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JB1981

House Price Crash

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I am neither a bull or a bear.

I want to start an honest topic where people describe what chance there is of a house price crash, by how much the market will crash by, what areas will be hit the most and whether they are a bull or a bear and whether they are home-owners, buy-to letters, estate agents or renters.

I want to also ask whether their comments are backed up by research or are just their own personal views

For people's information, I am a homeowner, as I bought a modern and spacious 2-bed flat in 2005 in Sutton, Surrey. I paid £140k, and the same is now worth £180k. I am 26 years old, work in the City on a good salary, my mortgage is on the 5-year fixed deal at 4.99% and is a repayment mortgage, and takes up approx. 22% of my take home pay. I have no outstanding loans, apart from my mortgage, and live a very comfortable life, with a £300.00 per month pension plan and £10k savings.

I look forward to hearing from you.

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I am neither a bull or a bear.

I want to start an honest topic where people describe what chance there is of a house price crash, by how much the market will crash by, what areas will be hit the most and whether they are a bull or a bear and whether they are home-owners, buy-to letters, estate agents or renters.

I want to also ask whether their comments are backed up by research or are just their own personal views

For people's information, I am a homeowner, as I bought a modern and spacious 2-bed flat in 2005 in Sutton, Surrey. I paid £140k, and the same is now worth £180k. I am 26 years old, work in the City on a good salary, my mortgage is on the 5-year fixed deal at 4.99% and is a repayment mortgage, and takes up approx. 22% of my take home pay. I have no outstanding loans, apart from my mortgage, and live a very comfortable life, with a £300.00 per month pension plan and £10k savings.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Always difficult to predict the future but......... they may be a slight drawback of up to 5% in a couple of years but then i see prices rising again. I think prices will double over the next 10 years because of a lack of supply of housing coming to the market

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I am neither a bull or a bear.

What are you then a fence sitter? I would say that the very fact you're on here and have taken the trouble to register suggests bearish leanings :) Be careful next stop is ridicule from your mates ah no that's stage two :) No outright hostility from your mates now!

Mark.

PS

I dont know where to begin with your post questions but for my two pence hapenny

Chance of = Guaranteed

Crash By = 50% depending on area

Areas = All of UK

I am = A big cuddly BEAR

House Owner = I dont own a home. I rent in Dubai and live at my sisters when I am UK side. I will never pay 400 grand for a poxy 4 bed house when I can buy a chataus in France and 200 acre farms in Canada for the same money!

I have done that much research and read that many posts my head has exploded.

Edited by Soul Reaver

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Chance of = It has to.

Crash By = 15% wherever I want to buy no doubt; 50% in sucky places

Areas = whole of the UK

I am = A bear

Not a House Owner = I had one, couldn't afford to pay the bills due to changing circumstances/p155-poor pay, so sold it and moved to where there are (I hope) jobs and houses. In a position to pay cash for any 2-bed house where I am, looking to buy a 1-bed at some point after I've got a job and know where I need to be.

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Chance of = Guaranteed

Crash By = 2010, reports of small drops in press hiding actual figures, 2010 25% drop in areas

Areas = All of UK, north less effected, london and large cities (liverpool, leeds, manchester) and flats

I am = A wild bear

House Owner = I've split up with my ex she owns the home, I'm a first time buyer serial renter till 2010 no matter what the masses say I should do. I can't believe how many people in the pub have given my advice on the housing market.. oh u should buy now! it's a no brainer! When I try to repeat the information given on this site (badly i might add) they just look blank. Comments like 'the government won't let it happen' are common... dear me

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Chance of = Guaranteed

Crash By = Starting now in places, but will continue for several years. Expect 50% by the bottom.

Areas = All of UK, areas where they've built flats particularly so.

I am = A teddy bear

House Owner = Renting in the north east. 27 years old, on a salary of £30k. Could afford to buy if I wanted to, but am unprepared to pay silly money.

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Chance= Guaranteed. What goes up must come down. NowThenAgain. etc.

When= It's started already but we'll see the YoY indexes negative by year end.

Amount= 20% to 50% depending on area.

Areas= All UK possibly less London depending on global economic health.

HomeOwner= Yes. Bought a flat where I live in 2003. Have always counted on it ultimately being worth less than I paid and 50% of current value. No mortgage!

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash

Chance of = Maybe as market seems rediculously high - depending on IR's, employment levels, wage levels, ease of borrowing

Crash By = 20% depending on area (maybe more if economy is very bad or high IR's)

Areas = All of UK

I am = Was a bear but now Neither (because HPI continued despite imminent crash predictions)

House Owner = Yes studio flat and I'd like to trade up if possible. I do some BTL as a result of letting my previous abodes rather than selling when I had work-relocation (originally did this as I was not sure if/when I'd need to return)

It's my own personal view (but I read a report in the Mail today saying property is over-valued by 16% according to Ernst & Young) - I'm now naturally cautious about 'imminent' crash predictions and I'm waiting to see how high IR's go and the reaction to that

I also wonder what constitutes a crash after all that HPI - We'll have to wait & see

Edited by Yeahbutnocrash

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Chance of = Very high, but nature and extent will vary significantly by region and property type.

Crash By = A downturn is starting already. Outside London I see it gathering pace quickly as mortgage resets and increases in the cost of living kick in over the next few months.

Areas = All of the UK will eventually see significant HP reductions, but there will be big variations. Areas with a large proportion of recently built flats and/or a downturn in local employment will be hit hard. Towns with more larger properties, longer-term residents and major recession-proof employers (e.g. public sector) will survive better.

I am = A bear, but conscious that I have a VI in an HPC and therefore try to understand the bulls' arguments. However, I am a professional historian (i.e. a university lecturer in modern history), and all the factors in the current HPI cycle which have historical precedents indicate that HPs are way above long-term sustainable levels and that a correction will come sooner or later. For the factors that don't have easy-to-compare precedents (e.g. the scale of recent immigration, or the MEW phenomenon), I can't find any arguments which convince me that these will avert a correction in the long-term.

House Owner = No. The current HPI spiral began while I was completing a PhD. It took me a year and a half after that to find a career track job with a decent salary, by which time property prices had gone higher than I could responsibly afford. A one-bedroom flat in the area where I currently rent goes for 5 to 6 times my salary. I've now saved £30k to put on a deposit, but feel that it would be economic suicide to even contemplate buying now, given that (i) never in the last few centuries have property prices at so many multiples above household income been sustained, and (ii) the sort of property I'd be in the market to buy - an inner-city flat - looks likely to be hit the hardest by the impending correction. So I'm renting (thankfully from a fantastic, conscientious and honest landlord, who is a professional property manager, not a BTLer), and sitting tight.

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I am neither a bull or a bear.

I want to start an honest topic where people describe what chance there is of a house price crash, by how much the market will crash by, what areas will be hit the most and whether they are a bull or a bear and whether they are home-owners, buy-to letters, estate agents or renters.

I want to also ask whether their comments are backed up by research or are just their own personal views

For people's information, I am a homeowner, as I bought a modern and spacious 2-bed flat in 2005 in Sutton, Surrey. I paid £140k, and the same is now worth £180k. I am 26 years old, work in the City on a good salary, my mortgage is on the 5-year fixed deal at 4.99% and is a repayment mortgage, and takes up approx. 22% of my take home pay. I have no outstanding loans, apart from my mortgage, and live a very comfortable life, with a £300.00 per month pension plan and £10k savings.

I look forward to hearing from you.

looks a little flatter than that according to home.co.uk, the selling price of flat have only risen by 6% since 2005, did you get a 20% discount or you done alot of work on it? the average flat in sutton sells for 174k, up from an average of 164 in 05

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2007

Edited by moosetea

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chance of - happeneing now

crash by - down to 2002 levels

areas - all of UK

bear

homeowner - bought in 1997 I have an IO mortgage backed by an ISA with £80k owing on a £400k(not for long) property.

I want a HPC to bring some normality to the market and let FTBs back onto the property ladder. My next jump up the ladder means another £250k borrowing. after a market correction that jump will be more like £125k

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chance = 100%

falls = 40% - 60% depending on area.

When they come to analyze the crash in 2015, they will see it started properly in a 40 yard stretch of street, centered on Clitoris Van Dong's house in south London.

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Chance of = Very guaranteed

Crash By = 40-50% depending on area

Areas = All of UK

I am = Not impressed by fools who can't see the bigger picture.

House Owner = I don't own a home and luckily live in my relatives place rent free.

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If house prices don't crash I'll eat my hat.

I'm a renter, been renting since I started working,

don't really have any major problems with renting.

The OP must be on £50k+ for a 5% repayment mortgage

to only take 22% of take home. The implication being houses

are still affordable (to people like me), therefore there will

be no crash.

It works on averages though, if the average person can't

afford to buy, then the average price must come down,

or the banks just continue to lend more and more into infinity.

Shouldn't you expect to comfortably be able to afford

an actual house if you've done that well with your career.

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Chance of - Guaranteed.

Crash by - 20-25% depending on area.

Areas - All

I am - Bear.

House owner (Spain) - 4 bed terrace on a Spanish community + cough cough a 2 bed investment flat in the tourist area (ouch!). Luckily both properties owned by me and not the bank!

I'm currently trying to sell the flat but the market here is completely dead. I believe the UK is on the verge of entering the same type of market conditions - disbelief followed by desperation.

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Chance of - Guaranteed at some stage, but who knows when?

Crash by - 25% in some areas, perversely I think London will still continue to increase at YOY 10% through any crash

Areas - All except London

I am - Neither

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2-bed flat in 2005 in Sutton, Surrey

I would estimate a fall of the order of 40% from the price paid to the bottom of the trough.

This is based on the liklihood that Great Crash 2 will be greater than its predecessor, Great Crash 1 which took down prices in the Southeast by approximately 20-30% from 1989-1996.

This time is a little different. There has been excessive building of flats and BTL type properties which are now flooding the market in the SE region. I have been tracking findaproperty.com since February and this company are specilaists in the SE and London area in particular. If you examine the growth trend in raw supply data you get some idea of the extent of over-supply and how this has been impacting prices in the bottom end of the market. The numbers can fluctuate wildly from day to day and even from hour to hour but it gives you an idea of the general trend in rapidly rising supply numbers:

Findaproperty.com total availability
2007
Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents* 17th January
Search 266,562 properties for sale and rent from 5,288 estate agents 17th February
Search 283,092 properties for sale and rent from 5,469 estate agents 17th March
Search 306,042 properties for sale and rent from 5,673 estate agents 23rd April
Search 311,107 properties for sale and rent from 5,776 estate agents 2nd May
Search 353,654 properties for sale and rent from 6,214 estate agents 20th June
371,091 as of 19th July
*According to Findaproperty, a new multiple branch agent was signed up in February. The wide variations in the number of EAs reporting is reflecting multiple branches within an EA organization reporting in with increasing numbers of available property. The large swings in the number of agent reporting are also due to individual policies of each EA signed up with Findaproperty. Some EAs report all new listings through one branch and others leave reporting to the individual branch. Thus, the figures are an indication of increasing supply only and are not an indication of more or less business per agent.

According to estate agents themselves the market is becoming very "subdued" with fewer people looking as confidence "tumbles." To wit:

http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle...Key%3dNews.Home

Estate agents report subdued market

Email An enemy
Published: 12:38 Monday 23 July 2007
Higher interest rates are beginning to have an effect on the housing market which was ‘subdued’ in June, according to the latest figures from the National Association of Estate Agents..../
‘It appears that consumer confidence has taken a tumble and individuals are tightening their belts with the prospect of future interest rate rises just around the corner.

If EAs are admitting that the market is becoming gloomy the liklihood is that it is becoming extremely gloomy!

My advice: get out while you can. If a drop of 40% will cause you pain, STR and buy back after the crash has laid waste to current "values." You may pick up a bargain of more than 40% off as reposession rates will soon be hitting the roofs, as it were, given that mortgage resets are beginning this Autumn for 2,000,000 people who bought in on low teaser rates that are now facing 100% increases and more in their IR.

Bottom line: we are now in a bear market.

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chance = 100%

falls = 40% - 60% depending on area.

When they come to analyze the crash in 2015, they will see it started properly in a 40 yard stretch of street, centered on Clitoris Van Dong's house in south London.

you are so unnecessarily rude to people sometimes. it's very offensive and objectionable to read. haven't you heard of netiquette?

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Chance of a crash - 100%, but only when confidence evaporates amongst the general public

Falls - 40-50%

Areas - Everywhere except possibly the top end of the London & SE market - these are vanity purchases by people beyond wealthy.

I am - A bear!

Mrs Yogi & I live with our kids in a very humble 3-bed semi with a small mortgage. We would like to move up but are not prepared to take on an extra £100k of debt just to get another bedroom and a bigger garden.

Instead, we've got an allotment and I'm converting the loft!

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you are so unnecessarily rude to people sometimes. it's very offensive and objectionable to read. haven't you heard of netiquette?

yes. An expert in the field advises me to tell you to ****** off, pumpkinhead.

Edited by PropertyGuru

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I am a bear. I see a House Price slump of ~30% over 2-3 years. I would also not be surprised if the Sock Market did the same. It's just hard to see where the gains are going to come from. Certainly not earnings growth!

DAMN! And I just went out and bought some new socks, too!

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Chance of - ABSOLUTE

Crash by - 50% to 65%

Areas - UK and worldwide.

Current HPI is based on nothing but empty credit and will eventually face unavoidable correction.

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Always difficult to predict the future but......... they may be a slight drawback of up to 5% in a couple of years but then i see prices rising again. I think prices will double over the next 10 years because of a lack of supply of housing coming to the market

DGL - I cannot wait until you have your 'eureka' mooment and accept that this baby is a lot more complicated than simply supply of housing coming to the market

ps - i see the thread you started got moved to the troll-sub forum after was it was becoming so redundant even rover workers had better prospects

anyway back to the question, worst hit area of the UK will be NI by a country mile, the rest will suffer though up to 30% falls over 2-3 years followed by a period of stagnation (in my humblest opinion)*

*crystal ball territory though

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