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Guest Winnie

Are We Into Pre-crash Radio Silence?

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Guest Winnie

I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

What is concerning me more than HPC (signs definitely coming together slowly) is the blind denial and INSANITY of the global financial markets. They are seemingly run by whipper-snapper danger-seekers snorting infinite cocaine. How many "you must learn, grasshopper" speeches, comments and articles from economists and wise retired bankers can they scoff at?

IMHO, Yvette and all that stuff is totally irrelevant against the economic crash around the corner. This and perhaps only this will crash credit markets and turn the bankers and foreigners out of their inflated London homes, and only when we shatter this particularly sacred cow, will things fall....... :(

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I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

What is concerning me more than HPC (signs definitely coming together slowly) is the blind denial and INSANITY of the global financial markets. They are seemingly run by whipper-snapper danger-seekers snorting infinite cocaine. How many "you must learn, grasshopper" speeches, comments and articles from economists and wise retired bankers can they scoff at?

IMHO, Yvette and all that stuff is totally irrelevant against the economic crash around the corner. This and perhaps only this will crash credit markets and turn the bankers and foreigners out of their inflated London homes, and only when we shatter this particularly sacred cow, will things fall....... :(

Yeah. But the Bulls are getting increasingly riled up. Somethings poking the hornets nest.

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I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

What is concerning me more than HPC (signs definitely coming together slowly) is the blind denial and INSANITY of the global financial markets. They are seemingly run by whipper-snapper danger-seekers snorting infinite cocaine. How many "you must learn, grasshopper" speeches, comments and articles from economists and wise retired bankers can they scoff at?

IMHO, Yvette and all that stuff is totally irrelevant against the economic crash around the corner. This and perhaps only this will crash credit markets and turn the bankers and foreigners out of their inflated London homes, and only when we shatter this particularly sacred cow, will things fall....... :(

Just to cheer you up, Winnie, I was speaking to a client yesterday and he bought a newbuild flat (to live in) last year and now wants to sell as he has a new girlfriend and is moving in with her. Apparently he hasn't had a single viewing in six months. Three of the flats on the estate have been repossessed and the price they are selling for now is lower than the price he paid.

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I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

I know what you mean. I only discovered this site a few months ago when I was trying to decide whether to buy again or rent when I sold my house (forced sale as split up with ex) and I'm getting the same feeling. Glad I chose to rent though - that feeling would be even worse had I bought (not that I would be lurking on HPC if I had I think!). I am finding now though if I try and discuss the situation with people that they're getting angrier as they try to assemble their arguments for why it's not going to pop - panic? Just hoping my sister doesn't suffer too much - she's just bought a house in the Midlands on pretty much 100% mortgage... :unsure:

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Guest Winnie
Just to cheer you up, Winnie, I was speaking to a client yesterday and he bought a newbuild flat (to live in) last year and now wants to sell as he has a new girlfriend and is moving in with her. Apparently he hasn't had a single viewing in six months. Three of the flats on the estate have been repossessed and the price they are selling for now is lower than the price he paid.

Thanks Tuffers. Cheered me up.

So did this:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2127841.ece

Basically some insider chat from the VIP (CIP now, apparently "Commercially Important Person is the new acronym du jour ;) ) seats at Lords...

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I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

Unfortunately it has felt like this for years. The only difference is that the house around the corner that I looked at in 2004 has gone from £230k to £350k.

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Unfortunately it has felt like this for years. The only difference is that the house around the corner that I looked at in 2004 has gone from £230k to £350k.

I sometimes wonder if everyone on this site (and I include myself) is depressive. Psychologists have this notion of "self-serving bias", where people generally have completely unrealistic views of their abilities and achievements. For example, when you do well in an exam you put it down to your superior intelligence, but when you do badly you blame it on external factors like poor teaching, illness and so on. I'm sure that this must be very important in the financial markets: if you happen to be managing a fund which is making huge profits then you're really going to feel that this is entirely due to your astounding powers rather than (more likely) just good luck due to random market fluctuations.

Anyway, I'm sure I've seen research that suggests that the problem with depressive people is that this bias is much less powerful than in "normal" people, so that their view of the world is more realistic than that of others. I wonder if this is what's happening with the people on hpc.co.uk? I started to think that house prices were becoming ridiculous where I am about four years ago. They've probably doubled again since then, and if I sit down and really think about it then I find I truly can't believe some of the prices that I see. However, there are still plenty of people about who don't think there's anything strange about this at all, and expect it to keep on going forever. Unfortunately this attitude has helped many of them have made huge amounts of money while I'm just sitting here feeling poorer and poorer.

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Guest d23
I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

What is concerning me more than HPC (signs definitely coming together slowly) is the blind denial and INSANITY of the global financial markets. They are seemingly run by whipper-snapper danger-seekers snorting infinite cocaine. How many "you must learn, grasshopper" speeches, comments and articles from economists and wise retired bankers can they scoff at?

IMHO, Yvette and all that stuff is totally irrelevant against the economic crash around the corner. This and perhaps only this will crash credit markets and turn the bankers and foreigners out of their inflated London homes, and only when we shatter this particularly sacred cow, will things fall....... :(

I wouldn't worry about it too much; it's obvious this can't continue

I'm long past the point of letting it wind me up so much and am just patiently waiting for the eventual / inevitable correction and trying not to let what I want impact on what I expect to happen or read too much into every bit of property related news that comes up. I've been renting since I left home 17 years ago and am expecting to rent for at least another 4 or 5 (another year at least for any meaningful falls in London and another 3 or 4 for me not to be 'catching a falling knife'). During this time I hope to avoid losing my job, continue saving and hope rents don't go up too much.

For what it's worth I do think your decision to STR in Wandsworth 2 years ago will be vindicated eventually but with 28% HPI there since then you might be having to wait a fair while yet.

Edited by d23

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I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

What is concerning me more than HPC (signs definitely coming together slowly) is the blind denial and INSANITY of the global financial markets. They are seemingly run by whipper-snapper danger-seekers snorting infinite cocaine. How many "you must learn, grasshopper" speeches, comments and articles from economists and wise retired bankers can they scoff at?

IMHO, Yvette and all that stuff is totally irrelevant against the economic crash around the corner. This and perhaps only this will crash credit markets and turn the bankers and foreigners out of their inflated London homes, and only when we shatter this particularly sacred cow, will things fall....... :(

your joined date says differently...

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Guest Winnie
your joined date says differently...

I was a tentative voyeur (aka Guest) for three years.!

Anyway, to d23, well remembered, STR Wandsworth, but reinvested the money and it feels like a more stable track. Had 16 years equity on the place. Last two years have seen steep rises, yes, but i drove past the other day (Tonsleys if you know the spot) and I fail to comprehend how a 2 bed subsidence and damp ridden terraced shack tucked away within the one way system, can now be worth over £600k!

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Guest Popalot
I sometimes wonder if everyone on this site (and I include myself) is depressive. Psychologists have this notion of "self-serving bias", where people generally have completely unrealistic views of their abilities and achievements. CUE: CITY BANKERS! For example, when you do well in an exam you put it down to your superior intelligence, but when you do badly you blame it on external factors like poor teaching, illness and so on. I'm sure that this must be very important in the financial markets: if you happen to be managing a fund which is making huge profits then you're really going to feel that this is entirely due to your astounding powers rather than (more likely) just good luck due to random market fluctuations.

Anyway, I'm sure I've seen research that suggests that the problem with depressive people is that this bias is much less powerful than in "normal" people, so that their view of the world is more realistic than that of others. I wonder if this is what's happening with the people on hpc.co.uk? I started to think that house prices were becoming ridiculous where I am about four years ago. They've probably doubled again since then, and if I sit down and really think about it then I find I truly can't believe some of the prices that I see. However, there are still plenty of people about who don't think there's anything strange about this at all, and expect it to keep on going forever. Unfortunately this attitude has helped many of them have made huge amounts of money while I'm just sitting here feeling poorer and poorer.

Scunnered - I have though this too. Cognitive dissonance - reworking the facts to fit what you want them to tell you is a trait which anthropologists track back to our survival strategies in the Savannah.......

It is a sheeple trait. Needs to be for survival of species. Leaders/ individuals are prepared to think away from the pack and be more realistic - HPC folk!

The way I try to explain it to my Mum is that a pint of milk, a loaf of bread, a new car...yes they all go up but they remain grounded in a context of affordabilty. How can a set of old floorboards and some virtual wattle and daub (esp 19th century London terraces) be suddenly so mega-inflated. It is like a very unnatural fast swelling carbuncle on the economic landscape....lancing required but it will also, if left, by the laws of nature and reason have to burst itself.... I think this is how most of us bears think. We don't kid ourselves or bluff....and that way we do not have any unpleasant surprises.

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I sometimes wonder if everyone on this site (and I include myself) is depressive.

Oh totally. Well OK not "everyone" as its rude to stereotype ;). But yeah ive never seen such a collection of miserable pessimists in all my days!

I was a tentative voyeur (aka Guest) for three years.!

See - look how prevalent the paranoia is. That poster above is too blinkered to consider someone might actually read without posting or could have even set up another account!

Edited by Orbital

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The majority of the increase in house prices can be explained by 60 consecutive quarters of economic growth and historically low interest rates.

As long as interest rates stay below 8% and economic growth continues you won't see any significant falls in house prices.

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Guest Popalot
The majority of the increase in house prices can be explained by 60 consecutive quarters of economic growth and historically low interest rates.

As long as interest rates stay below 8% and economic growth continues you won't see any significant falls in house prices.

Sorry mate, but this ignores the fact that the economic growth has been 60% HPI and the rest spurious finacial instruments.....

It is not the absolute interest rate numbers but the percentage increases which count - ie the fixed interest folk soon to face 50% plus repayment hikes. :rolleyes:

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Guest X-QUORK
But yeah ive never seen such a collection of miserable pessimists in all my days!

Bulls see bears as pessimists for some reason. Actually, we feel optimistic that their will be a correction in house prices, allowing people to buy houses without being shackled to debt until their death.

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Guest The_Oldie
But yeah ive never seen such a collection of miserable pessimists in all my days!

If the so called pessimism upsets you, you know what to do!

Actually, I am optimistic that this madness will soon be over, an economy can not grow on ever increasing debt.

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Leaders/ individuals are prepared to think away from the pack and be more realistic - HPC folk!

That's more like it: a positive take on things! However, I find myself wondering if this isn't this itself an example of self-serving bias: we may be a bunch of miserable gits, but at least we're miserable gits with the truth on our side. That's the trouble with my way of thinking: once you start there's no way out.

Assuming that we are right about things, what's the pay-off? If the market does crash then those who haven't been sucked into it will be spared a lifetime of debt, but there's some danger that the fallout will have bad consequences for everyone if it causes wider economic problems. At least we'll have the satisfaction of being vindicated, and I suppose we'll have to blame our leaders. Maybe we need to be governed by pessimists who'll keep a lid on irrational exuberance. I wonder what the correct term for this would be? Depressocracy? Pessimocracy?

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If the so called pessimism upsets you, you know what to do!

That "pessimism" obviously got a bit too much for Orbitroll after the last IR hike. Obviously things are cheery enough again for him to return with his insidious hit-and-run trolling.

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Guest X-QUORK
It does give a skewed view, but that is OK as long as read in context of other opinions.

Much in the same way as Nationwide, Halifax, and Rightmove do with their "forecasts".

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'The night is always darkest before the dawn'

I am an optimist, I have a VI in continued HPI every 1% increase adds £4k to my net worth. But of course it doesn't. It adds £4k to my net worth if I sell my property for the asking price now.

The HPC has lost so much credibility over the years as people advocated a HPC with none of the fundamentals needed.

Now we have the IR rises with more to come.

Now we have the bad press with more to come.

Soon we will have the credit tightening which will take the fuel from the fire.

I want a HPC for a few reasons

1) a return to normality 2.5 joint income lending restored

2) Gordon Brown's emperor's clothes revealed

3) Greedy property speculators being brought down to earth

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I have to admit I am getting adrenaline fatigue after 4 years of loking on this fantastic reassuring site every day. the shame is it is now when it is all about to really happen that I am getting a sense of despair. But if I pull myself back to reality I think we are going through that wierd phase of silence and disinformation you get before implosion.

What is concerning me more than HPC (signs definitely coming together slowly) is the blind denial and INSANITY of the global financial markets. They are seemingly run by whipper-snapper danger-seekers snorting infinite cocaine. How many "you must learn, grasshopper" speeches, comments and articles from economists and wise retired bankers can they scoff at?

IMHO, Yvette and all that stuff is totally irrelevant against the economic crash around the corner. This and perhaps only this will crash credit markets and turn the bankers and foreigners out of their inflated London homes, and only when we shatter this particularly sacred cow, will things fall....... :(

I have justified my decision not to get back into the market in the last 6 months as two properties I have looked at 200K and 245K have both dropped respectively the former to 174K. I believe this sold recently for maybe 170K (sold in 2005 for 195K) and the latter has dropped to 225K. (Sold 2003 180K). Presently my cash from my previous sale is gaining some nice interest in the bank. I am watching and waiting as prices drop and doing my research. No urgency I remembered the last crash its deja vu all over again.

Deja Vu 1988, london prices will never drop, financial jobs,bonuses, immigration, top city in the world, houses too expensive must commute from Doncaster, need 3 people to buy into a house, booming economy, houses unaffordable in the South East. I can't think of anything that you hear today that you didn't hear then. Except the high speculators in the market. As after 1988 it was the appartment market that went first deja vu. The next sign is developments having problems selling and developments becoming incomplete or going bust. It doesn't happen overnight.

It still boggles me after the last crash that they build too many appartments as this is what happened last time an oversupply and these crashed thus dragging everything else down with it. For alot of people on this forum I guess will be there first crash. Imagine panic buying during the boom, you will think nothing of paying an additional 30K to 40K to get the property well panic selling is in reverse, the sellers can't sleep and in alot of cases just want to bail out. This is how you get 30K to 40K reductions overnight. having experienced the Greed side you are about to witness the Fear side.

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On Sunday, and nursing a quite terrible hangover I had the misfortune of being stuck in a supermarket queue between two BLT leeches who were discussing whether they'd managed to rent the properties out etc. Being not in the most amiable frame of mind (and rather put out about the rudeness of their conversation across me) I glared at them both and sneered something like "yeah and when they put taxes up and outlaw owning several properties you'll all be stuffed" They clearly looked at me like I was an escaped lunatic before continuing their conversation but this also made me question whether this site is making me a bit odd!

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash
Bulls see bears as pessimists for some reason. Actually, we feel optimistic that their will be a correction in house prices, allowing people to buy houses without being shackled to debt until their death.

I agree those are good sentiments but did it occur to you that people may also be interested in accuracy in interpreting what's going on rather than the spinning from the bearish angle?

As the OP states this site has been a reassuring place to come for THE LAST 4 YEARS!

This is a great site with a lot of interesting theories and useful info and 'common sense'

but what has really happened to UK property prices over the last 4 years compared to what bears were saying?

Over that 4 years say there was a balanced article but some bear only posted the bearish comments from it then that is potentially misleading and probably inaccurate and of course may appear pessimistic (especially to someone who was buying a house or was thinking of buying)

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