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I did promise to give you the good and bad or bear and bull news from our mole at the local EA so here it is:

Mrs B has been coming home lookign frazzled and complaining about how busy she is at the moment - says it has gone beserk - was more used to playing minesweeper on her PC of late . I probably looked a little disappointed at this point, then she clarified the situation - she has been very busy with lettings - apparenlty lots and lots of enquiries from people who have sold / want to sell and have no intention of buying so are looking for rental properties.

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Guest Popalot
I did promise to give you the good and bad or bear and bull news from our mole at the local EA so here it is:

Mrs B has been coming home lookign frazzled and complaining about how busy she is at the moment - says it has gone beserk - was more used to playing minesweeper on her PC of late . I probably looked a little disappointed at this point, then she clarified the situation - she has been very busy with lettings - apparenlty lots and lots of enquiries from people who have sold / want to sell and have no intention of buying so are looking for rental properties.

Your posts from the frontline are great. There's nothing like having someone "on the inside". Interesting, as I wonder how many secretly disgruntled EAs are members of this site....as in really bearish, sensible people who are horrified at what they have had to pedal....

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Your posts from the frontline are great. There's nothing like having someone "on the inside". Interesting, as I wonder how many secretly disgruntled EAs are members of this site....as in really bearish, sensible people who are horrified at what they have had to pedal....

Hang on, it's just one EA in one area. How do you whether a local big firm hasn't just closed or they aren't just a bit waterlogged or numerous other reasons to rent

Edited by jonjo

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Guest d23
I did promise to give you the good and bad or bear and bull news from our mole at the local EA so here it is:

Mrs B has been coming home lookign frazzled and complaining about how busy she is at the moment - says it has gone beserk - was more used to playing minesweeper on her PC of late . I probably looked a little disappointed at this point, then she clarified the situation - she has been very busy with lettings - apparenlty lots and lots of enquiries from people who have sold / want to sell and have no intention of buying so are looking for rental properties.

is this a recent development from your last front line report yesterday?

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I did promise to give you the good and bad or bear and bull news from our mole at the local EA so here it is:

Mrs B has been coming home lookign frazzled and complaining about how busy she is at the moment - says it has gone beserk - was more used to playing minesweeper on her PC of late . I probably looked a little disappointed at this point, then she clarified the situation - she has been very busy with lettings - apparenlty lots and lots of enquiries from people who have sold / want to sell and have no intention of buying so are looking for rental properties.

And are they willing to pay the rents the landlords/ladies demand or are they negotiating the rate down ?

If they are willing to pay the rents then that's bad news. :(

If they are haggling the price down, that's good news. :)

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And are they willing to pay the rents the landlords/ladies demand or are they negotiating the rate down ?

If they are willing to pay the rents then that's bad news. :(

If they are haggling the price down, that's good news. :)

TBH I wouldn't haggle the price of rent round my way when it's usually less than half the cost of a mortgage on the same sort of property. I'd just be very very grateful that some BTLer is happy to pay £180k for a property and then rent it out for £625pcm, when his IO repayments are probably more like £1000.

THIS IS A TRUE STORY OF A HOUSE ON MY STREET.

Incidentally, nobody has moved in and the TO LET sign has been outside for 2 months now. :lol::lol::lol:

Edited by Ethel

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I wonder how many secretly disgruntled EAs are members of this site....as in really bearish, sensible people who are horrified at what they have had to pedal....

I used to come here and lurk when I was still an EA. I was disgruntled and bearish. However, selling houses then was not a hard sell. I never had to pedal anything. The sellers would tell me what they wanted to sell for (more than the last one on the road). Then the buyers would come along and fight over it. It’s not like selling a phone contract where you have to force it down their throat. It's more like selling crack, in that the buyers are their own worst enemy. They practically beg you to sell them stuff. I was horrified alright, but by the public and the lenders more than the business.

Which of course still puts EAs on a par with drug dealers. But it's the price that’s disgusting, not the product.

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Excellent news!!!

Rents should go up up up :)

And when the crash comes I can pick up more properties at low low prices :))

Not very likely - as there is an over supply of rented accommodation, so rents won't rise. And in a crash the Banks will tighten their lending rates and won't lend to first time BTL's because of the high chance of default. In a crash houses will become commodities - that is they will just sell at set prices with no distinction as to condition etc. There will be very little demand - except from those oddball people who actually need somewhere to live!

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is this a recent development from your last front line report yesterday?

NO I just forgot to include it in my last 'report' - the last two weeks have been very busy she said - previously it had been very quiet.

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
NO I just forgot to include it in my last 'report' - the last two weeks have been very busy she said - previously it had been very quiet.

Well done MRS Bearfacts

As yet we don't know if there will be a big imminent crash. But IF there's going to be some form of 'correction' now would seem a good place to start as IR's are rising, repo's growing, HPI slowing etc

What's needed is info from lots more EA's to tell what's really happening. If there's going to ba a 'GC2' you'd expect EA's to be hardly selling any properties with prices being slashed left right & centre

Edited by Yeahbutnocrash

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
TBH I wouldn't haggle the price of rent round my way when it's usually less than half the cost of a mortgage on the same sort of property. I'd just be very very grateful that some BTLer is happy to pay £180k for a property and then rent it out for £625pcm, when his IO repayments are probably more like £1000.

THIS IS A TRUE STORY OF A HOUSE ON MY STREET.

Incidentally, nobody has moved in and the TO LET sign has been outside for 2 months now. :lol::lol::lol:

I can understand a BTLer who would subsidise if the property has plenty of equity (or maybe has other properties which are earning)

But if that's not the case it seems just a bit dodgy at the moment

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
Not very likely - as there is an over supply of rented accommodation, so rents won't rise. And in a crash the Banks will tighten their lending rates and won't lend to first time BTL's because of the high chance of default. In a crash houses will become commodities - that is they will just sell at set prices with no distinction as to condition etc. There will be very little demand - except from those oddball people who actually need somewhere to live!

I expect the oversupply depends on the area and if more people want to rent that means a growth in demand

Also banks restricting lending to new btlers would restrict the supply so I'm not sure your argument would have the result you are implying :unsure:

Of course there may be some type of correction but we still seem a way off from a massive crash as in your scenario (unless IR's go up a fair bit more)

Edited by Yeahbutnocrash

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.......the fun part starts when rents go up but shoeboxes start to depreciate. BTLers may get their rents up a bit if there is a shift to renting but their properties could well start dropping in value MoM by a greater amount than the total monthly rental income :lol:

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Of course there may be some type of correction but we still seem a way off from a massive crash as in your scenario (unless IR's go up a fair bit more)

The point is YBNC that the market is being held up purely by speculators (BTLs) VI hot air and nothing else. The very big question is what will BTLs do once a correction starts or even if prices seem to be going sideways. Do you think they will stay in or sell up ? Do you think the flow of new BTLs will continue or dry up ? My guess is that they will sell up and the flow of new BTls will dry up, at this point the market will crash - big time - it is a long way down to the level at which FTBs can or will jump in.

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Guest Popalot
I used to come here and lurk when I was still an EA. I was disgruntled and bearish. However, selling houses then was not a hard sell. I never had to pedal anything. The sellers would tell me what they wanted to sell for (more than the last one on the road). Then the buyers would come along and fight over it. It’s not like selling a phone contract where you have to force it down their throat. It's more like selling crack, in that the buyers are their own worst enemy. They practically beg you to sell them stuff. I was horrified alright, but by the public and the lenders more than the business.

Which of course still puts EAs on a par with drug dealers. But it's the price that’s disgusting, not the product.

100% agree. This is really important, because a lot of us on here rail at the VIs - official VIs, who are spoken for by their spokespeople. The real rot lies with the greed of human nature. Often it is the female of the partnership who muscles in and demands to beat the Jones' price (mainly because Mrs Jones has taunted her with it at a coffe morning). I speak as a female...but not, hopefully one of the chav posh wannabee breed at large and in control of the country today. :unsure:

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
The point is YBNC that the market is being held up purely by speculators (BTLs) VI hot air and nothing else. The very big question is what will BTLs do once a correction starts or even if prices seem to be going sideways. Do you think they will stay in or sell up ? Do you think the flow of new BTLs will continue or dry up ? My guess is that they will sell up and the flow of new BTls will dry up, at this point the market will crash - big time - it is a long way down to the level at which FTBs can or will jump in.
It's a good point that we don't know how they'd react in a full-blown crash

However we are not in such a crash so that also is sheer 'speculation' at this point

IMO the people most likely to sell are recent new btlers who are struggling or those who are short-term speculators into turning properties for quick profit

Also some may sell to take profit or to consolidate their position. In fact many established btlers may have already done that or doing it now to minimize their risks

As it tends to be a long term project in any case (10, 15, 20 years plus) and forms part of peoples pension planning many must be planning to stay in for the long term. That's why most probably won't worry if the market goes sideways or down a bit (they are long-term bulls)

Also if they sell they can lose a fair portion of equity in tax

But I agree the struggling btlers would have to sell if the market takes a downturn / IR's rise further - But these type of properties may largely consist of fairly recent new-build flats so may not have an impact accross the market

In the end it depends how many are forced to sell and if it really is enough to impact the entire market significantly

Also as you say the number of btl & ftb properties being purchased may reduce which could have a slight downward effect

Edited by Yeahbutnocrash

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The point is YBNC that the market is being held up purely by speculators (BTLs) VI hot air and nothing else. The very big question is what will BTLs do once a correction starts or even if prices seem to be going sideways. Do you think they will stay in or sell up ? Do you think the flow of new BTLs will continue or dry up ? My guess is that they will sell up and the flow of new BTls will dry up, at this point the market will crash - big time - it is a long way down to the level at which FTBs can or will jump in.

But if your wife was rushed off her feet dealing with LETTINGS.. i.e. the blood supply of the Buy to Letter...

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It's a good point that we don't know how they'd react in a full-blown crash

I'd think it will be something comparable to the reaction of a chicken having it's head chopped off. They will run around, direction-less, until they bump into something and fall over, then they will twitch for a bit before eventually coming to rest.

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
I'd think it will be something comparable to the reaction of a chicken having it's head chopped off. They will run around, direction-less, until they bump into something and fall over, then they will twitch for a bit before eventually coming to rest.

Hmmm... in that scenario it might not only be btlers doing that <_<

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The point is YBNC that the market is being held up purely by speculators (BTLs) VI hot air and nothing else. The very big question is what will BTLs do once a correction starts or even if prices seem to be going sideways. Do you think they will stay in or sell up ? Do you think the flow of new BTLs will continue or dry up ? My guess is that they will sell up and the flow of new BTls will dry up, at this point the market will crash - big time - it is a long way down to the level at which FTBs can or will jump in.

The market is already correcting downward outside of London and has been for the last 6 weeks or so but is definitely not crashing unless you define a modest fall in prices as a "crash". It will not crash unless there is a significant "trigger event" that is so profound that it negatively effects buying sentiment simultaneously among large numbers of existing buyers. Ask yourself at what point would you either pull out or try to renegotiate the price of your current house purchase due to concerns that you were paying too much in a falling market? When we reach that point the cycle, then we will be getting close to crash conditions. Without some sort of afementioned trigger, current buying sentiment is still a long way from this point today although the tide is starting to turn.

The 1988 crash was defined by the fact that there was an arbitary deadline set by the government in advance which basically said we will withdraw a significant tax advantage (double Miras) unless you buy a house before this date. Unbelievably irresponsible with hindsight. People rushed to beat the deadline causing an extreme sellers market with peak prices being achieved, but once the deadline passed very large numbers of existing buyers simultaneously decided that they could not afford/no longer wished to buy and withdrew from their purchases. What happened to all of these properties? Of course they were nearly all dumped back onto the market in a very short timescale changing conditions from an extreme sellers market to a buyers market virtually overnight.

What is happening at the moment is a downturn in buying enquiries leading to a modest drop in sales but it is far from a crash at the moment. Most EA offices are indeed very quiet but it is the height of the holiday season. Today we had 3 enquiries in an 8 hour working day but 2 of them had offers accepted. People are still buying out there. The acid test for the market will be the autumn IMHO. More likely scenario is that this downturn will pick up in momentum, quite slowly at first but then gathering pace exponentially in inverse proportion to loss of buying confidence. Do not completely rule out the idea of a economically suicidal but politically expediant rate cut as a precursor to a snap autumnal General Election which would have the effect of shoring up buying confidence in the very short term and reducing the momentum of the downturn.

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The 1988 crash was defined by the fact that there was an arbitary deadline set by the government in advance which basically said we will withdraw a significant tax advantage (double Miras) unless you buy a house before this date. Unbelievably irresponsible with hindsight. People rushed to beat the deadline causing an extreme sellers market with peak prices being achieved, but once the deadline passed very large numbers of existing buyers simultaneously decided that they could not afford/no longer wished to buy and withdrew from their purchases. What happened to all of these properties? Of course they were nearly all dumped back onto the market in a very short timescale changing conditions from an extreme sellers market to a buyers market virtually overnight.

.....so when GB tells us that he's done away with the Tory boom and bust basically all he means is he won't be screwing around with any taxation concerning houses. So that'd be the real reason they have been so jittery about HIPs?

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But if your wife was rushed off her feet dealing with LETTINGS.. i.e. the blood supply of the Buy to Letter...

The bloody supply of the BTL is low-interest rates.

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.....so when GB tells us that he's done away with the Tory boom and bust basically all he means is he won't be screwing around with any taxation concerning houses. So that'd be the real reason they have been so jittery about HIPs?

A very reasonable assertion imho.

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