices going through the roof" "House prices going up 150 poinds a day" and so forth. Now its time for the bears to rub the noses of the VIs in some of the bovine excreta they have been spinning for all these years.

The need to repeat certain basic points is so that any newcomers can get a feel for my point of view. We are all at liberty to do this. I have devloped some core beliefs* about HPI that I simply wish to express and if it helps one person to not go ahead and buy that BTL it is all worthwhile.

1. We live in a miracle economy that is based on debt.

2. The economy is cyclical.

3. Gordon's promise of boom only is unrealistic in view of 2. above.

4. IR on their own in a miracle economy enviroment where credit is unlimited are ineffectual to curb inflation.

5. Gold is one of the worst investments over the long haul but can be a good bet if your timing is good.

6. All items that exchange hands for money are "fiat" in relation to the opinion that ascribes that value (Gold included).

7. Milton Friedman was correct when he said "there ain't no free lunch" which, in the context of Gordon's miracle ecnomy, means that the value of a house must be paid for in the end.

8. The BoE is not independent and is a creature of Gordon Brown.

9. This current crash (named Great Crash II) was spawned in Southern California in early 2005 which is almost a mirror market to the UK.

10. The UK economy has a long history of housing booms and busts with each one worse than its predecessor.

11. The current boom could have been largely avoided had Gordon initiated sound fiscal policies such as prudent lending standards, Neutral to restrictive IR policy (as soon as inflation began), taxation on multiple homes, reasonable immigration policies instead of a free for all, currency management to avoid overvaluing sterling and thereby placing limit on our export and manufacturing base (from 20% to 12% under Brown's watch).

12. Great Crash II had begun here by around mid-2005 and was stalled by Gordon's decision to cut IR, raise immigration levels, allowing subprime unrestricted access to the UK market, actively promoting BTL with tax relief. Gordon bought himself a couple of years but the first real signs of a turnaround in HPI began by either the 1st or 2nd Q 2007--jury is still out on which IMO.

13. Most VI HPI indexes are unreliable and are self-serving. The least accurate being those that base HPI on "asking rpices" or so-called "like for like" sales which ignore the cost of improvements.

14. The root cause of Great Crash II is debt and price to pay will be huge with far more damage to be done than we saw in the Great Crash of '89-'96. The social costs are incalculable when you consider family dislocation, debt burdens, repossession, bankruptcy, divorce etc.

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Guest wrongmove
I think Iain's first sentence set the tone quite well:
Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the
four horsemen of the apocaplyse
are out to get him.

blah, blah, blah

This is a perfect example of what I mean.

Article says "Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the four horsemen of the apocaplyse are out to get him.

RB says: Gordon has unleashed the the 4 horsemen.

This is a trivial and silly example, for sure, but the style of twisting the meaning, then blah, blah, blahing until everyone is bored is repeated time after time.

RB will post agian now, saying something like "but the blog was wrtitten by Iain, I only posted it, blah, blah, blah........"

:rolleyes:

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Guest wrongmove
I have to disagree, I think RB's slightly romanticised/sensationalised posting style actually makes lighter reading than others thus making the forum more accessible to newcomers.

This was how I found it 6 months ago and I have been hooked ever since!

Good for you. You are of course very welcome to your opinion, as am I to mine.

RB is great at preaching to the converted, I agree. But the case needs to be taken to the undecided as well.

RB posts many, many times every day. I would not change this if I could. Most of the posts of left to stand. I will continue to post my views too. RB doesn't mind - it gives him an excuse to blah, blah, blah some more. As his lifestyle is basically posting stuff here, he would be very disappointed if I and others did not respond from time to time. Much better to be critised than ignored. ;)

And if you don't like to see stuff challenged, you can always the ostrich button. :)

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RB,

1-14 make sense to me, keep posting, some of your more outrageous cliams of the past don;t seem so outrageous as time goes by. How things change eh?

BTW, there is the overall question of the actions of the money men - they seem to believe their can cure all economic ills by tweaking the tiller. We've been hard left or hard right (whichever way you want ot look at it) for a while now and the world seems to be getting more and more unstable.

Maybe they should think again.

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http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/08/gordo...orsemen-of.html
Saturday, August 04, 2007
Gordon Brown & the Four Horsemen of the Apolcalypse
Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the four horsemen of the apocaplyse are out to get him. In his first six weeks in power he has experienced an act of war, floods and now pestilence in the form of an outbreak of foot and mouth. He must be worried about an imminent outbreak of famine.

The shaking of the world's credit markets and the imminent collapse of all the housing markets that relied on them may well be the 4th shoe to drop on Gordon. We are certainly seeing the poisons that have been lurking in the mud begin to hatch out in the form of rising reposessions, personal bankruptcies and the start of MoM price declines in 4 regions accross the UK. The SM wobbles are a clear indication that confidence in the HPI miracle is evaporating and that there is far worse to come as Bear Stearns indicated on Friday triggering an almost 300 point drop in the DOW (which may affect the FTSE Monday :o )

We've had the floods, the foot-and-mouth but in order to repeat recent history we need a petrol blockage/crisis again. I'd say that the floods and foot-and-mouth are partly the fault of the government. The country needs proper flood controls and local abbatoirs. Some of the problems have been addressed but it's always retrospective action. Wouldn't it be nice to have someone (anyone) in power that had the vision to tackle problems before the inevitable happens?

The rail infrastructure lacks similar investment which led to many tragic but preventable deaths. Without the proper investment and proper population controls the situation will get worse.

It won't matter much if your one-bedroom flat is worth 2million pounds if you can't go anywhere without a life jacket, can't drive the car because of petrol blockades and have to pay inflated prices for decent meat. If you do manage to get beyond these obstacles you'll probably be killed by some scumbag that has been released from prison early.

I'd say that the famine, in terms of lifestyle, came quite a number of years ago for the majority.

Edited by Xurbia

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Gordon Brown could be forgiven for thinking that the four horsemen of the apocaplyse are out to get him. In his first six weeks in power he has experienced an act of war, floods and now pestilence in the form of an outbreak of foot and mouth. He must be worried about an imminent outbreak of famine.

[Terry Pratchet mode]

Ahh bugger. What have I started? Ever since I changed my avatar people have been banging on about armaggedon and shit.

The four horsemen rode four horses. They were described, and interpreted thus:

White - Conquest

Red - War

Black - Famine (that's me!)

Pale - Death

The pale horse was sometimes interpreted as pestilence, (and death follows...) but there was nothing about floods. Those heavenly beings with the seals and the scrolls might have had some of that malarky, but it's nothing to do with us equestrian lot.

Or maybe you're thinking of Noah?

[/Terry Pratchett mode]

Edited by Timm

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