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It Couldn't Happen Here.....

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http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ho...th-1044153.html

Until about 9 months ago, the Irish house market was in a runaway boom: You just can't lose money on property, prices only ever go up, we live on an Island, there is huge demand outstripping supply, there's mass immigration propping up the market ......

Sounds familiar? Now look at the way the Irish market is going.

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http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ho...th-1044153.html

Until about 9 months ago, the Irish house market was in a runaway boom: You just can't lose money on property, prices only ever go up, we live on an Island, there is huge demand outstripping supply, there's mass immigration propping up the market ......

Sounds familiar? Now look at the way the Irish market is going.

this is interesting:

The eight rate increases, from a low of 2pc, means that a home owner with a €300,000 mortgage over 30 years has seen repayments shoot up by €280 a month, from €1,215 to €1,495.

I wonder how many people can afford to pay that much in Ireland.

This article is screaming "it's all about sentiment".

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yes but no but yes but it could never happen in the uk, strong employment, massive undersupply, easy credit, population stupid as fvkc....

Exactly. They'll wake up when they're in negative equity. Increasingly negative equity. As dstars put it a while back, in a few years we'll be buying our houses from the banks.

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I was talking to an Irish friend, who loves mentioning the Irish Property Boom, and discussed parallels with the UK. I didn't really want to get into a debate, but mentioned Irish prices are higher because of the Euro, and how rates were far less. A blank expression then appeared...! This just sums up how much of a bubble it is, and shows how sentiment is the massive overriding factor.

Then his other friend visited from Ireland, and mentioned how prices were falling! Beautiful.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ho...th-1044153.html

Until about 9 months ago, the Irish house market was in a runaway boom: You just can't lose money on property, prices only ever go up, we live on an Island, there is huge demand outstripping supply, there's mass immigration propping up the market ......

Seriously though, does Ireland have mass immigration on the scale we have here?

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Seriously though, does Ireland have mass immigration on the scale we have here?

It's far far higher than in the UK as a percentage of the population.

Just to illustrate check out this news item from today's RTE

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0724/roma.html

"63 members of the Roma community who have been living at the Ballymun intersection of the M50 are due to be repatriated to Romania tomorrow.

Gardaí say the families left the camp voluntarily this morning.

38 adults and children chose to stay at the roundabout and slip road. They say they will fight any attempts to deport them"

.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme
Green Bear could probably point at exact figures for ROI but I think that many Poles came over to work in construction - I have seen a figure of about 110k migrant workers in a population of 1.6 million for NI.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/28d5d180-3a0b-11dc...00779fd2ac.html

This link points to Poles going back as conditions have improved.

Thanks for the link doccyboy

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Seriously though, does Ireland have mass immigration on the scale we have here?

In terms of raw volume - no. In terms of immigrants as a percentage of the native population, yes (maybe more so than GB).

However, seems that many of the immigrants to Ireland were short term economic migrants, planning to return back to Eastern Europe when the going got bad and the Irish money well ran out.

I'm not sure sure that this is the case in GB. Likely the ones with skills will return home as their markets develop but the low-skilled would fare better remaining in GB, given the hugely generous benefits structure and the fact that the NHS is a massive 'bonus' to have available to you. Free education for the kids as well - they'd be mad to head back East to either no social benefits or a really badly paid low-skill job.

However, the real thing of note is that exactly the same arguments were used in Ireland by bulls as to why the market would only ever go up and up. Even when things stalled, anyone expressing bearish sentiments was pounced upon (The Irish PM even suggested he didn't know why bears didn't just top themselves...). Now sentiment is on the change, bigtime. This is just the beginnning of the real crash there.

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http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ho...th-1044153.html

Until about 9 months ago, the Irish house market was in a runaway boom: You just can't lose money on property, prices only ever go up, we live on an Island, there is huge demand outstripping supply, there's mass immigration propping up the market ......

Sounds familiar? Now look at the way the Irish market is going.

Read the small print,( investment can go down as well as up)

People are brain washed into thinking houses always go up in price.

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