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alabala

Three Lowry's 90% Downside Days In A Row Since 19/07/07

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Three Lowry's 90% downside days in a row since 19/07/07. Market bottom ?

Trend reversal in long term, or just panic selling followed by panic bying?

https://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/2002DowAwardb.pdf

typically occur on a number of occasions throughout a major decline, often spread apart by as much as thirty trading days.
Market declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days often generate a series of

additional 90% Downside Days, often spread apart by as much as 30 trading days.

Therefore, it should not be assumed that an investor can successfully ride out such a

decline without taking defensive measures.

http://www.lowrysreports.com/

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yup,nailed this one almost to the day.

We've got a way to go on this one...probably another 8-10%...buy back in on st.Leger day(end of september)

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yup,nailed this one almost to the day.

We've got a way to go on this one...probably another 8-10%...buy back in on st.Leger day(end of september)

or was the July top the twin of the Dec 31 1999 one? :blink:

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I was reading about Lowry 90% downside days and it’s quite unusual to see three in such short period, the average number of 90% downside days at a major bottom is five. Are we seeing a bottom? This is quite unusual, I was thinking this is related to The Kondratieff Winter and signs that signal a downturn for long way down are in fact these three 90% downside days since the last top. I am not an economist, but seems quite unusual.

If Kondratieff Waves are precise what we see now is the start of a long, long way down and we may see a major socio - economical change. I am not sure how the Feds can interfere with what is already happening, even if the lower the rate the Ponzy schemes are no longer the Schemes of Secured Future, Who is going to buy a houses for investment anymore, what we seen here is quite dramatic in my view the sentiment is shaken and is not going to get better.

http://www.usca.edu/essays/vol142005/simsek.pdf

If this historical trend holds true in the future, the years throughout 2020s

and 2030s would be very sensitive to large-scale social and political movements (as well

as to large scale wars).

The Kondratieff Winter - cycle

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptio...002/Gordon.html

A lot of people believe that this real estate cycle is going to go on for a long period of time as people feel more comfortable with real estate. But to me, Ian, it just appears to me as the end of this cycle and another manifestation of a bubble.

IAN: I agree with you, Jim. I mean, it really has. Real estate is built on debt as the stock market is built on debt, because the margin debt reached record levels when the stock market reached its peak. Real estate is doing the same thing. I think what’s happened is that the Federal Reserve has made all this money available by increasing the money supply quite dramatically, and that money has really found its way through Fannie Mae and so on into the hands of the consumers to remortgage their homes or to purchase homes at higher prices. But that bubble, as I say, is built on debt and the whole purpose of Winter is to cleanse the economy of debt. So it’s difficult to imagine the real estate market staying up in the face of a declining stock market where consumers, who are also in stocks, are losing their shirt there. Also, you have consumers who are steadily losing their jobs. It’s difficult to see that this one debt bubble would stay aloof from what’s happening elsewhere in the economy. I think the real estate market is poised to act exactly the same way as the stock market and all of that debt that’s been built into that market will be cleansed.

Edited by alabala

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http://www.usca.edu/essays/vol142005/simsek.pdf

If this historical trend holds true in the future, the years throughout 2020s

and 2030s would be very sensitive to large-scale social and political movements (as well

as to large scale wars).

The Kondratieff Winter - cycle

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptio...002/Gordon.html

correct.

This is borne out in other more esoteric reading too.

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