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(This is now buried in another thread. It's important and it took me two hours to write so I'm posting it again. And I'm going to keep bumping it until everyone is embarrassed for me.)

Hang on, I thought Stock Markets had a forward looking view of some 12 - 18 months AHEAD.

Now, if that's the case, then I'm with RB, this could just be the beginning of the end although not quite the end of the beginning. (Apologies to Churchill for the miss quote.) <_<

Who told you that? 12-18 months? Ahha! You've been reading too many books. You sound like one of those Motley Foolers who read something and think it must be real. "Hey, stock markets go up 12% a year on average so if you just buy until you’re 314 years old you'll make a killing!"

Sorry Bulltra I'm not suggesting you're as naive (or, indeed, as thick) as a Motley Moron, but this is interesting. I believe it was the Deutsche Bank economist Clap von Trapp who first calculated that the stock market was 12-18 months ahead of the general economy. Unfortunately, his methodology was seriously flawed; you see, one of the hamsters he used to pull the little chariot he had his tea delivered on had a gammy leg. This completely threw von Trapp’s calculations.

He was later reported to have said on his death bed that "Eet vos ol zee bollsheet; I tell ya!"

And he was right.

The bond, or debt, markets are leading everything. Everything is about debt/credit/sovs/fundmangerspooing in pantz.

The stock market, and most certainly the Dow, is currently Patrick out of Spongebob Squarepants. It hasn’t got a fecking clue. Everybody is just waiting to see if the sub-prime-alt-A-what-the-hey is going to come out of the closet alive or dead.

Dead guys, It’s dead. It was hardly ever alive. Sub-prime is Weekend at Bernie’s down at the Investment Bankers Arms.

Sub-prime isn’t toxic. I’ve had a problem with that word and it got in the way of understanding this whole mess because this whole mess is very complex and difficult to understand. The word isn’t Toxic; it’s Zombie. This stuff isn’t just worse than junk, this stuff was never alive. It was worked with little pumps that inflated bits of it and every time it inflated someone would see that they had become richer for nothing more than sitting on their fat arrses and watching Eastenders in the house they bought because they wanted security, but now they’re property magnates cause women with big bums and gays (not that I…) with posh accents told them to borrow insanely because what other strategy is there when one wants to own?

This is why it all happened:

Some smarty-pants in the markets have been given software too powerful for their tiny minds to handle.

This whole thing would be a software glitch if we got to blame it on the software.

An awful lot of people are about to find out that not only have they not increased their wealth substantially, but they have been rogered seriously up the arrse (for where else would such a thing take place?) in lieu of the wealth that was supposed to happen.

“The meek have indeed inherited the earth” I wrote in a shitey, gelded, article for MoneyWeek and it stuck in my craw for I have never observed a single time in history when the little guy really did make out like a bandit. And it’s not about to happen now either.

Paulsen said yesterday: “blah, blah, no idea, blah, I saw Rubin do this and it worked for him, blah, blah will they find me out? blah, blah, what is sub-prime anyway… whzzat?”

These guys have no idea. We should be ashamed as a society that we actually believe these people.

I once wrote something about conductors and it was important. I postulated that the only people who can really tell the difference between a conductor and a kid-on artist are the people who can. To the rest of us they all look like guys waving their arms about. Rubin was a Treasury Secretary and Paulsen is a guy waving his arms about. Gordon Brown is a guy who used to get other people to wave his arms about but this time it’ll do him no good. We’ll all be on to him as soon as we all lose a bundle o’ money. That’s the evidence that people understand.

So Bulltra, again I flatter myself for believing I’m saying something deep. Something fundamental about economics. I wouldn’t want a few corny jokes to get in the way of a Nobel Prize now, would I?

I don’t know what’s supposed to lead what by how much and I don’t like Doctor Who much anyway. But you can bet the house (quick, before it’s too late) that the debt market is going to be slapping the stock markets around with a giant horsecock for quite a while.

It’s funny, today they all rushed into Treasuries and farted about with rates in the process. Tomorrow they’ll shit themselves when they get to thinking that Bush is such a bumpkin and Paulsen doesn’t know why they couldn’t have given him a UK Ambassador gig that maybe Treasuries are shite? What about gold; jeez, oil is scary, what about OPEC? They’ll announce more production just for a laugh and I’ll get killed, then Bush’ll nuke Iran and I’ll be out of the trade by the time that happens. What’s left? There’s no more room for any money in New Zealand and the Irish all wear top hats. If I put it in Japan it’ll just sit there like a Japanese Robbie Williams fan going crazy at a concert. If I put money into China I have to pay some git a fortune just to get it in and there’s about three trillion dollars chasing shares that represent three percent of a few crappy companies that’ll all end up bankrupt as soon as the last Chinese official liquidates his positions.

So, the Dow leads the market by 12-18 months eh? Well, my man, here’s my wad, put it in the Dow if you will for in eighteen months it’ll be leading everything else down a big black hole if I’m not mistaken.

Well, that doesn’t sound too good so how about put the money in ‘the market’ you know, the one that is led by the Dow by 12-18 months? Bloody hell, this is complicated. I wish I was an economist and I didn’t have to torture myself every time I wanted to dig a decent hole for my money.

Nothing ‘leads’ anything by any amount ever. It’s a crock. This is economics.

And you can throw out “They’ve discounted a rate rise already.” (talking head economist on telly) while you’re at it.

Nope. No they have not. Never.

Everything changes always in the market. Debt’s where the action is. I want to buy bond brokers because they’ll be making shit out of the middle but I want to sell them cause they’re bond brokers and debt is shite.

I’m even scared of posh bonds. Has the American taxpayer got any money to back those foockers?

I’m thinking a nice hole in the back garden beside where my old boss who got me fired out of the markets would be if I’d figured a way to kill him without getting caught.

This is tin hat time and the Dow ain’t leading nuthin nohow.

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(1) "Debt’s where the action is."

Since this applies to the house market just as much as the stock market, and house prices are set by achievable debt levels, we wont see any housing action until the lenders actually tighten their mortgage lending standards. I haven't seen any sign yet.

(2) "Has the American taxpayer got any money to back those ...."

I dont think so. The US is broke, their dollars are just promises which can't be fulfilled.

(3) "This is tin hat time"

I agree so I'm 97+% invested in sterling now (I don't think the UK will go broke for another few decades). I personally believe cash is the asset to have in a debt-crisis. No-one will have any cash/credit to buy gold.

VMR.

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(This is now buried in another thread. It's important and it took me two hours to write so I'm posting it again. And I'm going to keep bumping it until everyone is embarrassed for me.)

Who told you that? 12-18 months? Ahha! You've been reading too many books. You sound like one of those Motley Foolers who read something and think it must be real. "Hey, stock markets go up 12% a year on average so if you just buy until you’re 314 years old you'll make a killing!"

Sorry Bulltra I'm not suggesting you're as naive (or, indeed, as thick) as a Motley Moron, but this is interesting. I believe it was the Deutsche Bank economist Clap von Trapp who first calculated that the stock market was 12-18 months ahead of the general economy. Unfortunately, his methodology was seriously flawed; you see, one of the hamsters he used to pull the little chariot he had his tea delivered on had a gammy leg. This completely threw von Trapp’s calculations.

He was later reported to have said on his death bed that "Eet vos ol zee bollsheet; I tell ya!"

And he was right.

The bond, or debt, markets are leading everything. Everything is about debt/credit/sovs/fundmangerspooing in pantz.

The stock market, and most certainly the Dow, is currently Patrick out of Spongebob Squarepants. It hasn’t got a fecking clue. Everybody is just waiting to see if the sub-prime-alt-A-what-the-hey is going to come out of the closet alive or dead.

Dead guys, It’s dead. It was hardly ever alive. Sub-prime is Weekend at Bernie’s down at the Investment Bankers Arms.

Sub-prime isn’t toxic. I’ve had a problem with that word and it got in the way of understanding this whole mess because this whole mess is very complex and difficult to understand. The word isn’t Toxic; it’s Zombie. This stuff isn’t just worse than junk, this stuff was never alive. It was worked with little pumps that inflated bits of it and every time it inflated someone would see that they had become richer for nothing more than sitting on their fat arrses and watching Eastenders in the house they bought because they wanted security, but now they’re property magnates cause women with big bums and gays (not that I…) with posh accents told them to borrow insanely because what other strategy is there when one wants to own?

This is why it all happened:

Some smarty-pants in the markets have been given software too powerful for their tiny minds to handle.

This whole thing would be a software glitch if we got to blame it on the software.

An awful lot of people are about to find out that not only have they not increased their wealth substantially, but they have been rogered seriously up the arrse (for where else would such a thing take place?) in lieu of the wealth that was supposed to happen.

“The meek have indeed inherited the earth” I wrote in a shitey, gelded, article for MoneyWeek and it stuck in my craw for I have never observed a single time in history when the little guy really did make out like a bandit. And it’s not about to happen now either.

Paulsen said yesterday: “blah, blah, no idea, blah, I saw Rubin do this and it worked for him, blah, blah will they find me out? blah, blah, what is sub-prime anyway… whzzat?”

These guys have no idea. We should be ashamed as a society that we actually believe these people.

I once wrote something about conductors and it was important. I postulated that the only people who can really tell the difference between a conductor and a kid-on artist are the people who can. To the rest of us they all look like guys waving their arms about. Rubin was a Treasury Secretary and Paulsen is a guy waving his arms about. Gordon Brown is a guy who used to get other people to wave his arms about but this time it’ll do him no good. We’ll all be on to him as soon as we all lose a bundle o’ money. That’s the evidence that people understand.

So Bulltra, again I flatter myself for believing I’m saying something deep. Something fundamental about economics. I wouldn’t want a few corny jokes to get in the way of a Nobel Prize now, would I?

I don’t know what’s supposed to lead what by how much and I don’t like Doctor Who much anyway. But you can bet the house (quick, before it’s too late) that the debt market is going to be slapping the stock markets around with a giant horsecock for quite a while.

It’s funny, today they all rushed into Treasuries and farted about with rates in the process. Tomorrow they’ll shit themselves when they get to thinking that Bush is such a bumpkin and Paulsen doesn’t know why they couldn’t have given him a UK Ambassador gig that maybe Treasuries are shite? What about gold; jeez, oil is scary, what about OPEC? They’ll announce more production just for a laugh and I’ll get killed, then Bush’ll nuke Iran and I’ll be out of the trade by the time that happens. What’s left? There’s no more room for any money in New Zealand and the Irish all wear top hats. If I put it in Japan it’ll just sit there like a Japanese Robbie Williams fan going crazy at a concert. If I put money into China I have to pay some git a fortune just to get it in and there’s about three trillion dollars chasing shares that represent three percent of a few crappy companies that’ll all end up bankrupt as soon as the last Chinese official liquidates his positions.

So, the Dow leads the market by 12-18 months eh? Well, my man, here’s my wad, put it in the Dow if you will for in eighteen months it’ll be leading everything else down a big black hole if I’m not mistaken.

Well, that doesn’t sound too good so how about put the money in ‘the market’ you know, the one that is led by the Dow by 12-18 months? Bloody hell, this is complicated. I wish I was an economist and I didn’t have to torture myself every time I wanted to dig a decent hole for my money.

Nothing ‘leads’ anything by any amount ever. It’s a crock. This is economics.

And you can throw out “They’ve discounted a rate rise already.” (talking head economist on telly) while you’re at it.

Nope. No they have not. Never.

Everything changes always in the market. Debt’s where the action is. I want to buy bond brokers because they’ll be making shit out of the middle but I want to sell them cause they’re bond brokers and debt is shite.

I’m even scared of posh bonds. Has the American taxpayer got any money to back those foockers?

I’m thinking a nice hole in the back garden beside where my old boss who got me fired out of the markets would be if I’d figured a way to kill him without getting caught.

This is tin hat time and the Dow ain’t leading nuthin nohow.

fab post, dstars. And your comment about Phil Spencer would appear to be accurate!

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How do they become support levels and what does that really mean?

When it keeps bouncing off a price that is taken to mean that buying interest exists around that level. If you take a chart and slide a ruler upwards you'll find the 'support levels'.

There are a number of reasons why there is something to this but the main one is that we talk about them. For example, if you buy futures you'd probably have a stoploss set somewhere and you'd probably set it below a support level (just to give it a chance).

When these levels break they do often seem to charge down quite a bit. Presumably people stick market shorts below thse levels as well.

The same goes for resistance on the upside.

Edited by dstars
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How do they become support levels and what does that really mean?

Whilst I haven't had a look at the dow techs today, I assume Sherwick has noticed a technical condition at or around 13400 (like a double bottom or a fib retracement) - indicating a point where buyers are happy to enter the market. Additionally support lines become resistance lines once the prices drops below them. The reverse is also true.

I hope that makes sense...

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I personally believe cash is the asset to have in a debt-crisis. No-one will have any cash/credit to buy gold.

I beleive M0 is THE place to be in crunch. The thing about Markets is to be short of what no one else will want. and have massive supplies of the thing everyone else wants. in a crunch everyone wants cash. how else will they pay the mortgage ? or purchase fire sale assets. not with gold but cash but everyone is paying down debt.....

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Adding to the market's recent struggles have been the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq's inability to find support above key technical levels of 13400, 1470 and 2580, respectively

http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview

No mention of the next level, possibly to frightening to contemplate.

Does seem to be dancing around 13350 though.

Edited by bleakhouse
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http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview

No mention of the next level, possibly to frightening to contemplate.

Does seem to be dancing around 13350 though.

Support levels don't provide much support in these types of situations. Nobody buys 'this' market with their own money and even other people's money traders will be standing aside.

Technical levels are good for rangebound or mildly trending markets but this is the night of the long knives now.

Bush came out and talked tripe and spooked them even further. Yeah, a moron without an axe to grind just told us everything was fine; let's buy.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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