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Real estate prices (and rents) collapsed in Singapore following the Asian financial crisis of 1997. A decade in the doldrums followed.

In the last year there has been a huge boom with prices rising by 30% and more and rents increasing by 50% and more. Despite this prices still have not returned to the nominal levels of 1996.

Inflation adjusted real prices are still significantly lower than they were 10 years ago !

Of course it couldn't happen in the UK

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Of course it couldn't happen in the UK

I think regarding the recovery, that is correct. There will be no recovery for a lomg time here. Even a Fed research paper predicts that it's more going to look Japanese here.

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I think regarding the recovery, that is correct. There will be no recovery for a lomg time here. Even a Fed research paper predicts that it's more going to look Japanese here.

Could you post a link/title - I wouldn't mind a look at that...

TIA

Loafer

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Suspect we will do the same, price spike much higher than the last few HPI's and very similar in scope to Japan's. Many potential buyers still couldnt aford to buy (with proper jobs) with prices say 30% lower than today, so suspect this will go all the way down to around the 50% mark before we see bottom.

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Could you post a link/title - I wouldn't mind a look at that...

'The Baby Boom: Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates' [744KB PDF]:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf

Abstract: This paper explores the baby boom's impact on U.S. house prices and interest rates in the post-war 20th century and beyond. Using a simple Lucas asset pricing model, I quantitatively account for the increase in real house prices, the path of real interest rates, and the timing of low-frequency fluctuations in real house prices. The model predicts that the primary force underlying the evolution of real house prices is the systematic and predictable changes in the working age population driven by the baby boom. The model is calibrated to U.S. data and tested on international data. One surprising success of the model is its ability to predict the boom and bust in Japanese real estate markets around 1974 and 1990.

For some discussion see 'Federal Reserve: The Baby Boom: Predictability In House Prices And Interest Rates.':

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=21315

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So it looks like one shouldn't STR at least until 2011 according to that graph on the Fed paper.

The drop in 2005 actual figures was a bear trap (he says licking his foot, even though he was trapped a good year earlier).

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Real estate prices (and rents) collapsed in Singapore following the Asian financial crisis of 1997. A decade in the doldrums followed.

In the last year there has been a huge boom with prices rising by 30% and more and rents increasing by 50% and more. Despite this prices still have not returned to the nominal levels of 1996.

Inflation adjusted real prices are still significantly lower than they were 10 years ago !

Of course it couldn't happen in the UK

But crashes only happen in places like the US, Spain and Ireland where there is lots of land to build lots of new houses.

Apparently in dense urban countries like the UK, Singapore and Japan, where you can only build small flats, it is not possible to have a crash.

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Thanks, Goldfinger.

Pretty scary reading. I must say the plateau looks longer than I would have expected, but the drop is something else...!

Very interesting graphs.

Look fairly accurate in comparison.

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So it looks like one shouldn't STR at least until 2011 according to that graph on the Fed paper.

The drop in 2005 actual figures was a bear trap (he says licking his foot, even though he was trapped a good year earlier).

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But crashes only happen in places like the US, Spain and Ireland where there is lots of land to build lots of new houses.

Apparently in dense urban countries like the UK, Singapore and Japan, where you can only build small flats, it is not possible to have a crash.

Apparently, the illusionary lack of free land somehow changes human brain neurones so them humans stop behaving in an irresponsible way creating boom and bust market movements.

Green belt in Japan, anyone?

Edited by refusnik

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