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The Beginning Of The End

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I must buy this man a large drink.

Take him seriously folks and remember his quote on the BBC website.............THE BEGINNING OF THE END ........can't get much more bearish!!

The bond-market turmoil may turn out to be the beginning of the end

Robert Peston,

BBC business editor

Read Robert's analysis in full

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I must buy this man a large drink.

Take him seriously folks and remember his quote on the BBC website.............THE BEGINNING OF THE END ........can't get much more bearish!!

The bond-market turmoil may turn out to be the beginning of the end

Robert Peston,

BBC business editor

Read Robert's analysis in full

link please!

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I must buy this man a large drink.

Take him seriously folks and remember his quote on the BBC website.............THE BEGINNING OF THE END ........can't get much more bearish!!

The bond-market turmoil may turn out to be the beginning of the end

Robert Peston,

BBC business editor

Read Robert's analysis in full

Unbelievably this is the BBC's top story and it is a pretty good summary as well!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6918570.stm

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At least he's put his opinion out there. If he's wrong he'll probably get a pay rise seeing as the media seem to favour idiot economists.

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"
Worries that have been out there for the past couple of years are coming to a head right now," said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.

BBC quoting bears?????

All the poisons that have been lying in the mud are hatching out.................... :o

It will happen quite quickly now as the poison is spreading throughout the economy. THe bill for Gordon's "free lunch" just got slapped on our table.

Shame Hugh Laurie is not still alive as he would be the ideal speokesman for BBC news.

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BBC quoting bears?????

All the poisons that have been lying in the mud are hatching out.................... :o

*cheers*

This is a sit-com, and 'poisons in the mud' is your catch-phrase, RB!

It'd good to see you parodying yourself!

... Er, you are parodying yourself, aren't you? :)

Shame Hugh Laurie is not still alive as he would be the ideal speokesman for BBC news.

Hugh Laurie? When did he cease being alive?

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"
Worries that have been out there for the past couple of years are coming to a head right now," said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.

BBC quoting bears?????

All the poisons that have been lying in the mud are hatching out.................... :o

It will happen quite quickly now as the poison is spreading throughout the economy. THe bill for Gordon's "free lunch" just got slapped on our table.

Shame Hugh Laurie is not still alive as he would be the ideal speokesman for BBC news.

As per yesterday's thread-it's John Laurie, not Hugh! "We're doomed I tell ye, doooommmmedddd"

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Unbelievably this is the BBC's top story and it is a pretty good summary as well!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6918570.stm

"pretty good summary"!!???? IT IS CRAP.

When you read this stuff - http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm - "Analysis By Ben Richardson Business reporter, BBC News" - it makes me PUKE: -

"On Tuesday, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed that first time buyers borrow an average of 3.33 times their incomes to buy a home. Other measures show they are using 18.7% of their incomes to meet mortgage repayments."

3.33 times their incomes!!!!!! I mean --- give me a break.

If you calculate backwards -- the "average" price of a property is £200k - and in London £333k:

This means that the "average" income is £60.6K pa -- and in London - nearly £101K pa.

This is called "ANALYSIS"????? It is simply incredible how the BBC is allowed to get away with this complete BULLSH*T.

Edited by eric pebble

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As per yesterday's thread-it's John Laurie, not Hugh! "We're doomed I tell ye, doooommmmedddd"

Yes, John! What a fabulous character that man was and sooooooooooooo appropriate for the BBC these days.

Where's Gordon now that all the poisons are hatching out?*

______________

* This phrase was coined by actor Derek Jacobie in the series "I Clavdivs." Claudius knew he was going to be assasinated and set up a scenario that, after his death, the poisions would all hatch out and bring the Empire to a close to be replaced by his beloved Republic. The poisons did indeed all hatch out but Nero became emperor.

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"pretty good summary"!!???? IT IS CRAP.

When you read this stuff - http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm - "Analysis By Ben Richardson Business reporter, BBC News" - it makes me PUKE: -

"On Tuesday, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed that first time buyers borrow an average of 3.33 times their incomes to buy a home. Other measures show they are using 18.7% of their incomes to meet mortgage repayments."

3.33times!!!!!! I mean --- give me a break.

If you calculate backwards -- the "average" price of a property is £200k - and in London £333k:

This means that the "average" income is £60.6K pa -- and in London - nearly £101K pa.

This is called "ANALYSIS"????? It is simply incredible how the BBC is allowed to get away with this complete BULLSH*T.

Not sure which article you are quoting, I just found the one that I linked to a fairly plain analysis of the markets and why they were reacting in the way they are. I agree wherever you got your quotes from it is the usual drivel from the BBC, hence the surprise at the one I linked to.

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Not sure which article you are quoting, I just found the one that I linked to a fairly plain analysis of the markets and why they were reacting in the way they are. I agree wherever you got your quotes from it is the usual drivel from the BBC, hence the surprise at the one I linked to.

It's the one on the main Business page of the BBC website -

"Global markets continue to fall

European shares open sharply lower on the back of a global sell-off in global stock markets amid concern of rising rates.

Peston's picks: dismal days?

Q&A: Sub-prime lending

Are market bubbles set to blow? " --- THIS ONE - click on this [ http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm ]

- and read the utter CR*P. [see above].

Edited by eric pebble

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Guest AuntJess
"pretty good summary"!!???? IT IS CRAP.

When you read this stuff - http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm - "Analysis By Ben Richardson Business reporter, BBC News" - it makes me PUKE: -

"On Tuesday, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed that first time buyers borrow an average of 3.33 times their incomes to buy a home. Other measures show they are using 18.7% of their incomes to meet mortgage repayments."

3.33times!!!!!! I mean --- give me a break.

If you calculate backwards -- the "average" price of a property is £200k - and in London £333k:

This means that the "average" income is £60.6K pa -- and in London - nearly £101K pa.

This is called "ANALYSIS"????? It is simply incredible how the BBC is allowed to get away with this complete BULLSH*T.

They get away with it for TWO reasons:

Many see the Beeb as the Gospel truth.

The English are woefully inadequate in the " sums" dept. due I suspect to the ingress of calculators. For example, I go into a shop and buy several items and while the assistant is laboriously punching keys on the calc. I give them the total. They stare at me as tho' I had sprouted wings, often. Thing is, most of my contemporaries can do this, I ain't special in the mental arith. dept.

Most of us 'boomers' can do "Rifmatic" :lol:

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It's the one on the main Business page of the BBC website -

"Global markets continue to fall

European shares open sharply lower on the back of a global sell-off in global stock markets amid concern of rising rates.

Peston's picks: dismal days?

Q&A: Sub-prime lending

Are market bubbles set to blow? " --- THIS ONE - click on this [ http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm ]

Yep, that is more like the BBC we know!

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Did anyone hear Today this morning, 7.30ish (I think it was shortly before Thought For The Day for anyone willing to try Listen Again)? Evan Davies was co-presenting today.

A chap came on from a hedge fund and said (paraphrase slightly, was in the shower): "In the past people have borrowed money to invest in property to rent, this sort of investment is no longer viable and so..." :lol:

Evan gave his trademark nervous snigger but didn't disagree and let that passing remark stand. The "in studio" guy, a fund managing Bonham-Carter no less, didn't disagree either but discussed the stock markets repricing of risk, short-term volatility on the cards, not the end of the world though, reasonable fundamentals in the UK markets but keep an eye on the US etc. etc. To be honest I'm making him sound like a ramping VI but he was taking a balanced view and saying some where positioned correctly and some were not.

As regards housing its all getting rather blunt on the BBC of late. The remark above would have been leapt all over a few months ago, now it went without comment.

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"pretty good summary"!!???? IT IS CRAP.

When you read this stuff - http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm - "Analysis By Ben Richardson Business reporter, BBC News" - it makes me PUKE: -

"On Tuesday, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed that first time buyers borrow an average of 3.33 times their incomes to buy a home. Other measures show they are using 18.7% of their incomes to meet mortgage repayments."

3.33times!!!!!! I mean --- give me a break.

If you calculate backwards -- the "average" price of a property is £200k - and in London £333k:

This means that the "average" income is £60.6K pa -- and in London - nearly £101K pa.

This is called "ANALYSIS"????? It is simply incredible how the BBC is allowed to get away with this complete BULLSH*T.

Obviously they mean combined incomes, however I dont know any couple who have a combined income of over £100K in London, nothing like it actualy. You are right though, a load of crap, I have just pointed out in another thread to our rich friend Laurijohn how low paid the absolute vast majority of jobs are, and to top it off how many people are applying for each job, ie there is no shortage of applicants for even the lowest paid job. Here is an example of London wages and job applicants from the Reed site:

http://www.reed.co.uk/job/searchresults.as...20&ss=false

These are mid level central London jobs and wages, also you can see how many people have applied for each job, if you move to outer London the wages drop drasticaly, ave around £12K where I live.

Have a look at this one, only 418 applicants for such a big paying job:

Agency: Reed Lewisham

Job Location: Lewisham, South East

Salary: £12,500 - £16,000 per annum

Job Type: Permanent

Date: 27 Jul

Applications: 418

Ref: 11501380

Edited by steve99

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They get away with it for TWO reasons:

Many see the Beeb as the Gospel truth.

The English are woefully inadequate in the " sums" dept. due I suspect to the ingress of calculators. For example, I go into a shop and buy several items and while the assistant is laboriously punching keys on the calc. I give them the total. They stare at me as tho' I had sprouted wings, often. Thing is, most of my contemporaries can do this, I ain't special in the mental arith. dept.

Most of us 'boomers' can do "Rifmatic" :lol:

And - the crucial point that was discovered by the BBC in 2003, (IRONICALLY) [and NEVER referred to again!!] - by "The Money Programme" - is that the whole of the so-called "Housing Market" is rigged. In order to prop up the "market" at any cost - and at a CONSIDERABLE cost to all newcomers especially - the Moneylenders have been allowed to commit the greatest fraud of all time, i.e. Mortgage Fraud in the 21st Century.

It involves trillions and trillions, it has occurred in every street, in every hamlet, village, town and city right across the UK (let alone in other parts of the world too), - and has thereby artificially hiked up the "price" of property to staggering levels. It is systematic - and a blind eye is turned.....

"Mortgage customers 'urged to lie' --- Housebuyers are being encouraged to break the law in order to obtain huge mortgages..."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3222053.stm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressrele..._mortgage.shtml

Edited by eric pebble

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It's the one on the main Business page of the BBC website -

"Global markets continue to fall

European shares open sharply lower on the back of a global sell-off in global stock markets amid concern of rising rates.

Peston's picks: dismal days?

Q&A: Sub-prime lending

Are market bubbles set to blow? " --- THIS ONE - click on this [ http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6748803.stm ]

I think these average figures take into account deposits paid, which through inheritance, movng up the ladder etc must be pretty hefty. If anything it shows how much slack there is in the market and by that I mean old money where big deposts push the house prices up, combined with self cert, dodgy cert, BTL etc. Knowing the BBC they like to have followup stories based on any main stream ones so it will be interesting to see whta comes next.

On your averages this is where you are right. Sorry and I meant to add I would love to know out of all teh mortgages take n out in London ove rteh last 3 years with a 5% deposit what multiple of income that represents for teh first time buyer element if that is possible.

Based on average incomes for new buyers a 2 bed flat in london should be average £150 K I believe in todays market, it's more like £210K . Therefore we will see a crash and if this is combined with a credit crunch and unemployment rises this could range from bring down average prices for same 2 bed flat in london to £90k 3x 30k 1 x income as the other half has probably lost their job. This is exacly what happened in 1990. except the starting figures were lower and outside london the effect this time will be more extreme.

Edited by vfr

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Obviously they mean combined incomes, however I dont know any couple who have a combined income of over £100K in London, nothing like it actualy. You are right though, a load of crap, I have just pointed out in another thread to our rich friend Laurijohn how low paid the absolute vast majority of jobs are, and to top it off how many people are applying for each job, ie there is no shortage of applicants for even the lowest paid job. Here is an example of London wages and job applicants from the Reed site:

http://www.reed.co.uk/job/searchresults.as...20&ss=false

These are mid level central London jobs and wages, also you can see how many people have applied for each job, if you move to outer London the wages drop drasticaly, ave around £12K where I live.

Have a look at this one, only 418 applicants for such a big paying job:

Agency: Reed Lewisham

Job Location: Lewisham, South East

Salary: £12,500 - £16,000 per annum

Job Type: Permanent

Date: 27 Jul

Applications: 418

Ref: 11501380

Perhaps the number of applications is related to the percentage of the population who are qualified for such a job? Few people can be brain surgeons so not many would apply, despite salaries exceeding 100k. However probably 70% of the UK population (including illegal immigrants) could have a stab at this job, hence many applicants.

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I think these average figures take into account deposits paid, which through inheritance, movng up the ladder etc must be pretty hefty. If anything it shows how much slack there is in the market and by that I mean old money where big deposts push the house prices up, combined with self cert, dodgy cert, BTL etc. Knowing the BBC they like to have followup stories based on any main stream ones so it will be interesting to see whta comes next.

On your averages this is where you are right. Sorry and I meant to add I would love to know out of all teh mortgages take n out in London ove rteh last 3 years with a 5% deposit what multiple of income that represents for teh first time buyer element if that is possible.

Based on average incomes for new buyers a 2 bed flat in london should be average £150 K I believe in todays market, it's more like £210K . Therefore we will see a crash and if this is combined with a credit crunch and unemployment rises this could range from bring down average prices for same 2 bed flat in london to £90k 3x 30k 1 x income as the other half has probably lost their job. This is exacly what happened in 1990. except the starting figures were lower and outside london the effect this time will be more extreme.

Yes if the banks panic (and they always do at some point) we will go back to the traditiaonal 2xFirst wage plus 1x the second wage, and by this time those trying to sell and move up the ladder will find that their future deposit isnt what they thought it might be and we will definitly be back to the prices you mention. This of course will slowly spiral down over time as each successive seller will get a bit less and therefore have to make a smaller offer on the next property etc etc. Add all that to panic selling by the BTL brigade and forced selling by the banks and we will have a field day (if youve been a saver, that is)

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The actual link for the jobs where 418 have applied is here

www.reed.co.uk/job/Details.aspx?JobID=11501380&k=London&jto=False&s=66&st=5&jt=1&nr=100&set=2&SearchID=-2147483648&EpdId=-2147483648&sb=7&da=154&ss=False&ps=20&FromSector=1

Although there is more than one job, 418 is a heck of a lot for that very average salary.

Unemployment falling, my @rse.

Edited by The Last Bear

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Yes if the banks panic (and they always do at some point) we will go back to the traditiaonal 2xFirst wage plus 1x the second wage, and by this time those trying to sell and move up the ladder will find that their future deposit isnt what they thought it might be and we will definitly be back to the prices you mention. This of course will slowly spiral down over time as each successive seller will get a bit less and therefore have to make a smaller offer on the next property etc etc. Add all that to panic selling by the BTL brigade and forced selling by the banks and we will have a field day (if youve been a saver, that is)

I'm a saver having sold up 18 months ago.

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Obviously they mean combined incomes, however I dont know any couple who have a combined income of over £100K in London, nothing like it actualy. You are right though, a load of crap, I have just pointed out in another thread to our rich friend Laurijohn how low paid the absolute vast majority of jobs are, and to top it off how many people are applying for each job, ie there is no shortage of applicants for even the lowest paid job. Here is an example of London wages and job applicants from the Reed site:

http://www.reed.co.uk/job/searchresults.as...20&ss=false

These are mid level central London jobs and wages, also you can see how many people have applied for each job, if you move to outer London the wages drop drasticaly, ave around £12K where I live.

Have a look at this one, only 418 applicants for such a big paying job:

Agency: Reed Lewisham

Job Location: Lewisham, South East

Salary: £12,500 - £16,000 per annum

Job Type: Permanent

Date: 27 Jul

Applications: 418

Ref: 11501380

Totally agree these BBC figures are crap, especially as some people will innocently read that FTBs are using "18.7%" of their income on paying their mortgage and consider that's not bad at all and nothing to worry about, bigger multiples in our day etc, etc. Obviously the figure includes ridiculously low multiples for those with big incomes but buying smaller houses - and for those silver-spooners with a 50% deposit from mummy and daddy...

What would be far more sensible is to quote the multiples and percentages at the 75, 90, and 95 percentiles, or to quote the figures only for properties bought with !0% or less deposit (the real worls). It's this real-world sharp end of borrowing where shit hits the fan in a crash, the average is of almost no interest except as a through-time comparator.

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