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" Experts" Now Live In "fear" Of A H P C In Wales


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http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/02...-name_page.html

Experts fear Welsh house boom is over
Jul 28 2007
by Tomos Livingstone, Western Mail
WALES’ house price boom is stuttering to a halt, latest figures show, as next week’s introduction of Home Information Packs and expected increase in interest rates add to the gloom for families hoping to sell their homes.
New data from the Land Registry suggests the surge in house prices seen in recent years is coming to an end as a string of interest rate rises begins to bite.

Fear will no doubt spread across the nation. Walk down any high street and the smell of fear will be evident in every EA office. Great Crash 2 has arrived! According to the most recent LR report Wales saw MoM negatives.

Edited by Realistbear
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Looks like my Dad STRed at the right time. sold his flat in Cardiff (bought in 1996) and made 150K. nice one. His decision was nothing to do with me, of course, ehem ;)

I was thinking that if we did have an HPC here in the UK it would come slowly and creep up on us. It seems that its going to slap us in the face. Whats that light at the end of the tunnel?...oh no its a train :lol:

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The usual suspects probably. EAs.

They quote or refer to various "experts."

1. Nationwide’s chief economist

2. Land Registry figures for Wales

3. Ian Perry, an RICS spokesman

4. A spokeswoman for the Department for Communities and Local Government

5. Phil Delaney, Halifax’s Wales regional manager

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Wales is an interesting place from the point of view of 'crashology'. Prices have been pretty flat in may areas since 2004-5, especially for family houses, but we had our 'soft landing' in that things have chugged on slowly since then. Now virtually NOTHING over 200K seems to be selling. I live in a nice little village 3 mins from the M4, 15 mins from Cardiff, yet a nice 3 bed semi, sold in 2003 for £140, has not sold after 9 months at £155K, and now has failed to even be auctioned at offer price of £145K+. It feels like there is a slow realisation that the fun and games are over here. Falls of 25% plus quite likely in my view, and certainly bargains to be had from desperate sellers. Wales is really into 'keeping up with the joneses' (no irony intended, and I'm welsh), so my guess is that a lot of the £30K cars I see around here are bought with MEW/ C Card debt by families on under average wage. It will be a story of human misery, much to my regret.

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I've been keeping an eye on prices in the Cardiff area for a while as I'm planning to move back to the area next summer. It's been quite discouraging until recently. However it seems to me a small shift downwards has already taken place. Whereas in the last 6 months I would see one property in a blue-moon that was potentially suitable, and in our price-bracket, browsing this morning there is a small selection of properties that would be of interest. Long way to go, but I think some vendors are definately dropping prices to sell. Long may it continue.

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Wales is an interesting place from the point of view of 'crashology'. Prices have been pretty flat in may areas since 2004-5, especially for family houses, but we had our 'soft landing' in that things have chugged on slowly since then. Now virtually NOTHING over 200K seems to be selling. I live in a nice little village 3 mins from the M4, 15 mins from Cardiff, yet a nice 3 bed semi, sold in 2003 for £140, has not sold after 9 months at £155K, and now has failed to even be auctioned at offer price of £145K+. It feels like there is a slow realisation that the fun and games are over here. Falls of 25% plus quite likely in my view, and certainly bargains to be had from desperate sellers. Wales is really into 'keeping up with the joneses' (no irony intended, and I'm welsh), so my guess is that a lot of the £30K cars I see around here are bought with MEW/ C Card debt by families on under average wage. It will be a story of human misery, much to my regret.

property in south yorks is much the same not selling, Nice 3 bed detached i been watching which is a repro was put on market at 143k, on market for a few months no sale so put in auction at 130k+. Did not sell so now back on the market at 135k.

I have travelled around the country quite a bit in last couple of months and there seems a lot of property for sale at the moment with not many sold signs on.

Edited by TIMSY
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The crash last time emanated from a chill blowing across from the East ,starting in East Anglia in 1988.This time the storm is coming from the West blowing across the Atlantic from the US to Ireland and now creeping through Wales.Looks like the West Midlands is now in the firing line RB.

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Three and a half years ago we moved to the Dorset coast, the house next door was on the Market for £285K. Last month sold sign went up, it sold off an asking price of £330k. In the three year interim period they added a nice conservetory and new kitchen. We are told that prices have been going up 10% yoy, not allowing for the work done and not compounding the HPI inflation rate surely the asking price should have been closer to £385K ?

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http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/02...-name_page.html
Experts fear Welsh house boom is over
Jul 28 2007
by Tomos Livingstone, Western Mail
WALES’ house price boom is stuttering to a halt, latest figures show, as next week’s introduction of Home Information Packs and expected increase in interest rates add to the gloom for families hoping to sell their homes.
New data from the Land Registry suggests the surge in house prices seen in recent years is coming to an end as a string of interest rate rises begins to bite.

Fear will no doubt spread across the nation. Walk down any high street and the smell of fear will be evident in every EA office. Great Crash 2 has arrived! According to the most recent LR report Wales saw MoM negatives.

The title of the post is disconnected as usual from the press article.

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Three and a half years ago we moved to the Dorset coast, the house next door was on the Market for £285K. Last month sold sign went up, it sold off an asking price of £330k. In the three year interim period they added a nice conservetory and new kitchen. We are told that prices have been going up 10% yoy, not allowing for the work done and not compounding the HPI inflation rate surely the asking price should have been closer to £385K ?

Yep,the biggest MEW fest in the history of the World is distorting the indicies .Over the last two years Brits have burnt billions on granite work tops,conservatories,loft conversions,block paving,new kichens,new bathrooms,laminates,extensions etc etc etc.

God help the Bull who projects the indicies onto paper profit if they haven't burnt the necessary readies to keep pace with the indicies.Guess what it aint Grannies house ,which she has lived in for the last fifty ,which is changing hands;it's the properties which have been improved.

Edited by crashmonitor
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The crash last time emanated from a chill blowing across from the East ,starting in East Anglia in 1988.This time the storm is coming from the West blowing across the Atlantic from the US to Ireland and now creeping through Wales.Looks like the West Midlands is now in the firing line RB.

Totally agree. W Midlands is next. Quite a few reductions in flats and smaller properties as well as new build 4 bed estate type houses already happening.

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Totally agree. W Midlands is next. Quite a few reductions in flats and smaller properties as well as new build 4 bed estate type houses already happening.

"And remember to wrap up warm as it's cold out there."

[Weather forecast ends with animated smile of eager supply-teacher reading Harry Potter to nine-year olds...]

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash

The article actually says they fear the boom is over - It's not the same as fearing a crash

Do they mention a crash in the article?

The end of the article says:

But “solid economic fundamentals” and a shortage of housing will continue to support house prices.

Probably only people who are keen for there to be a crash would assume we are about to have a crash (coz they've been wrongly saying there will be one for ages or are priced out)

Edited by Yeahbutnocrash
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Yep,the biggest MEW fest in the history of the World is distorting the indicies .Over the last two years Brits have burnt billions on granite work tops,conservatories,loft conversions,block paving,new kichens,new bathrooms,laminates,extensions etc etc etc.

I don't want one of those. I've told estate agents I don't want houses that have been fannied about with by amateurs, glossing over cracks and forcing their crap taste and layout on me.

I'd rather have a house 10-12 years old that's not been touched. At least that way I get what I want.

Oh yes, I want a nice new kitchen, laminate flooring, conservatory, updated bathroom, but to MY crap tastes and weird ideas.

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You sure about that? An offer went in on a house today one hour (supposedly) before I viewed. Offerers had nothing to sell & offered 265K (both work in a bank -rumour has it & can get the mortgage) . Ok, I offered 250K cash - & was declined. I hope the market does fall & they dont get the mortgage or pull out? Jees, nobody wants my hard earned money! thats just compounding interest. Ok, I know I should be patient, but everything is selling where Im looking CM & RM postcodes, so Im a bit spooked that if the crash dosent happen, I will miss the boat! :blink: Yes, all sympathy greatly fully received & no abuse please! :rolleyes:

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You sure about that? An offer went in on a house today one hour (supposedly) before I viewed. Offerers had nothing to sell & offered 265K (both work in a bank -rumour has it & can get the mortgage) . Ok, I offered 250K cash - & was declined. I hope the market does fall & they dont get the mortgage or pull out? Jees, nobody wants my hard earned money! thats just compounding interest. Ok, I know I should be patient, but everything is selling where Im looking CM & RM postcodes, so Im a bit spooked that if the crash dosent happen, I will miss the boat! :blink: Yes, all sympathy greatly fully received & no abuse please! :rolleyes:

I think you'll be in a better position than they will be in 12 months time. You'll have bought a property you want at a better price than today and they'll have negative equity. IMHO.

Shame... for them... ;)

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The article actually says they fear the boom is over - It's not the same as fearing a crash

Do they mention a crash in the article?

The end of the article says:

But “solid economic fundamentals” and a shortage of housing will continue to support house prices.

Probably only people who are keen for there to be a crash would assume we are about to have a crash (coz they've been wrongly saying there will be one for ages or are priced out)

The article clearly states that the boom is over. What follows a boom? Or, more to the point, what always follows a boom? Moreover, what follows a boom of the magnitude we have just suffered through?

Don't say a "soft landing" as that myth has been dispelled after the Lereahian theory was proven false in the US segment of Great Crash 2. The housing cycle is just that, a cycle. Boom & _____________.

The "fear" that is referred to in the article stems from the dawning reality that there is much to fear after a boom has finished its cycle.

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Oh yes, I want a nice new kitchen, laminate flooring, conservatory, updated bathroom, but to MY crap tastes and weird ideas.

Laminate is horrible stuff -- glue mixed with sawdust, given a plastic coating and printed with a repeating wood pattern. I can't understand why it's so popular with the renovation brigade (apart from the fact that everybody uses it on the property porn shows). Tongue and groove pine floorboards, laid over underlay and stained to whatever colour you like, are cheaper, easier to cut and much nicer to live with. Plus, installing real timber flooring instead of nasty plastic composites might just help preserve some value in the coming HPC...

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The article clearly states that the boom is over. What follows a boom? Or, more to the point, what always follows a boom? ...

Is it a bust? If there's one thing that makes Happy? happy, it's a nice bust

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I drove into Cardiff from a 'village' on the outskirts today. Actually twice. I forgot my wallet the first time. Anyway, I've never seen so many For Sale signs along the route. There were two Sold, but the vast majority were not. A good number of them were the quality family homes that are supposedly in short supply. Within half a mile of where I sit now there are For Sale signs on decent properties that are simply refusing to budge. Maybe it's those stupid prices. I sense we've been through 'stagnant' now around here. I'm expecting the blood bath to arrive shortly.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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