DoctorJ Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Good day for property stocks so far :angry: Top 5 winners value change % British Land Co 1264.00 60.00 4.98 Persimmon 1124.00 46.00 4.27 Liberty International 1068.00 42.00 4.09 Land Securities Group 1681.00 62.00 3.83 Hammerson 1243.00 45.00 3.76 curses. I was hoping for a good day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strbear Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I'm going to go out on a limb and say this is the really important bit of news today http://www.ft.com/cms/s/cc25609c-3c10-11dc...00779fd2ac.html This is the first time the credit crunch is changing the commercial environment and I think thats important - DJIA will drop away on opening as fears for the crdit crunch increase - it could still be a black friday - shoot away SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home July 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks were poised to extend their biggest drop in five months on growing concern that takeovers will slow after Cadbury Schweppes Plc delayed the sale of its U.S. beverage unit.JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, fell for an eighth day. Constellation Energy Group Inc., the largest U.S. power marketer, declined after earnings missed analysts' estimates. Stock-index futures retreated after Cadbury Schweppes became the first company to delay a deal because of ``extreme volatility'' in debt markets. Investors are shunning risky assets amid losses spurred by record subprime mortgage defaults, forcing banks to take on at least $32 billion of debt they would have otherwise sold to investors. ``The bubble has been in private equity from the cheap financing and when the bubble bursts, there is going to be pain,'' said Tom Wirth, who manages $1.8 billion as senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust in Elmira, New York. ``There'll be continued volatility and downside pressure for the market.'' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wad Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Well, I guess that the discussion on this thread once again adds support to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Rather annoyingly, it does seem that it really is impossible to predict what direction the market will take today by simply observing the direction it took yesterday :angry:. Buying cheap assets and holding on to them for a decade or more (like Warren Buffet) does seem to be the only way. Still going to dump mine as soon as the market perks up though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Positive news: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6919277.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davros Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Well, I guess that the discussion on this thread once again adds support to the Efficient Market Hypothesis.Rather annoyingly, it does seem that it really is impossible to predict what direction the market will take today by simply observing the direction it took yesterday :angry:. Buying cheap assets and holding on to them for a decade or more (like Warren Buffet) does seem to be the only way. Still going to dump mine as soon as the market perks up though I'm not sure Warren Buffet would be an advocate of EMH. I know he's not a fan of techs, despite the evidence supporting it, but EMH suggests he's just lucky. No-one is that lucky are they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightiesgirly Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I'm not sure Warren Buffet would be an advocate of EMH. I know he's not a fan of techs, despite the evidence supporting it, but EMH suggests he's just lucky. No-one is that lucky are they? Voodoo economy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets get it right Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Positive news:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6919277.stm Believe that and you believe in fairies. The figures are made up to soothe the masses. 99.99% of people have a VI in everything looking rosy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Dow now south by 125 - I especially like that it is dropping after london has closed could make for a lot of uncertainty over the weekends papers..happy days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 -140 now - bit between their teeth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godless Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Just watched the NY SM close on BBC News 24 Business Report.At the bell there were 15 muppets standing on the stage with silly smiles on their faces, take it from me this is a sign of serious consequences for the DOW tmorrow. I was watching BBC business report last night and the news ticker stated the DOW down 149 pts not 311 or whatever it was, they misquote with the gold price too??? BBC cannot be trusted at all IMO... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 DOW's just fallen off its perch -187 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 (edited) DOW's just fallen off its perch -187 great friday night viewing must watch the news later to see if there are any traders jumping out of windows.... Edited July 27, 2007 by sign_of_the_times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strbear Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Its a 60 degree down dive - I expect they are looking forward to the final bell - but is bodes well for a Black Monday SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Positive news:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6919277.stm past performance is no guarantee of the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Its a 60 degree down dive - I expect they are looking forward to the final bell - but is bodes well for a Black MondaySB The more people there are on the stage with silly smiles and clapping at the bell denotes the DOW will fall further at the next trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightiesgirly Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 The more people there are on the stage with silly smiles and clapping at the bell denotes the DOW will fall further at the next trading. Flippin' well right yesterday Charlie ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strbear Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Well down 1.54% (208.1) on the day and over 5% on the week - not a bad week for bears! Here's to Monday! SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Flippin' well right yesterday Charlie ! When I can, I watch the final bell on their website and have observed the following. 1. Less people with a dressed up Disney Cartoon Character on stage shaking hands the DOW is going up. 2. As my last post, then the DOW will be heading down. Just a long term observation mind you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightiesgirly Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 When I can, I watch the final bell on their website and have observed the following.1. Less people with a dressed up Disney Cartoon Character on stage shaking hands the DOW is going up. 2. As my last post, then the DOW will be heading down. Just a long term observation mind you. I've got an overwhelming compulsion to check it out now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mew too Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 enjoy....or not, ouch! http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act...;menugroup=Home Not Just Another Dip The complete reversal of last week’s phony breakout together with the poor fundamentals associated with the deteriorating credit climate and impact on the real economy have combined to set up a potentially serious market decline going far beyond what we have seen to date. The housing problem has now extended well beyond the subprime mess into higher quality mortgages, home equity loans, the overall availability of credit and a softening economy. What is so puzzling is the failure by the markets to anticipate what was so clearly evident for all to see if they weren’t so busily denying the facts that were staring them in the face. Even today we noticed on bubble TV an organized attempt to brush the current dip off as just another minor correction in an ever rising market, an effort aided by Treasury Secretary Paulson’s soothing reassurances that everything was OK. But then again, since the Secretary is also Chairman of the so-called Plunge Protection Team, he was just doing his job. The main problem begins with the housing situation that continues to worsen with no end in sight. New single family house sales dropped another 6.6% in June and are down 21.4% over a year earlier. Median prices were down 1.3% for the month and 2.3% over a year ago. The level of sales is the lowest since June 2000 with the exception of March of this year. Inventories of new houses for sale amount to a bloated 7.8 months supply. June existing home sales were off 3.8% for the month and 14.2% for the year to the lowest level since November 2002. Median year-to-year prices were officially unchanged, but will have to come down to clear out inventories. Statements from home building company executives continue to paint an even bleaker picture of the situation than is shown by the numbers alone. The immediate shock to the market was sparked by statements made by Angelo Mozilo, chairman and CEO of Countrywide Financial, the nation’s largest home lender. Mozilo said that he expects "increasing challenging" housing and mortgage markets and doesn’t expect a recovery until 2009. He referred to escalating late payments and defaults on subprime loans that are spreading to higher quality segments of the market. The company’s earnings decline reflects higher loan loss provisions and write-downs of securities backed by prime home equity loans. The problem, he stated, was largely related to "piggy-back" loans taken out by people who couldn’t afford a large down payment and took out a second loan to cover all or part of the purchase price. Obviously, with house prices falling lenders may not recover anything if purchasers default and the sale of the house doesn’t exceed the price of the 1st mortgage. Deteriorating quality of home equity loans were also noted by other lenders such as Citigroup, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase. The problems in the mortgage market have had a severe impact on the credit markets where the high-yield market has basically dried up. Wall Street underwriters have cancelled or postponed billions of dollars of loan deals including among others LBOs for GM’s Allison Division, the Cerberus buyout of Chrysler, an Expedia loan to buy back its shares and a loan for an LBO of U.S. Foodservice. Chad Leat, co-head of Global Credit Markets at Citigroup, referring to the high-yield market, said that "for all intents and purposes the markets are closed right now." Overall, companies are attempting to raise about $200 billion in the next few months, mostly for LBOs. However, the weakening demand for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) is leading to far higher rates and more restrictive terms. Notably, CLOs have been the main buyers of LBO deals. A large number of the announced deals may still be done, but the underwriters will have to put up a lot of the cash. Already, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase have been forced to finance parts of at least five LBOs over the past few weeks. This is sure to dampen the number of future LBOs—and these have been a huge factor in driving stocks up over the past year. Contrary to the denials of many economists and strategists, the housing mess is already having an impact on the real economy. This can readily be seen in the slowdown in freight, a key leading indicator. UPS reported that growth in revenue and delivery volumes continue to slow, and that for second straight quarter there was no growth in volume. Burlington Northern Sante Fe reported lower freight volume in the 2nd quarter, particularly in consumer products and construction materials. The railroad’s chief marketing officer said that, based on conversation with retailers, he wasn’t counting on a significant peak shipping season for holiday goods this year. Freight carriers stated that weaker consumer spending has prompted retailers and other customers to delay the start of the peak shipping season. Economic consultant Global Insight is estimating consumer spending growth at an annualized rate of 1.2% in the 2nd quarter vs. 4.2% in the 1st. Auto sales in June were down to 15.6 million units from 16.3 in May. AutoNation, the country’s largest car dealer, puts the blame on housing. The leading indicators for June were down from a year earlier, signaling a weaker economy or recession ahead. In sum, with the technical situation in the market deteriorating, a housing bottom not in sight, the high-yield credit market in disarray and the economy slowing down, the conditions seem ripe for a major market decline ahead. Although every market downturn in the last four years has turned out to be a temporary dip, we think that it would be imprudent to assume that it will be the same this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 In sum, with the technical situation in the market deteriorating, a housing bottom not in sight, the high-yield credit market in disarray and the economy slowing down, the conditions seem ripe for a major market decline ahead. Although every market downturn in the last four years has turned out to be a temporary dip, we think that it would be imprudent to assume that it will be the same this time around. I have compared the 1987 SM crash with the position of the Markets today. The only this missing at present is high IRs. 6 Aug 9.8750 23 Oct 9.3750 So IMHO 6% plus could now spook the UK markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott666 Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 .......and here's a nice little follow up article along the same lines. Click With debt becoming more expensive, leveraged assets are less profitable or unprofitable to hold. So assets are sold and price falls. With the drop in price, more leveraged positions have to be liquidated. The vicious cycle feeds on itself until the debt is destroyed. This is what happened in the forced selling of positions to cover margin calls in the 1929 stock market crash. It is now manifesting itself in the foreclosures on U.S. real estate. As we reported in May 10th Credit Collapse, $1 Trillion dollars of ARM’s will be resetting to higher rates over the next 5 years. The margin calls are coming due.Couldn’t The Fed Prevent This Today? Common perception is that the Federal Reserve could somehow stave off the credit bust. Let’s take a look at their track record. Murray Rothbard, in the A History of Money and Banking in the United States describes the action of the Fed in 1931: “The Fed promptly went into an enormous binge of buying government securities, unprecedented at the time. The Fed purchased $1.1 Billion of government securities from the end of February to the end of July, raising its holdings to $1.8 Billion. The Fed, under Meyer, did its mightiest to inflate the money supply-yet despite its efforts, total bank reserves only rose by $212 million while the total money supply fell by $3 Billion.” Why wasn’t this successful? He continues: “The more that Hoover and the Fed tried to inflate, the more worried the market and the public became about the dollar, the more gold flowed out of banks, and the more deposits were redeemed for cash.” So the Federal Reserve can print money, but it cannot create credit or confidence. ‘Money’ is therefore hoarded, by either the public or the banks themselves (if they are concerned about an increase in redemptions). Night, night sleep tight folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPC Convert Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Median prices were down 1.3% for the month and 2.3% over a year ago. If thats the US HPC im going home - its boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashHorizon Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Median prices were down 1.3% for the month and 2.3% over a year ago.If thats the US HPC im going home - its boring. Read it carefully.. 1.3% for the MONTH! This crash is only just gaining momentum. This is obvious from the comparison between small YoY drop and large monthly drop. Even the most optomistic forecasters dont see an upturn until sometime in 2009. I'll let you get your calculator out! (Me thinks he might me going home never to return! - Well, never to return much anyway!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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