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Guest The_Oldie

Home Prices In U.s. Fall 2.8 Percent, Most In Six Years, Case-shiller Says

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Guest The_Oldie

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell the most in at least six years, suggesting the housing recession has yet to touch bottom.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas dropped 2.8 percent in May from a year ago, led by declines in Detroit and San Diego, according to the report issued today by Standard & Poor's and MacroMarkets LLC. The drop was less than the median forecast of four economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The declines indicate that housing will continue to hamstring the world's largest economy, economists say. A glut of unsold properties and mounting defaults are forcing builders to scale back construction and hindering consumer spending as homeowners are less able to borrow against home equity.

``Things are getting worse rather than better,'' said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``If home prices keep falling, eventually consumer confidence and spending will take a hit.''

``We are experiencing home-price depreciation almost like never before, with the exception of the Great Depression,'' Angelo Mozilo, chief executive officer of Countrywide Financial Corp., said last week on a conference call after the biggest U.S. mortgage lender reported a 33 percent decline in second-quarter net income due to late loan payments.

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Is that all? I thought they were crashing in the US?

http://macromarkets.com/recent_news/articl...007_nytimes.pdf

WHAT would a definition of a housing bust tell us? First, it would help explain why, despite all the focus on the possibility of a bust, many people may feel that the housing market really isn’t all that bad right now. On average, and based on national surveys, price declines haven’t been that severe.

But if the pessimists are right that there’s more to come, look out. A 10 percent decline in prices is likely to feel pretty awful. And then everyone might agree on what a housing bust is.

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Has anyone got the MoM? Otherwise this is meaningless really. It could be +10% in the first six months and a 13% crash since then, or it could be near-stabilisation.

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2.8% may represent the borad market which, after all, has not seen that much irrational HPI over the past decade. Texas, for example, hardly saw 20% over the entire decade.

But.....................

The crash zones are there and they are going down hard. 2.8% sounds like the fall for just one month is some places:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/cont...oney.com/RENEWS

Home sales, prices plunge in June
Click-2-Listen
Palm Beach Post staff and wires
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
UPDATED: 12:43 p.m. July 25, 2007
Single-family home sales in Palm Beach County plunged 19 percent in June, to 764 from 947 a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors said today.
The median price fell 7 percent
, to $377,900 from $405,500 in June 2006, the associaton said.

http://drhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/0...oney.com/RENEWS

Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Lakewood. A Short Sale with a $100,000+ Loss.
Sale History
08/31/2006: $500,000
03/17/2006: $489,000
The last buyer enjoyed the place so much they decided to hand it right back to the bank in 6 months. The bank, looking at sophisticated market analysis of the area decided to put the home back on the market for $500,000. This price was arrived at by the “latest greater fool theory” of appraisal or LGFT for short. Looking at the LGFT, the bank figured they would easily recoup their money. Forget about the subprime implosion or mounting inventory, they put on their rosy colored glasses and saw the market according to them. Here is the pricing action on this great home:
Price Reduced: 04/24/07 -- $499,900 to $485,000
Price Reduced: 05/27/07 -- $485,000 to $470,000
Price Reduced: 07/11/07 -- $470,000 to $450,000
Price Reduced: 07/18/07 -- $450,000 to $400,000

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Guest xeouialp

It's a 2% fall in house prices over a one year period. That's not meaningless.

If house prices rise by 25% in one year, you don't ask has anyone got the MoM because it could be -25% in the first six months and +50% in the last six, because everybody (everybody) only talks about house prices soaring.

I think you MoM request falls into the "would be nice to know" category, not "would make meaningful" category.

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It could get interesting from here on in, but I remember hearing it was crashing 6 months ago. Let's face it the back of the rollercoaster is still climbing as it were.

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totally anecdotal but... a bunch of americans i met recently were bemoaning housing situation. Family had put property on market in california and reportedly not had a single bite. Nice part of so cal as well. Been on for 2 months...hmmmmm

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Cheers. Now we're talking. There are two ways of looking at this - one is that prices peaked a year ago and have been falling monthly ever since. The other is that the monthly falls peaked in December (at -0.65) and have been getting smaller since then, at -0.23 this month.

The first monthly fall was in August, so we should expect that YoY figure to get bigger for a while longer, no matter what...

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