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DrBob

Eureka Moment

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I had my EUREKA moment today. :o

You know the HPC is here when:

1. Real house prices are falling with Nationwide's seasonally-adjusted MoM HPI at 0.1% (annualised = 1.2%, compared with CPI 2.4%, wage inflation 3.3%, RPI 4.4%)

2. Interest rates are on their way up (inflation is above target, input prices are rising like crazy, and as soon as IRs go on hold the pound will tank driving inflation higher)

3. Mortgage lending is tightening (and credit spreads are widening as takeover deals and bond issues collapse on all sides)

4. The media is negative day after day (after day)

The sheeple will remain in denial until house prices show a few consequent national MoM nominal falls and media stories of negative equity become more widespread. Then be prepared for plenty of hopeful 'early recovery' claims.

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Cue: Hugh Laurie, Dad's Army:

I tell ye, its all over--we are doomed! :o

Q2 2007. ;)

I'm with you RB.

We have been seeing 'regional' market falls since Q2 (maybe Q1). But, the (media) mood has got increasingly bearish since we moved into Q3.

Its like salmon spawning season down here but this bear is still hungry. maybe I could finish it all off with some honey. yum. :P

Come the next hike by the BoE, people will be belting up to ride DrJ's Great Big Ball Buster...its gonna be a wild ride :lol:

Edited by DoctorJ

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Cue: Hugh Laurie, Dad's Army:

I tell ye, its all over--we are doomed! :o

Q2 2007. ;)

I think you'll find that Private Fraser was played by the late John Laurie

Hugh Laurie unfortunately, is still with us.

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Just to add to the bearishness, the FTSE 100 is down a further 50 points in the overnight trading. Tomorrow, and I'm being hesitant about saying this because I would hate to jinx it, could be bloody.

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Hugh Laurie was in Dad's Army?? :o

Yes, of course he was. He's the one on the far right, next to Captain Manwaring.

blackadder4_1.jpg

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Just to add to the bearishness, the FTSE 100 is down a further 50 points in the overnight trading. Tomorrow, and I'm being hesitant about saying this because I would hate to jinx it, could be bloody.

shame this isn't the property market - but its still fun to watch

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Q2 2007. ;)

Yup, 16th April I logged on to make my first ever post:

FTBs are leaving the table.

There is upwards pressure on interest rates, just as the effects of the previous hikes are beginning to be felt.

Repos are up, and credit is about to start tightening.

BTL is increasingly unprofitable.

And...

The media is turning.

It's fascinating to see how those same issues have moved on in the last three months:

You know the HPC is here when:

1. Real house prices are falling with Nationwide's seasonally-adjusted MoM HPI at 0.1% (annualised = 1.2%, compared with CPI 2.4%, wage inflation 3.3%, RPI 4.4%)

2. Interest rates are on their way up (inflation is above target, input prices are rising like crazy, and as soon as IRs go on hold the pound will tank driving inflation higher)

3. Mortgage lending is tightening (and credit spreads are widening as takeover deals and bond issues collapse on all sides)

4. The media is negative day after day (after day)

We bears have our HPC, but I'm increasingly thinking we might regret wishing for it. HPC rides a Black Horse.

Edited by Timm

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We bears have our HPC, but I'm increasingly thinking we might regret wishing for it. HPC rides a Black Horse. [Timm]

Anticipating is not the same as wishing. Whether people wish or hope for a HPC is irrelevant -- it will happen anyway.

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I think it's been a really interesting year so far.

At the start of 2007, I posted a poll on a completely unrelated site. Everyone was asking "What will 2007 bring?" and my poll was "Will 2007 see house prices fall?". Everyone said "No" (I think I was the only vote in favour).

Q1 2007 though there was a realisation that something was amiss. Not an HPC, but that there were serious problems in America, Ireland and Spain. Much of the news seemed to be "There are problems, but we're different."

Q2 2007 has seen a gradual shift in the perception. General acceptances of "The easy money is gone" and growing concern over fix rate mortgages. Again, no HPC but a growing level of concern.

Q3 is off to a good start. Monthly price rises are almost flat, and the negative media reporting seems to be gathering pace. The stock markets are showing jitters - again, it's not an HPC but there general mood seems to be becoming more bearish.

I predict that by the end of Q3, it will be plain to see that the crash is with us. It may not be major drops, but it will be obvious that prices aren't going to go back up anytime soon. Then I think Q4 will be the killer. It's a slow time for house sales anyway, and as people start to panic they'll begin to dump property on the market.

Can't wait for my Christmas present!

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We bears have our HPC, but I'm increasingly thinking we might regret wishing for it. HPC rides a Black Horse. [Timm]

Anticipating is not the same as wishing. Whether people wish or hope for a HPC is irrelevant -- it will happen anyway.

I agree. It will happen anyway. My point is that it will be part of much more serious problems, which no sane person would wish for.

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I agree. It will happen anyway. My point is that it will be part of much more serious problems, which no sane person would wish for.

I agree it could get very nasty. This country seems to increasingly have bouts of mass hysteria - Di's death, Fuel Crisis.

Frightening when you're on the outside.

I believe ordinary people have so little power now that when they get it in the forms above they get intoxicated on it.

Also, there is no social cohesion anymore and people are a lot more selsfish.

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I don't think many of us are wishing for financial meltdown (are we?) A correction (and that means nominal falls) in house prices would do...

This credit crunch will surely just lead to an unwinding of some over-exuberant valuations (stock market and asset) of the last couple of years. I think our financial system will remain intact, as it did in the dotcom crash. Remember, China and Japan still have billions (trillions?) of dollars in savings, which China at least will be keen to invest at the right price...

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
China and Japan still have billions (trillions?) of dollars in savings, which China at least will be keen to invest at the right price...

According to a News report last night China is investing £600 billion dollars of which billions is expected to be invested in the UK. Sounds great until the casualties start to mount.

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amen to both of you on this; gloating re. financial meltdown? :blink:

For the record.

For a long time I wished for an HPC so that I could trade up.

I now understand that crashes are caused by a collapse in fundamentals. Such a collapse would also cause unemployment, pension shortfalls and general economic hardship for many. This I very much do not wish for. However, I believe that collapse is now with us. Gloating could not be further from my mind.

Edited by Timm

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For the record.

For a long time I wished for an HPC so that I could trade up.

I now understand that crashes are caused by a collapse in fundamentals. Such a collapse would also cause unemployment, pension shortfalls and general economic hardship for many. This I very much do not wish for. However, I believe that collapse is now with us. Gloating could not be further from my mind.

TBH I've felt as though we've been staring over an abyss for a year or so, now we look as though we're finally 'falling in' the future looks scary. The upside is so much easier to predict (in some ways), the unchartered waters awaiting not so <_<

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
the uncharterd waters awaiting not so <_<

I have now charted which were uncharted waters, and the hidden reefs are now very clear. ;)

BTW can we have the old Avatar back as that was really you.

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I have now charted which were uncharted waters, and the hidden reefs are now very clear. ;)

BTW can we have the old Avatar back as that was really you.

Quite like the Patrick Bateman look TBH Charlie, but I reckon you're right, change and choice can be very over rated concepts ;)

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amen to both of you on this; gloating re. financial meltdown? :blink:

The psychology is a little complex. I am a pessimist by nature. Will I be glad to see a global financial meltdown?

Mostly, no.... I don't enjoy the thought of people suffering...

but...

A little part of my brain would say "I told you so" and feel vindicated that all my dire forebodings, taken so lightly by those I have discussed things with, were not stupid after all...

And another part would be pleased that I invested in gold and index-linked bonds when these were unfashionable, and resisted the fashionable temptation to load myself with debt in the property market...

Are such feelings really reprehensible?

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