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stew

Next Months Ir Decision

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Hold, CPI figures wont be available to them i dont think but the quarterly report will be, 6-3 last month for the rise doesn't fill me with confidence and the CPI is coming down would want to see a wait or a rise in CPI for them to do it this month.

I hope they do though.

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I'd be astonished if they hiked again so quickly. Hope they do though. Even a single vote in the minutes for another rise is extremely bearish.

All the noise coming from the MPC lately has been to suggest that more hikes are coming, although I wouldn't expect a back-to-back at this stage. September looking likely though, depending on how quickly the CPI starts to move back up.

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Hold, CPI figures wont be available to them i dont think but the quarterly report will be, 6-3 last month for the rise doesn't fill me with confidence and the CPI is coming down would want to see a wait or a rise in CPI for them to do it this month.

I hope they do though.

Why won't they get a heads up of the figure this time?

I reckon a hold, but if the CPI is unchanged or up next month, then it must be odds on for a 1/4 pointer the month after.

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Ah the good old monthly IR debate has arrived.

I fear it will be a disappointing HOLD.

:(

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Ah the good old monthly IR debate has arrived.

I fear it will be a disappointing HOLD.

:(

It will be a cut. BOE will give the poor flooded homeowners something to cheer about.

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They will desperately want a hold, and what ever happens, it will be a close call.

However, I can't see how their inflation prediction will be 2% in two years time. Virtually, all their predictions have been wrong... They based their last hand on a fall in oil, yet it's back to near record highs. Also, they have massively underestimated essential price inflation, like food!

It will get to 6% in the next few months, but it's a close call for August.

Great example of fence sitting there Jason...

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Not much help either from LIBOR three month forward rate, it’s sitting around 5.9%, and adding a risk margin of 0.14 suggests very roughly a BoE base rate of about 5.76%.

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What is the general concensus about the next IR decisin on 2nd August?

If Merv blinks and holds it is because Great Crash 2 is already here and is about to unwind.

If he hikes we have a few more weeks to wait.

The currency markets are expecting a hike.

CBI are seeping in their trousers:

http://money.guardian.co.uk/businessnews/s...2133918,00.html

CBI asks Bank of England to hold off interest rate rise after sharp fall in factory orders
Larry "Lawrence" Elliott and Charlotte "Chuck" Harwood
Wednesday July 25, 2007
The Guardian

As for me, I am feeling quite bouyant.

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They will desperately want a hold, and what ever happens, it will be a close call.

However, I can't see how their inflation prediction will be 2% in two years time. Virtually, all their predictions have been wrong... They based their last hand on a fall in oil, yet it's back to near record highs. Also, they have massively underestimated essential price inflation, like food!

It will get to 6% in the next few months, but it's a close call for August.

Great example of fence sitting there Jason...

Core inflation was up last month. That doesn't even include food or fuel.

I think next month, hold. Raise in September and probably November. Serious housing pain in 2008.

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