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This is my first post so please be gentle! I've been following this forum for a while and find the

topics of discussion to be fascinating and informative(well in most cases). A great way to stimulate some real discussions about the housing market.

I'm interested to know the if those who predict a HPC what % of them are home owners and the same for those

forseeing a bull market? There seems a distinct correlation between ones situation and their views on the hosuing situation.

Whilst there seems to be a talk of a huge HPC(a distinct possibility) is it also plausible there maybe a gradual deflation of the housing market over a long period of time?

As far as I can see a major HPC would require the general economy to enter a recession resulting in lower house prices, however given higher unemployment and interest rates would come in effect who is going to be in a position to take advantage of this situation? Is cash going to be king again?

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I sold a house 1 month ago. I moved 200 miles. I did this as there were no jobs where I was and I was trapped in a house I couldn't afford to run or leave.

Banked the money, moved to a cheaper area. Looking to seriously downsize.

So, at the moment - no job, no idea when I will get one (applying but never hear a thing back) .... and so no idea where a job might be or on what money

So sitting on my nest egg, letting the interest stack up.

1) IF prices stay still, I can afford to buy the size house I want for 2/3rds of my pot

2) IF prices go up, I can spot that and only "lose" £10-20k

3) IF prices go down over the next 3 years by just 10% and I keep saving my pennies, I will be better off by about £30-35k by waiting to see.

4) IF of course they go down 30% over the next 5 years, I continue to save and if I get a job and save more .... I'll be able to buy 1 and still have the money I have today.

I have no pension and am getting on a bit, so really more interested in getting a job sorted in the next 6 months, but Scenario 4 would stop me having to worry about not having a pension.

Edited by ScaredEitherWay
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I'm a home owner.

Downsized last year from a 360k place to a 200k place. Cleared my mortgage and now enjoying the time spending money on life's nice things. (I am currently typing this poolside at a Florida villa at 10pm)

I'd love to see a price crash, just so that the young could afford homes, and they way things are going I think we'll get that crash, or at least a big correction.

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I'm a 'Neither', but I do feel as though the housing market is more likely to stagnate or be bearish than it is to be bullish in the coming months and years.

I am a home-owner who has wanted to move for some time. About this time last year, the plan was to 'move up the ladder', but the possibility of a HPC caused me to lose my nerve, and I decided at the time to sit tight.

After a year's thinking time, I've recently put my house on the market (as I'd still like to live somewhere else than I am now), but the current plan is to rent for the time being. If the housing market does stagnate or there is some kind of correction (of whatever severity), then a rental property seems a relatively safe place from which to 'watch the fireworks'!

Assuming I'm able to sell, then, whatever happens to the housing market, I will still have the equity from the sale of my house -- which I tend to think of in terms of 'cashing in my chips' after a winning streak in a casino: yes, I could potentially have made even more by sticking around, but the casino already makes enough profit as it is! ;)

By most people's standards (at least on HPC.co.uk it seems), my equity would be pretty modest, but it would still be more cash under my proverbial mattress than I've ever had, and, in a worse-case scenario (which, for me after selling, would be continuing bullishness in the housing market), I'd just have to mourn the loss of whatever the difference is between the on-going HPI and whatever growth I can manage with my equity.

I feel as though I'm just trying to play the odds to increase the chances of a positive outcome for myself. Time will tell.

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I'm a 'Neither', but I do feel as though the housing market is more likely to stagnate or be bearish than it is to be bullish in the coming months and years.

I am a home-owner who has wanted to move for some time. About this time last year, the plan was to 'move up the ladder', but the possibility of a HPC caused me to lose my nerve, and I decided at the time to sit tight.

After a year's thinking time, I've recently put my house on the market (as I'd still like to live somewhere else than I am now), but the current plan is to rent for the time being. If the housing market does stagnate or there is some kind of correction (of whatever severity), then a rental property seems a relatively safe place from which to 'watch the fireworks'!

Assuming I'm able to sell, then, whatever happens to the housing market, I will still have the equity from the sale of my house -- which I tend to think of in terms of 'cashing in my chips' after a winning streak in a casino: yes, I could potentially have made even more by sticking around, but the casino already makes enough profit as it is! ;)

By most people's standards (at least on HPC.co.uk it seems), my equity would be pretty modest, but it would still be more cash under my proverbial mattress than I've ever had, and, in a worse-case scenario (which, for me after selling, would be continuing bullishness in the housing market), I'd just have to mourn the loss of whatever the difference is between the on-going HPI and whatever growth I can manage with my equity.

I feel as though I'm just trying to play the odds to increase the chances of a positive outcome for myself. Time will tell.

Correct me if I am wrong but it appears you have a mortgage ? By definition that means you are NOT a home owner. That is one of the problems we have in this country. Everyone around me talking about how they are 'Homeowners'. I will repeat this simply for the hard of thinking:

YOU ARE NOT A HOME OWNER UNTIL YOU OWN A HOME !!!! And having a mortgage means you DON'T own a home !!

Why do so many people in this country think as soon as you get a mortgage you are a 'homeowner' ?

It really baffles me....

PS If Olaghai Jones does not come into this category I apologise but I am just talking generally ;)

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Correct me if I am wrong but it appears you have a mortgage ? By definition that means you are NOT a home owner. That is one of the problems we have in this country. Everyone around me talking about how they are 'Homeowners'. I will repeat this simply for the hard of thinking:

YOU ARE NOT A HOME OWNER UNTIL YOU OWN A HOME !!!! And having a mortgage means you DON'T own a home !!

Why do so many people in this country think as soon as you get a mortgage you are a 'homeowner' ?

It really baffles me....

PS If Olaghai Jones does not come into this category I apologise but I am just talking generally ;)

What if you have a mortgage but is more than off set by your savings, are you a homeowner or not?

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Correct me if I am wrong but it appears you have a mortgage ? By definition that means you are NOT a home owner. That is one of the problems we have in this country. Everyone around me talking about how they are 'Homeowners'. I will repeat this simply for the hard of thinking:

YOU ARE NOT A HOME OWNER UNTIL YOU OWN A HOME !!!! And having a mortgage means you DON'T own a home !!

Why do so many people in this country think as soon as you get a mortgage you are a 'homeowner' ?

It really baffles me....

PS If Olaghai Jones does not come into this category I apologise but I am just talking generally ;)

By your definition of a home-owner, Ccc, I am not one. I had assumed that the OP's definition was simply someone who was not a tenant or someone living with their parents or similar[1].

Sorry if I misunderstood the OP's question, or if I was misleading in my post regarding my status.

[1] Perhaps the OP could clarify what they meant by 'homeowner' in their post?

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I'm not a homeowner. Was mortgage free & home owner, but sold up 3 weeks ago & now staying with a friend waiting for the crash? I hope! As soon as possible please as I would like my own roof over my head again!

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I'm 4 weeks away from STR. Been a mortgage owner for 10 years - needed to move for work and decided I wasn't happy to speculate all my hpi wealth on a bog standard semi. I accept it may all f*** up and think at the moment there's a 60-70% risk to downside in house prices. Figure even if there isn't a crash I'll make more in a year on my equity than I would on a house. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and am happy to take the risk.

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I'm 4 weeks away from STR. Been a mortgage owner for 10 years - needed to move for work and decided I wasn't happy to speculate all my hpi wealth on a bog standard semi. I accept it may all f*** up and think at the moment there's a 60-70% risk to downside in house prices. Figure even if there isn't a crash I'll make more in a year on my equity than I would on a house. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and am happy to take the risk.

I wouldn't worry too much, not unless you've poured your heart and soul into the place. I sold my house back in late 2004. It's a very liberating feeling. Since I sold the house has probably gone up in value by about the same as the interest that I've received on the money and investments. I wouldn't have sold the place if it was my a 'home' that I cherished; no chance. The most interesting point is that I could rent back the same house for less than the interest on a deposit account in the same period of time. Now there's a clue to how bad things have got.

I'm working overseas for the next five years or perhaps longer and wouldn't buy another house, investment or otherwise, back home in the Britain. It doesn't stack up for me.

Good luck.

Edited by Xurbia
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Correct me if I am wrong but it appears you have a mortgage ? By definition that means you are NOT a home owner. That is one of the problems we have in this country. Everyone around me talking about how they are 'Homeowners'. I will repeat this simply for the hard of thinking:

YOU ARE NOT A HOME OWNER UNTIL YOU OWN A HOME !!!! And having a mortgage means you DON'T own a home !!

Why do so many people in this country think as soon as you get a mortgage you are a 'homeowner' ?

It really baffles me....

PS If Olaghai Jones does not come into this category I apologise but I am just talking generally ;)

Actually, from the legal point of view the homebuyer (with a mortgage) owns the house from day 1.

So the definition 'homeowner' is accurate

(sorry ccc, but you are wrong in your thinking)

Edited by Without_a_Paddle
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Have lived in the same house for over twenty years, the mortgage is very small and has just a few years to run. You couldn't buy a good car for what we owe. Sadly I had to retire early from work due to health problems and my pension is about half my previous salary to we have had to cut to our much reduced cloth. I would have liked to have moved so a semi in a nicer area but we just couldn't afford to make the jump 10 years ago, not without living on baked beans and no holidays , it is totally impossible now.

As my family are getting older 17& 14yrs I don't think there's much point now, we may as well finish off the mortgage here and save to help hubbie get of the working treadmill a bit sooner, depends what happens job/ economy wise though. Best laid plans and all that. I will not be helping my kids to get on the property ladder.

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I'm interested to know the if those who predict a HPC what % of them are home owners and the same for those

forseeing a bull market? There seems a distinct correlation between ones situation and their views on the hosuing situation.

Well, just for the record: I am not a homeowner. I started renting when I left home to go to university, and continued to do so on graduation. Mostly that was because even if I'd been able to lay my hands on the cash for a deposit, the commitment of buying a house wouldn't have made sense - starting out in my career, I wouldn't have wanted to be tied down to one location like that.

Nowadays, I am still renting (together with my wife). We have saved a fair bit of money over the years: easily enough that we could comfortably buy a fairly decent house in our area today, with plenty of cash left over from a 20% deposit, and still afford the mortgage payments even if rates hit 9%. But it's still so much cheaper and more convenient to rent. The only reason we really would like to own our own house is to have a little more security in which to start a family, and perhaps to be able to make a few alterations here and there.

I firmly believe that UK property is massively overvalued, and has been for several years. I am not "predicting a crash", in as much as I am not predicting anything in particular. Who knows what crazy scheme the government will come up with to prop up the market next? But I do expect the ratio of house prices to average incomes (and to rents) to return to normality sooner or later. The only reason we have today's prices is that people have been able to afford to pay them. Looking at the wider economic signs, I believe that era of cheap and easy credit is going to end within the next few years. This is why I wear my "bear" badge.

Really, I don't want to have anything to do with the "property market", and I never did - it does not interest me. I cannot get excited about the idea of investing in property. What really attracted me to this site is the number of people who can see the damage that rampant HPI is doing to our society and our economy. I was beginning to think I was the only person in the world who could see the other side of the coin, so to speak.

Perhaps one day I will buy a house, or buy some land a build a house on it, or something, but home ownership is not even close to being in the "top ten things I want to achieve with my life" list.

Well, I hope that answered your question. :)

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Correct me if I am wrong but it appears you have a mortgage ? By definition that means you are NOT a home owner. That is one of the problems we have in this country. Everyone around me talking about how they are 'Homeowners'. I will repeat this simply for the hard of thinking:

YOU ARE NOT A HOME OWNER UNTIL YOU OWN A HOME !!!! And having a mortgage means you DON'T own a home !!

Why do so many people in this country think as soon as you get a mortgage you are a 'homeowner' ?

It really baffles me....

PS If Olaghai Jones does not come into this category I apologise but I am just talking generally ;)

What a silly comment to make. :rolleyes: What's your point? Are you saying that mortgages are bad? Perhaps you're advocating that we all rent for 25 years while saving, then buy our first house for our retirement? Or are you just being pedantic :rolleyes: ?

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Guest Shedfish

nope, not a homeowner. never been... never been able to afford one, until the last 2 years. what a time to think about buying!

if this massive generational theft thing doesn't calm down, i'll be moving abroad. peoples' price expectations are just unrealistic

between amnesia and denial, is where we are. possibly much closer to denial

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I am just a few weeks away from STR and so is my partner of 2 years - ostensibly because we want to live together and renting seems a very quick way to do this. But in reality I think the market is going to crash and I may never sell the flat if I do not do it now. I have some very bad experience of this having been through it all in the late 80s early 90s. And the current climate is making me very nervous indeed.

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What a silly comment to make. :rolleyes: What's your point? Are you saying that mortgages are bad? Perhaps you're advocating that we all rent for 25 years while saving, then buy our first house for our retirement? Or are you just being pedantic :rolleyes: ?

You're implying mortgages are a good thing? It could be argued that mortgages are the reason why most people need a mortgage to buy a house.

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Guest Shedfish

saving and renting can work - it has for me, anyway. i teetered on the point of buying in Jan 05, but dcided not to.

in that time extreme saving plus cheap renting has so far more than halved my potential mortgage term, and saved me nearly 100k net.

the only additional costs being some pollyfilla and a lick of paint when i move out, and having to bite my lip when friends discuss the size of Beeny's baps, or whether 'donnington is the new kensington daahling'

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This is my first post so please be gentle! I've been following this forum for a while and find the

topics of discussion to be fascinating and informative(well in most cases). A great way to stimulate some real discussions about the housing market.

I'm interested to know the if those who predict a HPC what % of them are home owners and the same for those

forseeing a bull market? There seems a distinct correlation between ones situation and their views on the hosuing situation.

Whilst there seems to be a talk of a huge HPC(a distinct possibility) is it also plausible there maybe a gradual deflation of the housing market over a long period of time?

As far as I can see a major HPC would require the general economy to enter a recession resulting in lower house prices, however given higher unemployment and interest rates would come in effect who is going to be in a position to take advantage of this situation? Is cash going to be king again?

I own a house (with no mortgage before some pedant starts yelling at me) and I have no intention of selling it since I view it as somewhere to live, not an investment. If prices falls radically (say 40-50%) then I'd quite like to buy a bigger house but I'm happy enough where I am in the interim. For my money, there's going to be some volatility over the next year or so but I don't yet see any trigger that could cause a true crash. Some things that would make me change my mind:

- a further material rise in oil prices to say 100USD a barrel at the current GBP/USD exchange rate

- China floating it's currency fully and abandoning the USD peg

- major non-seasonal food price inflation

- a major fall in the value of GBP

All of these have the potential to cause interest rates to rise rapidly - rate of 8% or more would be guaranteed to bring the housing market crashing down in spectacular fashion.

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Well we are mortgage owners, jumped off the ladder for 2 years which one way or the other cost us over £150k, bad decisions and waiting two years.

We can still afford our repayment mortgage and tbh I see houses selling for 1/2% increases, things have peaked and it's now business as usual, they seem to have got away with it for now.

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Actually, from the legal point of view the homebuyer (with a mortgage) owns the house from day 1.

So the definition 'homeowner' is accurate

(sorry ccc, but you are wrong in your thinking)

There's always one. "You don't own a home with a mortgage"

As always W_a_P you give the legal definition and not one that makes someone feel better.

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