Where Is The House Price Crash Then?

[hedi]

i have not been on here for some time now, am presently doing up a £1 million property in cenrtal london.

am still interested to see hope triumphing over the facts.

i still hold to my long term theory that prices will fall,bbut gradually and over some considerable time.

a crash in the spectacular way that people want is highly unlikely.

[membrane]

because ?????

never give reasons do they

[CrashedOutAndBurned]

Well, the 90s crash happened over a period of years. I don't think anyone's looking for some dramatic overnight sensation are they?

Prices have slid a little from the Spring 2004 peak, and I'd say they've been static over the last couple of months - very little is moving. There's lots of places with the usual cynical B&Q kichen'n'paint job tart-up that have daft mark-ups, but these have been around for months.

I'm quite happy with even a static market. Saving feels fun, rather than hopeless.

[Time to raise the rents.]

because ?????

never give reasons do they

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They're always asked for elaborate reasons, but when offered, the reasons are chewed to bits by the HPC Poodles regardless of the validity.

Here it is, the big one:

There are currently very few forced sellers in the market, if/when there are a lot more, my opinion may change.

[DonnieDarker]

They're always asked for elaborate reasons, but when offered, the reasons are chewed to bits by the HPC Poodles regardless of the validity.

Here it is, the big one:

There are currently very few forced sellers in the market, if/when there are a lot more, my opinion may change.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have found this in the last 6 months. Sellers who arent really motivated to sell...the only one who is is emigrating.

[Guest wrongmove]

Well, the 90s crash happened over a period of years. I don't think anyone's looking for some dramatic overnight sensation are they?

Prices have slid a little from the Spring 2004 peak, and I'd say they've been static over the last couple of months - very little is moving. There's lots of places with the usual cynical B&Q kichen'n'paint job tart-up that have daft mark-ups, but these have been around for months.

I'm quite happy with even a static market. Saving feels fun, rather than hopeless.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think only Bruno is predicting big falls overnight. Most posters here are thinking in terms of years, not day, weeks or even momths. As TTRTR points out, only masses of forced buyers would cause a short sharp correction. This may happen, if IRs "shoot up" by say 0.5 % but a slow decline looks much more likely.

Of course there are some forced sellers, there always are - deaths, births, divorces, marriages, job changes. These will slowly accumulate. But even static prices are fine for FTBs like myself. We are catching up by saving and increasing our earnings. A decision not to buy now will only be wrong if prices take off again.

[davidjgay]

If you're saying that the only factor now stopping a slide is the lack of people forced to sell then that's a slender thread to be hanging by! If that's the only safety line to protect a ftb from financial ruin it's not enough!

It's academic now for most ftbs - they just can't afford the mortgages and find it's cheaper to rent. Really, it would be wrong to buy now. Sometime in the future perhaps - it's just too much money to risk on some people who temporarily feel they don't have to move. Some always do due to work/divorce/etc etc and to do that they'll have to reduce prices and that will reduce all similar properties in the street.

Still not going to buy your house.

[DonnieDarker]

Some always do due to work/divorce/etc etc

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"divorce"....Donnie ponders...Eureka moment: I'm going to become a gigolo and bed the wealthy homeowners in the area and send the divorce rates rocketting.

THEN I can buy!

[patprimer74]

They're always asked for elaborate reasons, but when offered, the reasons are chewed to bits by the HPC Poodles regardless of the validity.

Here it is, the big one:

There are currently very few forced sellers in the market, if/when there are a lot more, my opinion may change.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No forced sellers !!! I'm sure I've recently heard of someone on this board who's planning to offer £408k for a property "worth" £480k !! That's a drop of £72k (15%) in one go.

There may be "very few forced sellers" out there, TTRTR, but you found one, did you not?

p

[Dicky]

I have found this in the last 6 months. Sellers who arent really motivated to sell...the only one who is is emigrating.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The only likely thing to cause forced sellers is either a sudden rise in IR or unemployment.

1988-1990 IR’s went from 8% to 15% that definitely tore it; in fact 15% wasn’t that necessary 12% broke the camels back a rise of 50%. Inflation was higher so the effect of IR’s was less great back then.

2005 IR 3.5% to 4.75% a rise of 36%, we still haven’t seen folks coming of their discount IR’s rates yet but I can guarantee 3% discount to nearly 7% SVR is going to pi$$ on a lot of bonfires.

Forced sellers will be out in force come the Spring, its going to get very messy.

[Time to raise the rents.]

No forced sellers !!!  I'm sure I've recently heard of someone on this board who's planning to offer £408k for a property "worth" £480k  !!  That's a drop of £72k (15%) in one go.

There may be "very few forced sellers" out there, TTRTR, but you found one, did you not?

p

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Won't know unless I try will I? I can't view it until mid February.

The fact that the property is vacant is enough to say they're committed to selling & not letting it out again (I believe it was previously let out by the looks of the furniture in the photos). It doesn't necessarily mean they're a forced seller though, just a keen one, we'll see how keen!

[Realty Cheque]

Where I live in North London there seems to be some renewed activity in house purchasing, but unless the buyer on the first rung isn't selling and is going to let it out, I can't see the chain being completed. There seems to be a distinct lack of 1st time buyers and with prices like these I'm not surprised!

Reality Check:

1, If I was going to stretch myself financially to buy an asset, I would want to make sure I was buying into an appreciating market, which it isn't.

2, I'm not tempted to move into an ex-LA tower block, warts and all, and risk being charged for a new roof or a lick of paint (just because they need to spend their budget for the year).

Find a Property Price Guide - NW1

To buy a

studio flat £ 166,682

1 bed flat £ 242,506

2 bed flat £ 413,147

2 bed house £ 530,061

3 bed flat £ 564,270

3 bed house £ 716,049

4 bed house £ 820,750

To rent a

studio flat £ 839 pcm

1 bed flat £ 1176 pcm

2 bed flat £ 1802 pcm

2 bed house £ 1977 pcm

3 bed flat £ 2669 pcm

3 bed house £ 2653 pcm

4 bed house £ 4103 pcm

Based on average advertised prices over 3 months

Could anyone out there explain why I shouldn't do anything other than wait for prices to drop futher?

[Night Owl]

"divorce"....Donnie ponders...Eureka moment: I'm going to become a gigolo and bed the wealthy homeowners in the area and send the divorce rates rocketting.

THEN I can buy!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Now that's what I call tucking your shirt in,giving your head a shake,and buckling down to some good old fashioned ...

[Van]

No forced sellers?

That's right.. people never:

- get relocated

- die

- build new houses

- Have babies

- emmigrate

- get divorced

etc etc etc.

We've been through this many times over...

[sacon]

presently doing up a £1 million property

a crash in the spectacular way that people want is highly unlikely.

Do you have any money left over to buy a hat, a big chewy hat that would be difficult to swallow ?

[OnlyMe]

The 7 D's.

Debt

Divorce

Dole

Disease / Death

Drop outs ( Migrators )

Downsizers

Dependants ( a new baby)

[Time to raise the rents.]

No forced sellers?

That's right.. people never:

- get relocated

- die

- build new houses

- Have babies

- emmigrate

- get divorced

etc etc etc.

We've been through this many times over...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Most of those aren't particularly forced sellers Van, here's a forced seller:

Unemployed, unable to pay the mortgage, deeply in arrears, bills arriving non-stop with penalty charges for late payments.

Those are the forced sellers I speak of. The list you gave sounds more like a bunch of people that could choose to become landlords instead of selling (especially in the case of the dead person, their family probably won't have a mortgage to worry about).

[oracle]

well the arrears,extreme debt figures are stacking up nicely then aren't they!!!

[oracle]

oh and divorce will not be so much of an issue this time around!!.

very large numbers of people now are in single-occupancy.

what's going to happen when they are made redundant??????

no support structure in place,i doubt many of them have taken steps to safeguard an income should this happen...and landlord can't get his rent...eek!

this crash WILL be worse than 1990!!!

[Casual Observer]

I have found this in the last 6 months. Sellers who arent really motivated to sell...the only one who is is emigrating.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it'll follow the pattern set by London last year. 1-3% nominal falls each year for the nex 4 or 5 years. In real terms trhis will equate to a correction of about 25- 30%

[200p]

Heidi

How would you like the house price correction for the lambs brought to the slaughter house?

Quick and painless?

Or Slow and agonising?

[yogibear]

Lack of forced sellers certainly propped up the Japanese market. I like it TTRTR you don't like the fact that Van listed lots of people who are forced sellers so you redefine the term. That's classic denial. Next I presume you'll get angry....

[IMupNorth]

Well, there's no house price crash round where I live.

Before Xmas, I could see prices being reduced, and the average house price dropped 5% from end of September thru mid December. Everything was going according to plan.

Now in the last 6 weeks, everything has changed. Next to no price reductions and average asking prices have gone back up by about 3.5%.

However, supply of houses coming to the market far outstrips demand. Number of houses on the market has doubled since end of September and is still going up.

It remains to be seen whether these increased asking prices will stick. Given the overwhelming drop in mortgage applications and the resulting massive drop in money being put into the market - £6bn down in the last quarter from a year earlier.

Something has got to give soon.

As TTRTR says, at the moment there are very few forced sellers. However people can't put their lives on hold forever and will eventually want to start moving house.

[Realistbear]

As this market was a speculative bubble driven by the irrational exuberance of the fast buck chasers it cannot have a soft landing. Get rich quick speculators want a RETURN on their money not a slow decline in asset value and returns. Now that they see poor prospects for good returns they will bail. This will feed on itself and bring the HPC.

Perception is a powerful agent in market changes. Perception drove the market up and perception will bring it down--with a little help of the fundamentals of course. Remember stock markets move largely because of sentiment.

As Merv King (BoE) said: house prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real.

No wiser words have been spoken in relation to the bubble market.

P.S. forced sellers come later when unemployment picks up and those interest only loans turn into reality.

[urban_hymn]

The list you gave sounds more like a bunch of people that could choose to become landlords instead of selling

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Through the window, from where I sit at my PC, I can see a cheap plastic "To Let" board forlornly flapping in the wind. It's in the front garden of a property over the road that's been empty for about 4 months.

I'm in Wolverhampton. Wolverhampton is Void City. There are hundreds of rental properties that are immediately available. Choosing to be a landlord is not a good business decision at the moment around here.

Perhaps it's different in other parts of the country.