Local Estate Agent Packs Up.

[RRP]

Here in the cheap end of Blackheath we are serviced by six EA's . One has just shut up shop last week. At a rough guess, based on the volume of mortgage approvals, we will be left with about four or possibly three at this rate.

"Jonnie come lately" was situated near a main bus rank. Another piece of hard evidence for all to view.

[Realistbear]

Mortgage apps plummet, EAs shutting up shop, unemployment figures rising, builders unable to move new homes, Haart's new listings growing by the hours.....

If it looks like a crash, sounds like a crash and behaves like a crash the probablility is that it is a crash.

Dropping mortgage applications and EAs shutting up shop are hard to improve on for a sign that the HPC is here. Now that it has come its a little scary because it does spell a rather nasty recession on the way.

Might be a good idea to emigrate for a few years and come back when its all over.

[RRP]

Mortgage apps plummet, EAs shutting up shop, unemployment figures rising, builders unable to move new homes, Haart's new listings growing by the hours.....

If it looks like a crash, sounds like a crash and behaves like a crash the probablility is that it is a crash.

Dropping mortgage applications and EAs shutting up shop are hard to improve on for a sign that the HPC is here.  Now that it has come its a little scary because it does spell a rather nasty recession on the way. 

Might be a good idea to emigrate for a few years and come back when its all over.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Afraid I am not in the position to do so. This must be serious consideration for some STR's. though.

[gone west]

Might be a good idea to emigrate for a few years and come back when its all over.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

More than one of us have done that already. Problem is that it could be quite global this time (more so than early 90's).

[Realistbear]

More than one of us have done that already. Problem is that it could be quite global this time (more so than early 90's).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are right. I am an ex-pat in California and we are just going into a downmarket (began in June 2004). The East coast is seeing cracks also with overpriced Massachusetts leading the way down. OZ is apparently dropping also. Todays thread from France show that they are also tanking with Paris off 20%! It is a world thing just as the IMF said back in the Spring of last year. We STR and are getting a measly 2.5% from a US bank--hoping Al gets rates moving! Pound too strong to convert to sterling and if the market hits the skid in March (likely in my view) the pound may have another "Black _____day."

BTW--even though we are getting a measly 2.5% on our house proceeds we worked out that we are making $8000 a month on a potentiall house purchase as that is the current rate of decline around here. We may come back to the UK so the same "earnings" apply.

[gone west]

Pound too strong to convert to sterling and if the market hits the skid in March (likely in my view) the pound may have another "Black _____day."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have moved a lot of my cash out of sterling for just this reason. It is becoming a bit of a "job" these days just to find a decent return for cash.

[Realistbear]

I have moved a lot of my cash out of sterling for just this reason. It is becoming a bit of a "job" these days just to find a decent return for cash.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Latest news in the US has a lot of Wall Street people worried. The DOW has given back just about all of last year's gains and it is getting uglier. Earnings are falling behind inflation as employers are cutting back. My wife works for the State of California and the Terminator has told everyone to expect pay freezes to continue along with hiring freezes. My daughter works for Pfizer and the axe is being weilded there also--Pfizer are the world's number 1 pharma company and a BIG bellweather for a big industry.

As Buffett said: right now invest in cash, some cash and also a little cash. (sic).

[nineteentwentynine]

Latest news in the US has a lot of Wall Street people worried.  The DOW has given back just about all of last year's gains and it is getting uglier.  Earnings are falling behind inflation as employers are cutting back.  My wife works for the State of California and the Terminator has told everyone to expect pay freezes to continue along with hiring freezes.  My daughter works for Pfizer and the axe is being weilded there also--Pfizer are the world's number 1 pharma company and a BIG bellweather for a big industry.

As Buffett said:  right now invest in cash, some cash and also a little cash. (sic).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, the so called "January effect" (how they go in January is how they go for the year) is looking ugly.

The last domino to fall into place would be trouble in China. Not many are expecting this but there has been cronic overinvestment in production. Where is the profit margin? The manufaturers are going to choke themselves. Added to this is the non capitalistic nature of the lending. Since govenment officials have a big say there are incentives to give sweet deals without taking into consideration things like Return on Investment....

That still leaves the year ending in 5 effect (2005 - same returns as 1995, 1985, 1975 1965...) . Who knows???

[Smarty2]

Here in the cheap end of Blackheath we are serviced by six EA's .  One has just shut up shop last week.  At a rough guess, based on the volume of mortgage approvals, we will be left with about four or possibly three at this rate. 

"Jonnie come lately" was situated near a main bus rank. Another piece of hard evidence for all to view.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm in MK. We had 15 EA introducers for Financial Services. 8 have closed since Xmas. Two have hit the press the others seem like they are waiting for a Spring boom??

[bubbleturbo]

The local Haart agent has shut down and are now operating out of another office a few miles away.

Not sure if there have been any redundacies but shows they are trying to cut overheads quickly.

We are getting lots of "chase up" calls trying to arrange for us to view overpriced tat.

6 or 9 months ago, you had to chase them.

[Realistbear]

The local Haart agent has shut down and are now operating out of another office a few miles away.

Not sure if there have been any redundacies but shows they are trying to cut overheads quickly.

We are getting lots of "chase up" calls trying to arrange for us to view overpriced tat.

6 or 9 months ago, you had to chase them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The HPI is over. The HPC begins.

[laurejon]

About time too there were far too many agents and it saturated the market causing big problems for the proffesional agents who had to compete with them.

No market should be so strong that six agents can open up shop next door to each other and still earn a living.

Take it for what it is, the market was oversaturated with agents.

No qualifacations required just one months deposit on the shop and a months rent in advance

A couple of pasting tables for office furniture and a 386 with a pirate copy of win95 and you are in business.

Add a couple of balls of string to hang the pictures you downloaded from rightmove to make it look like you are established in the front window and voila you are an estate agent.

[DaddyO]

About time too there were far too many agents and it saturated the market causing big problems for the proffesional agents who had to compete with them.

No market should be so strong that six agents can open up shop next door to each other and still earn a living.

Take it for what it is, the market was oversaturated with agents.

No qualifacations required just one months deposit on the shop and a months rent in advance

A couple of pasting tables for office furniture and a 386 with a pirate copy of win95 and you are in business.

Add a couple of balls of string to hang the pictures you downloaded from rightmove to make it look like you are established in the front window and voila you are an estate agent.

the problem (or solution) is that once the closures start, it would gain momentum and possibly lead to a HPC situation (fingers crossed).

[sneaky_snookems]

A very large famously Bullish building society is now opening late for mortgage approvals.

Since when did build societies have late night shopping?

Either they can't cope with demand during the office hours or they are starting to get desperate.

Emm I wonder which.

[laurejon]

Record profits yet again by the Banks one things for sure they are not losing any sleep about the illusive house price crash and for so long as that is the case neither should we.

We will know when the crash is due, it is when the Banks change the managers and move them all around the Branches.

They do this simply because in good times Banks like you to see their managers as friends of the family.........in bad times they dont want your personal relationships to get in the way of good 7 days notice to repay the debt and the following writ for bankruptcy.

[Realistbear]

the problem (or solution)  is that once the closures start, it would gain momentum and possibly lead to a HPC situation (fingers crossed).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Closing EAs is a powerful symbol. Just the idea of such a thing will depress the market even further. Its much about what people believe is happening and less about reality. Like Merv King said: house prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real.

If people start to see EAs shut down and Haarts new listings rise hourly the perception is: CRASH

And in the end perception=reality.

[Realistbear]

Record profits yet again by the Banks one things for sure they are not losing any sleep about the illusive house price crash and for so long as that is the case neither should we.

We will know when the crash is due, it is when the Banks change the managers and move them all around the Branches.

They do this simply because in good times Banks like you to see their managers as friends of the family.........in bad times they dont want your personal relationships to get in the way of good 7 days notice to repay the debt and the following writ for bankruptcy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is it true that the big banks remained conservative in their lending practices--3 or 4 times income? Whereas the MB's (Building Societies etc) bet the farm on ever rising equity to protect themselves against default?

[laurejon]

I think you could well be right.

C&G (LLoyds) are a right bunch to get a mortgage from. Very strict.

Abbey Nat are extremely er..............flexible as are the Halifax. The work on the basis that you show them how you can repay the debt and the ratios are ignored.

None the less I dont think anyone in Banking is overly concerned with it. We have moved into an era whereby debt is the new economy.

[Yandros]

Record profits yet again by the Banks one things for sure they are not losing any sleep about the illusive house price crash and for so long as that is the case neither should we.

We will know when the crash is due, it is when the Banks change the managers and move them all around the Branches.

They do this simply because in good times Banks like you to see their managers as friends of the family.........in bad times they dont want your personal relationships to get in the way of good 7 days notice to repay the debt and the following writ for bankruptcy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, that change of tune from the Halifax was interesting

lets see now..

Prices are rising!

Prices are rising!

Prices are rising!

OMG 92% of FTBs are priced out of the market!

Not so much a change of direction - more like a handbrake turn!

Either their marketing dept has totally lost the plot, or they've got a problem.

[laurejon]

OMG 92% of FTBs are priced out of the market!

Or maybe they are just angling for a cut in the base lending rate and the abolition of stamp duty.

Maybe they think that by voicing the concerns of the people they will become the peoples bank and get the peoples vote.

Its about business, if they truly thought that was a real issue they would not be making that statement as they have shareholders to contend with.

What they did is ensure that many potential BTL'ers got off the fence began searching for properties as the FTBers need somewhere to rent in the meantime.

[Pudniw]

Halifax has closed where I live in North Yorkshire.

[Realistbear]

I think you could well be right.

C&G (LLoyds) are a right bunch to get a mortgage from. Very strict.

Abbey Nat are extremely er..............flexible as are the Halifax. The work on the basis that you show them how you can repay the debt and the ratios are ignored.

None the less I dont think anyone in Banking is overly concerned with it. We have moved into an era whereby debt is the new economy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Certainly true from the US perspective--hence the record deficit. Problem is I think Al is having to re-think the debt bubble because it is placing strains on the world system--the EU is screamning because it can no longer export profitably. US too dependent on Asian credit is another problem. Debt without production ultimately implodes. 1929 was the classic example. (I belive Japan's problem was production without consumption? All imbalances leads to corrections at some point).