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AvidFan

You'll Be Deloitte'd. I Know I Was.

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Have you ever noticed that if you say "Deloitted" instead of delighted, it sounds as though you have a Birmingham accent?

Here we go:

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0%2C10..._EconCommentary

Read the summary page, download the report or just listen to the podcast.

Skipping past the first 6 minutes of pap (sorry, Roger) he's asked about where IRs are headed. His reply, and I quote:

"I think if we get to 7%, we've gone too far"

Noooooh, d'ya think?

Then he goes on to say:

"6% is a given, and I think it's likely they'll go much higher, to around 6.5%"

Roger, me old mukka, if they go to 6.5% there'll be blood on the streets. Foxton EAs preferred mode of transport around London won't be the mini, it'll be the body bag...

Cheered me up anyway. 6.5%. I'm all for that.

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I got sent the deloitte economic bulletin mid-2006 predicting that rates would be at 4.5% at the end

of 2006, and would fall to 4.25% by the end of 2007.

They'll just say whatever people want to hear.

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I got sent the deloitte economic bulletin mid-2006 predicting that rates would be at 4.5% at the end

of 2006, and would fall to 4.25% by the end of 2007.

They'll just say whatever people want to hear.

Oh, you've spoilt my early morning "HPC" mood now.

But hang on, who "wants" 7% IRs apart from us lot?

Edited by AvidFan

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Oh, you've spoilt my early morning "HPC" mood now.

But hang on, who "wants" 7% IRs apart from us lot?

I should have said, they were just saying what people wanted to hear,

now they seem to be telling it as it is.

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Bootle is the 'poke in the eye with a shitty stick' of a HPC.

Almost every time he makes a prediction the opposite happens.

Hes up there with that Smith guy from the times for getting things wrong.

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Bootle is the 'poke in the eye with a shitty stick' of a HPC.

Almost every time he makes a prediction the opposite happens.

Hes up there with that Smith guy from the times for getting things wrong.

Now you've definitely twisted my mellon, man.

So what are you saying? Because Bootle said 6.5% they're staying at 5.75%?

Edited by AvidFan

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Now you've definitely twisted my mellon, man.

So what are you saying? Because Bootle said 6.5% they're staying at 5.75%?

Lets play 'Bootle says' (aka David Smith says).

Its easy to play - whatever he says, do the opposite.

Rates at 6.5% (up 0.75%) means rates back to 5%. Its easy.

PS - @ Avid - sorry about yer Melons man, it was an accident.

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But hang on, who "wants" 7% IRs apart from us lot?

People with savings, so... old people living off a stash, prudent young people etc...

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But hang on, who "wants" 7% IRs apart from us lot?

It's not so much a question of who wants high rates, as who wants inflation to be contained.

Think of it this way: persistent high inflation throughout the economy is the deadly tropical disease, and high interest rates are the vaccination.

Now who wants a six-inch needle stuck in their arm?

Edit: grammar, sheesh!

Edited by benj

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It's not so much a question of who wants high rates, as who wants inflation to be contained.

Think of it this way: persistent high inflation throughout the economy is the deadly tropical disease, and high interest rates are the vaccination.

Now who wants a six-inch needle stuck in there arm?

When rising oil and food prices affect the CPI basket , directly or indirectly IR's will have no alternative but to rise....not really connected to house prices....... :o:o

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Guest d23
I got sent the deloitte economic bulletin mid-2006 predicting that rates would be at 4.5% at the end

of 2006, and would fall to 4.25% by the end of 2007.

They'll just say whatever people want to hear.

Their Jan 05 bulletin (it's in the predictions archive of this site) predicted a 20% drop in house prices by '07 and IR's of 3.5% by the end of 2006.

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Oh, you've spoilt my early morning "HPC" mood now.

But hang on, who "wants" 7% IRs apart from us lot?

Anyone with savings?

I was offered 8% by Lloyds the other day. Savings.

(granted I will need to look into if this is for the full amount... etc...)

Egg have offered me a fixed rate mortgage for 6.2%... :)

I am quite happy.

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Anyone with savings?

I was offered 8% by Lloyds the other day. Savings.

(granted I will need to look into if this is for the full amount... etc...)

Egg have offered me a fixed rate mortgage for 6.2%... :)

I am quite happy.

...you are now a banker...borrow low ..lend high..... :P:lol::lol:

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They're all morons. They know nothing.

You're a moron if you ever think anything they say is worth listening to.

Why doesn't someone corner him and say 'Roger, look, be reasonable, every time you open you're mouth you're WRONG - why don't you SHUT UP!'

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Bootle and many of his contemporaries have have a huge common sense defecit and are rear view mirror merchants.

These know nothings time and again fail to spot subtle key changes such as the rise of IO mortgages.

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Have you ever noticed that if you say "Deloitted" instead of delighted, it sounds as though you have a Birmingham accent?

Here we go:

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0%2C10..._EconCommentary

Read the summary page, download the report or just listen to the podcast.

Skipping past the first 6 minutes of pap (sorry, Roger) he's asked about where IRs are headed. His reply, and I quote:

"I think if we get to 7%, we've gone too far"

Noooooh, d'ya think?

Then he goes on to say:

"6% is a given, and I think it's likely they'll go much higher, to around 6.5%"

Roger, me old mukka, if they go to 6.5% there'll be blood on the streets. Foxton EAs preferred mode of transport around London won't be the mini, it'll be the body bag...

Cheered me up anyway. 6.5%. I'm all for that.

In the article he writes "Leeds and Edinburgh, for example, are now leading financial centres"

In the case of Edinburgh is he talking about the last 300 years.....as now!.......obviously awareness of the rest of the world outside the M25 or the inner ring road does not register with this person of whom I have never heard... :huh::huh:

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Bootle is the 'poke in the eye with a shitty stick' of a HPC.

Almost every time he makes a prediction the opposite happens.

Hes up there with that Smith guy from the times for getting things wrong.

Agreed. I remember telling him he was wrong about equities in early 2004, because sentiment was far too bearish to allow for more downside. He was advocating fixed interest. He sent me back a single word email : "interesting". Sarcastic *******. Of course he was wrong on equities, bonds and property. Perhaps he should chance his luck on calling the used car market?

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Bootle is the 'poke in the eye with a shitty stick' of a HPC.

Almost every time he makes a prediction the opposite happens.

Hes up there with that Smith guy from the times for getting things wrong.

Looks like you may be correct. Annoying, really.

1 year swap rates off last week's high by 6 basis points:

http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html

1 year UK swap: 6.32%. Minus margin = 6.17%. Which means 6% IRs tops before a steady decline.

Edited by AvidFan

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Bootle gets it right. He's just got his timing all wrong.

He'll be vindicated in good time, and he'll be the bank of england governor.

...no no..the Bank of Noddyland..... :o:huh::o ...or is that where we are..?

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http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html

1 year UK swap: 6.32%. Minus margin = 6.17%. Which means 6% IRs tops before a steady decline.

That's all well and good, but actually the 1yr swap rate is no more reliable than the MPC minutes as an indicator of the future of the BoE base rate. Hence all those threads that crop up on here when the minutes/inflation report/IR decision/governor's speech is released and the swap rates conveniently re-adjust themselves.

If you'd looked at swaps twelve months ago, they would have been confidently telling you that rates would peak at 5.25% and then start to decline.

Knowledge of the future remains tantalizingly out of reach... :)

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Knowledge of the future remains tantalizingly out of reach... :)

I knew you were going to say that.

Oh no - I've just created a time paradox. I'm melting, m e l t i n g . . .

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