Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

Mortgage Approvals Crash

Recommended Posts

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/26072007/325/mortg...ll-sharply.html

Thursday July 26, 09:32 AM

Mortgage approvals fall sharply

LONDON (
Reuters
)
- The number of mortgages approved for home purchase fell 11 percent in June from a year earlier, a survey showed on Thursday, providing further evidence that the property market may be losing steam.
The British Bankers' Association said mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- fell to 75,318 last month from 85,006 in June last year.
The BBA revised up its earlier estimate for the rise in underlying net mortgage lending in June to 5.4 billion pounds from an original estimate of 5.1 billion pounds.
"Approval numbers for house purchase are
well down on this time last year
, suggesting that market demand may be reacting to higher mortgage costs," said David Dooks, director of statistics at the BBA.

Makes an otherwise dull and wet day rather pleasant. I'm off for a cuppa and 2 McVities to celebrate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/26072007/325/mortg...ll-sharply.html

Thursday July 26, 09:32 AM

Mortgage approvals fall sharply

LONDON (
Reuters
)
- The number of mortgages approved for home purchase fell 11 percent in June from a year earlier, a survey showed on Thursday, providing further evidence that the property market may be losing steam.
The British Bankers' Association said mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- fell to 75,318 last month from 85,006 in June last year.
The BBA revised up its earlier estimate for the rise in underlying net mortgage lending in June to 5.4 billion pounds from an original estimate of 5.1 billion pounds.
"Approval numbers for house purchase are
well down on this time last year
, suggesting that market demand may be reacting to higher mortgage costs," said David Dooks, director of statistics at the BBA.

Makes an otherwise dull and wet day rather pleasant. I'm off for a cuppa and 2 McVities to celebrate.

Mind you don't choke on that excessive 'fiat food' mate ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The British Bankers' Association said mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- fell to 75,318 last month from 85,006 in June last year.

Spline - any graph updates for us ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Spline - any graph updates for us ?

This is a very quick HPI plot, back-shifted by six months, and with the mortgage approvals correlations added in yellow (I’ve used the old model here, so you have to eyeball down a bit after about 2003). The new BBA approvals are not included, but they seem to be consistent with the developing trend, also Rightmove and Nationwide are starting to react as expected. B)

hpijuly2007annotze7.gif

Edited by spline

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is a very quick HPI plot, back-shifted by six months, and with the mortgage approvals correlations added in yellow (I’ve used the old model here, so you have to eyeball down a bit after about 2003). The new BBA approvals are not included, but they seem to be consistent with the developing trend, also Rightmove and Nationwide are starting to react as expected. B)

hpijuly2007annotze7.gif

Spline, any chance of a prediction for when we will see negative HPI?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Spline, any chance of a prediction for when we will see negative HPI?

Come on Spline, hurry up!

Jeez you just can't get the staff nowadays.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Spline, any chance of a prediction for when we will see negative HPI?

If approvals decrease at the same rate, it looks from the graph as though it would be Q4 YOY. Or next month MOM :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Come on Spline, hurry up!

Jeez you just can't get the staff nowadays.

Hi Tuffers, the mortgage approvals seem to leading the way quite nicely, and there’s even well defined and reasonably convincing peak. I’ll try and do some predictions when the BoE figures come out on Monday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.businessmoneynews.co.uk/ext/bm/....jsp?story=1609

Weaker mortgage approvals - subdued consumer credit

26 Jul 2007

June’s gross mortgage lending of £21.5bn, the highest figure ever, was a reflection of strong re-mortgaging activity. This was, however, only 5% higher than a year earlier, suggesting that in real terms, lending growth is slackening.

There were 193,850 mortgages approved (for all purposes) in June; 8% fewer than in June 2006, with an aggregate value of £23.1bn. The average loan approved for house purchase was £159,600, some 16% higher than a year earlier.

Underlying net mortgage lending (gross lending minus repayments and redemptions) rose by £5.4bn (revised from last week’s release), lower than May’s increase (£5.9bn) but in line with the recent average. The annual growth in net mortgage lending continued to stay around 14%.

Credit card borrowing fell by £0.1bn (net) in the month, while borrowing on personal loans and overdrafts rose by £0.1bn.

David Dooks, BBA director of statistics, said: “Although the trend in net mortgage lending is being maintained, approval numbers for house purchase are well down on this time last year, suggesting that market demand may be reacting to higher mortgage costs. Spending on credit cards was lower than at the same time last year, reflecting weaker retail sales but the reducing appetite for unsecured borrowing continues the pattern seen over the last two years.”

Mortgage Lending

When compared to June 2006, house purchase approvals were down 11% by number but up 3% by value; remortgaging approvals were down 1% by number and up 10% by value; while approvals for equity withdrawal were down 13% by number and 3% by value.

Consumer Credit

Spending on credit cards totalled £6,983mn in June; 4% less than in June 2006. After allowing for repayments and seasonal adjustment, underlying net lending decreased by £73m.

New lending on personal loans and overdrafts in June was 5% more than in June 2006 and after seasonal adjustment, loan and overdraft lending rose by £117m net.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thats only 2k down from last month, and still 10k above april... is this really all that bad?

Countrywide said last year was the worst year for 32 years last year.

And if we are 10% down on that it seems it could be that bad.

Affordable housing is on it's way, fingers crossed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/26072007/325/mortg...ll-sharply.html

Thursday July 26, 09:32 AM

Mortgage approvals fall sharply

LONDON (
Reuters
)
- The number of mortgages approved for home purchase fell 11 percent in June from a year earlier, a survey showed on Thursday, providing further evidence that the property market may be losing steam.
The British Bankers' Association said mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- fell to 75,318 last month from 85,006 in June last year.
The BBA revised up its earlier estimate for the rise in underlying net mortgage lending in June to 5.4 billion pounds from an original estimate of 5.1 billion pounds.
"Approval numbers for house purchase are
well down on this time last year
, suggesting that market demand may be reacting to higher mortgage costs," said David Dooks, director of statistics at the BBA.

Makes an otherwise dull and wet day rather pleasant. I'm off for a cuppa and 2 McVities to celebrate.

YOY, that is significant. No two ways about it.

As goes HPI-MEW goes the pound. It is looking more and more timely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 356 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.