Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
ianbeale

Nationwide On Thursday

Recommended Posts

With all weve have had to cheer about for the last few months and all the anecdotal evidence of a slowdown will we finally see this translate into some red figures on this popular index.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The great house price crash that never was continues apace.

I'm beginning to think now that we made a big mistake and are being punished harshly for it. The prospect of a crash seems more distant than ever.

edit: It seems Gordon IS an evil genius after all. Fair f*cks to him.

Edited by Smell the Fear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest The_Oldie
With all weve have had to cheer about for the last few months and all the anecdotal evidence of a slowdown will we finally see this translate into some red figures on this popular index.

Not if they can help it, the lenders will wriggle and spin to delay having to report falls for as long as they possibly can.

The prospect of a crash seems more distant than ever.

Strange you should say that at this time, it seems to be getting much closer to me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it will be positive, and Haliwide will be positive until Autumn.

Currently, their index is based on mortgage deals, and it is not unreasonable to assume most buying is occuring where price are still going up (because they're buying); so there is a bias weighting to those areas, keeping HPI more positive. Obviously, they don't measure houses that don't sell to even it out.

Also, I think you will need at least a few months of obvious national price falls for the index to go negative on a monthly basis. My example of the Halifax manipulating the monthly figures to show positive monthly HPI clearly demonstrates how the VIs will manipulate their statistics to keep showing positive HPI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't look like there are many bears on here, a bear is someone who believes prices will go down not up!

Why not fess up like I did, admit that you are bulls who believe prices will rise?

Just because you WANT prices to fall, it doesn't mean you BELIEVE they will fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Doesn't look like there are many bears on here, a bear is someone who believes prices will go down not up!

Why not fess up like I did, admit that you are bulls who believe prices will rise?

Just because you WANT prices to fall, it doesn't mean you BELIEVE they will fall.

Expect the worst, hope for the best I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Doesn't look like there are many bears on here, a bear is someone who believes prices will go down not up!

Why not fess up like I did, admit that you are bulls who believe prices will rise?

Just because you WANT prices to fall, it doesn't mean you BELIEVE they will fall.

Look, I'll let you off because you're having a bad day.

I'm a bear not because houses are falling, but rather that they will fall in the medium term. I have time and plenty of earning power so I personally can wait.

From the data I have, I believe house prices will start to stagnate from about November. FWIW.

Now stop throwing out the toys and have a beer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From the data I have, I believe house prices will start to stagnate from about November. FWIW.

What data do you have? Or do you mean the general bits'n'bobs on this site?

Peter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some regional MoM negative. Not enough for anyone apart from RB to get excited. The only thing that was ever going to stop this market was a credit crunch: the inability of the imprudent to take on further debt.

It's coming.

But not this month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What data do you have? Or do you mean the general bits'n'bobs on this site?

Peter.

Yes, just those general bits and bobs and a change in sentiment on the street. It's the lowest I can ever remember it. But it'll take many months for that sentiment drop to show up in HP indices. Which will give the BOE scope to raise IRs.

I warned at the beginning of this year, that the crash wouldn't happen in 2007. Now I'm confident enough that it's coming, but it's at least half a year away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What's the market expectation ?

+0.5 MoM, +10.6 YoY (from 1.1 / 11.1)

We'll get red in next month's Rightmove figures, but it'll push YoY up, it's to do with them not seasonally adjusting...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...13-18400452.htm

Tomorrow will bring further signals on the UK housing market: the Nationwide building society is expected to report house prices slowed to a monthly rise of 0.5 pct in July from June, while the British Bankers' Association is expected to reveal mortgage approvals cooled in June after a rebound in May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Doesn't look like there are many bears on here, a bear is someone who believes prices will go down not up!

Why not fess up like I did, admit that you are bulls who believe prices will rise?

Just because you WANT prices to fall, it doesn't mean you BELIEVE they will fall.

Am a bear but voted groundhog day. On the ground near us asking prices are dropping (not collapsing mind) - but not enough to trigger sales - therefore think there will be a lag before this shows up. Also we have enough mansions on sale that could easily skew the figures as volumes drop at the lower end.

So figures will self-select and make me feel glum again (only made worse as I shall have to update my tracker graph against forecast) - desperately waiting for red........ :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Expect the worst, hope for the best I think.

Thats right. A true pessimist will never suffer from a disappointment.

I expect my car to break down.

I know my PC will stop working again soon.

House prices are already falling.

The world economy will collapse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Currently, their index is based on mortgage deals, and it is not unreasonable to assume most buying is occuring where price are still going up (because they're buying); so there is a bias weighting to those areas, keeping HPI more positive. Obviously, they don't measure houses that don't sell to even it out.

Interesting, I'd never really thought about that before . . . makes sense :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's coming.

But not this month.

The end of the world is nigh!

You'll be right one day and then you can tell us all how you predicted it in advance.

My personal BTL property plan is to wait until the prices of stables collapse so I can pre-purchase the 12 most luxurious and best located ones. Once I've cornered the market all I will have to do is to await the horses of the Apocalypse to make a killing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am getting worried about you, are you bipolar or something. You seem to swing from uber bull to uber bear in seconds

Could be just the fact that he is now in the process of buying house,always seems to have an effect on ones outlook.Myself, being a raging pessimist,it would actually have the reverse effect.As a Bear with no property I trumped all the Bulls with a prediction of 8% HPI for the UK for 2007 on Jason's prognosticator(but zero growth for Q4) which is looking like a good bet.But if I were to buy a property this autumn I will probably be predicting minus 10% for 2008.

To be honest I can't understand why self-interest seems to interfere with people's judgement.

As for the Nationwide stats,I reckon the August figures will not be good judging by their pessimism for the rest of the year.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting, I'd never really thought about that before . . . makes sense :)

Quite.

You will always find House Price Surveys are biased to the upside, so when they come out with figures like prices only fell 18% in the last crash (or whatever it was) you know if you looked for a bargain at that time you will get way more than 18% off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 350 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.