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“first They Ignore You, Then They Laugh At You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win.”

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I have been tracking the HPC argument on this quote and i would say we are well into stage three now..

About a year ago everyone was laughing at me. The people laughing has now started to tail off and now i am on the recieving end of snappy comments and being told that it will not be good for anyone.

What do you think

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I have been tracking the HPC argument on this quote and i would say we are well into stage three now..

About a year ago everyone was laughing at me. The people laughing has now started to tail off and now i am on the recieving end of snappy comments and being told that it will not be good for anyone.

What do you think

I think that the amount of commercial VI trolling on here suggests you are bang right. :)

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I have been tracking the HPC argument on this quote and i would say we are well into stage three now..

About a year ago everyone was laughing at me. The people laughing has now started to tail off and now i am on the recieving end of snappy comments and being told that it will not be good for anyone.

What do you think

oh yes. I am a doom-monger now. Not a fool anymore.

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I dunno, I am still getting derision all the time for my views and am totally in the minority of everyone I know in Brighton! House prices only ever go up, I am stupid for not buying and could have made 50K every year on a place down here, blah blah blah.

This ignores the fact that I can't actually afford the mortgage in the first place regardless of what the supposed capital gains may be!

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Guest Popalot

I am getting scowls and worried looks. Unfortunately a few still say "the Government won't let it happen". My fear is that Brown will try to pull some stunt which will create an artificial sense of HPI again. The pre-budget report is coming early this year - October. Maybe it will contain a measure to tackle BTL tax relief. On the other hand it might be a clumsy FTB incentiviser or a reduction in stamp duty.......... The muppets in this country will turn even a hint of relief into good news and we will be back to Aug 2005.

However...yes, we are definitely in the fight stage, and this may mean that nothing GB can do will swoing sentiment back. <_<

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People seem to derive their sense of self worth from the value of their homes.

Although you can put up all the rational arguments in the world as to why high house prices are a bad thing for the country and individuals, people like to feel they are worth a big number.

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Although you can put up all the rational arguments in the world as to why high house prices are a bad thing for the country and individuals, people like to feel they are worth a big number.

Won't seem quite as rosy if they find them self worth a big negative number...

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There are some seriously well off people in Esher and surrounding areas, some of whom go to our daughter's school.

When I tell them our tale of STR, we tend to get 2 responses:

"Sounds like a sensible thing to do at the moment"

and:

"People I know in the City are talking about a 40% drop"

I don't think that is any of those stages mentioned above, but then these aren't your usual sheeple, and they are of an age to remember 1989. ;)

They are also not in the "Govt won't let it happen" camp, probably because we have a labour government and everyone around here is a dyed in the wool Tory.

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Unfortunately a few still say "the Government won't let it happen". My fear is that Brown will try to pull some stunt which will create an artificial sense of HPI again. The pre-budget report is coming early this year - October. Maybe it will contain a measure to tackle BTL tax relief. <_<

I get the feeling that all the talk of new social housing ( dont think it will happen in reality but thats something else ) may be the trigger for falls, or rather what everyone in hindsight calls the trigger when the inevitable happens. Supply and demand would dictate that more housing, cheaper than current market prices, would reduce market price?

Oh yeah, I forgot, the government wouldnt let it happen.

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Unfortunately a few still say "the Government won't let it happen". My fear is that Brown will try to pull some stunt which will create an artificial sense of HPI again. The pre-budget report is coming early this year - October. Maybe it will contain a measure to tackle BTL tax relief. <_<

I get the feeling that all the talk of new social housing ( dont think it will happen in reality but thats something else ) may be the trigger for falls, or rather what everyone in hindsight calls the trigger when the inevitable happens. Supply and demand would dictate that more housing, cheaper than current market prices, would reduce market price?

Oh yeah, I forgot, the government wouldnt let it happen.

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I am getting scowls and worried looks. Unfortunately a few still say "the Government won't let it happen". My fear is that Brown will try to pull some stunt which will create an artificial sense of HPI again.

Well there could be some truth in that, you've got a guy in N0 10 who will do all he can to stay there. I reckon Brown will attempt to prop this pyramid [and the banking industries profits up] with TAXPAYER MONEY being used as a loan on FTB homes. This will be exposed to any correction, and any input in the scheme which the banks make will not be exposed to loss.

Your government is spending billions of TAXPAYERS MONEY on wars that pad out the profits of the oil industry. And as part of the Industrial Military Complex[your governments real masters] The World Bankers profits will be padded in the same manner.

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Totally true. A year or so ago I had a motrgage broker telling me 'the market will never crash, Brown has manged it too well and knows exactly what he's doing!!', Then I had a friend of mine a few months ago say ' Prices cant drop, it will ruin too many people! They've gotta stay high'. Now people are starting to say corrections are a must. when pure blind faith runs out, all they are left with is the truth that has been there all along underneath the cheap credit and 10% yoy gains!

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I'd say I'm fairly firmly at number three. I still have a young colleague at number 2 (he laughs) but now I have a friend at number 4 (I win). The sad thing is this latter guy only bought 6 months ago (Dulwich, London) and although he says asking prices have gone up £30k in that time, and that he himself would sell up, his other half is having none of it!

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oh yes. I am a doom-monger now. Not a fool anymore.

6 month ago everyone thought I was mad, but now there seem to be quite a few more 'mad' people at my workplace and elsewhere

Anyone else notice how bullish joe's round the office are not so sure of their argument any more? The old VI spin gets posed more as a question, not a mantra. No one is laughing anymore, even the most diehard bulls I know are staring to question their logic

Edited by Sonic the Hedge Fund

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Totally true. A year or so ago I had a motrgage broker telling me 'the market will never crash, Brown has manged it too well and knows exactly what he's doing!!', Then I had a friend of mine a few months ago say ' Prices cant drop, it will ruin too many people! They've gotta stay high'. Now people are starting to say corrections are a must. when pure blind faith runs out, all they are left with is the truth that has been there all along underneath the cheap credit and 10% yoy gains!

People just don't want to look like idiots now that the market is going to be crushed, after all their crowing about how much skill it took them to buy at the right time and how HPI has made them rich. :blink:

Fools and their money............ & all that. :rolleyes:

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Guest Shedfish

following the US and Irish housing slumps, the IR hikes and inflation talk, the subprime mess, and the occasional hedge fund popping, my tinfoil hat seems less visible to some previously openly derisive friends. lets hope they don't also hold me personally responsible for all the ills in the world...

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following the US and Irish housing slumps, the IR hikes and inflation talk, the subprime mess, and the occasional hedge fund popping, my tinfoil hat seems less visible to some previously openly derisive friends. lets hope they don't also hold me personally responsible for all the ills in the world...

When they start saying, 'but you wanted it to happen so you could be proved right' that's when you know you were right all along

Edited by Sonic the Hedge Fund

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When the subject crops up nowadays I feel much less like a cornered animal. Mind you, I have also learnt to be a bit more circumspect in discussing it.

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People seem to derive their sense of self worth from the value of their homes.

Although you can put up all the rational arguments in the world as to why high house prices are a bad thing for the country and individuals, people like to feel they are worth a big number.

Quite Right...

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When they start saying, 'but you wanted it to happen so you could be proved right' that's when you know you were right all along

This is of course the old "talking the market down" ploy, whereby people who see the writing on the wall, are blamed for it when it happens. VIs will do that in about a year, although that will soon get forgotten.

Another one I like is that the die hard bulls will change the tone slightly, tacking on at the end "over the long term".

That however, is acknowledging that you are right.

It is often followed of course with a comment that it will be the right time to buy very shortly, if not right now, before prices shoot back up again even higher than before.

I lived through this twaddle last time.

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....a few still say "the Government won't let it happen".
"Govt won't let it happen" camp
Oh yeah, I forgot, the government wouldnt let it happen.

The answer to that is to look at them in a very strange way and ask them do they believe in conspiracy theories.

The majority will laugh and say 'no - dont be stupid'.

Then ask them in a whisper 'But I thought you said the govt control house prices? Do you think they control the price of anything else? Cars? Food? DVDs?'

At this point they will try desperately to get themselves out of the 'nutter' fraternity but wont have another excuse for HPs not falling.

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This is of course the old "talking the market down" ploy, whereby people who see the writing on the wall, are blamed for it when it happens. VIs will do that in about a year, although that will soon get forgotten.

Another one I like is that the die hard bulls will change the tone slightly, tacking on at the end "over the long term".

That however, is acknowledging that you are right.

It is often followed of course with a comment that it will be the right time to buy very shortly, if not right now, before prices shoot back up again even higher than before.

I lived through this twaddle last time.

I also remember all this from last time around, (god I'm getting old :unsure: ). What made me smile was recently when I sold my house, the agent said to me, "will you be looking to buy as well", I said "no, I'm going to rent for a while, I have a feeling that prices have peaked and are going to fall". He gave me a knowing look and said in a tone like he was passing me some inside information, "yes, but don't wait too long to get back on the ladder, maybe six months" then gave me a nod like he had just told me some EA secret.

Yeah right, I thought to my self whilst I said Oh ok, thanks.

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I do wonder sometimes if a number of members on this board aren't a little threatening in their delivery.

Most house price conversations I have are pretty genial, even with BTLers and in laws. There is one guy at work who just (for some reason) gives me grief about it. At the last christmas dinner, I had most of the table laughing at my views on housing (I hadn't even brought it up). Good fun was had by all, and I played along with it for comedy affect.

Anyway last week we were out having lunch and the subject was brought up by this guy. (I never start conversations about House Prices. I do enough of it here). He started mocking me for my interest rate predictions (which are pretty darn accurate this year).

There were no laughs this time. A lot of moaning and worrying and complaining then followed.

Fear is definately settling in.

Remember, sentiment is the most leading factor we have.

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Another one I like is that the die hard bulls will change the tone slightly, tacking on at the end "over the long term".

That however, is acknowledging that you are right.

I can't explain how annoyed that argument makes me, oooh over the long term it'll all be ok, well yes, but why should I fund your progress now for an illusion of a standard of living that is well above what you can probably actually afford, in return for a standard of living that is almost certainly below yours when you started out? (given a relative wage comparison)

Or put more crudely, telling me that if i wait long enough I'll be ok will not make me happy about helping you crap on me in the mean time so you can have unsustainable gains.

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